Economy
Metalformers’ business outlook worsens
Written by Ethan Bernard
May 30, 2024
Most metalformers expect economic activity to be level to down in the coming months, according to the May Business Conditions Report from the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).
Every month, PMA conducts a survey of ~100 metalforming companies in the US and Canada. The results provide an economic indicator for the manufacturing sector for the next three months.
In the May report, only 19% of the respondents said they expect an increase in general economic activity in the next three months, down from 21% in April. Additionally, 26% foresee a decrease in activity, up from 12% in April, while 55% predicted no change in activity vs. 67% a month earlier.
“For most of this year, metalformers’ expectations for business conditions were fairly steady,” David Klotz, PMA president, said in a statement on Thursday.
However, he noted that “this month’s survey shows that members are increasingly concerned with a slowdown in the economy, trade conflicts that could further increase the costs of important inputs including steel and aluminum, and a lack of progress on the tax package in Congress.”
PMA said metalformers predict only slight changes in incoming orders, with 49% of survey respondents expecting no change in orders during the next three months (vs. 54% in April); 32% predicting orders to increase (vs. 33% in April); and 19% forecasting a drop in orders (vs. 13% a month earlier).
For current average daily shipping levels, PMA said levels remained virtually unchanged in May. In the survey, 49% reported no change in shipping levels (vs. 48% in April); 21% logged an increase in levels (equal with last month); and 30% posted a drop in levels (vs. 31% in April).

Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in Economy

SMU Community Chat: Tariff-induced panic purchases, inflation, and calculating costs
Chief executive of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Tom Derry highlighted how reactive buying behavior has shifted the market into a quiet demand period. Derry presented ISM data during the weekly SMU community chat.

Architecture billings still sluggish despite project inquiry uptick
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a leading indicator for non-residential construction activity, declined for an eighth straight month in June.

Beige Book: Tariff pressures mount, flat outlook
All districts reported “experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction.”

Steel exports recovered in May but still historically low
US steel exports rose 10% from April to May but remained low compared to recent years. This came just one month after exports fell to the lowest level recorded in nearly five years.

AISI: Raw steel production ticks up near recent high
The volume of raw steel produced by US mills inched higher last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). After steadily increasing in April and May, domestic mill output stabilized in early June and has remained historically strong since.