SMU Data and Models

Apparent steel supply eases in August
Written by Brett Linton
October 17, 2024
The volume of finished steel entering the US market declined in August from July, according to SMU’s analysis of data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply,’ we calculate this monthly rate by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.
Apparent supply registered 8.30 million short tons (st) in August. Supply declined by 1%, or 76,000 st, from the month prior and is 2% below the average monthly rate of 2024 (8.43 million st). Recall that earlier this year supply reached a 21-month high in May at 8.90 million st. This time last year apparent supply totaled 8.56 million st.

Trends
To smooth out the variability seen month to month, we can calculate supply levels on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better show long-term trends. As shown in Figure 2, supply on a 3MMA basis has generally trended downward over the past three years, following the late 2021 peak of 9.87 million st. The 3MMA has eased each of the past three months, following May’s 11-month high of 8.70 million st. The August 3MMA is now down to a six-month low of 8.46 million st. Compare this to the 2023 monthly supply average of 8.49 million st and the 2022 average of 8.83 million st.

Looking across the last four months, August apparent supply is on the lower side of recent rates. Over this period we have witnessed a recovery in domestic mill shipments, fluctuating finished imports, and strengthening exports. The decline from July to August was primarily due to a 183,000-st (9%) decline in finished imports and a 24,000-st (3%) increase in exports, more than half of which was negated by a 132,000-st (2%) rise in domestic shipments.

Figure 4 shows year-to-date (YTD) monthly averages for each statistic over the last four years. The average monthly supply level for the first eight months of 2024 now stands at 8.43 million st, 3% less than the same period last year. The highest YTD monthly average in our recent history was for 2022 at 8.91 million st. In this time we have seen consistent growth in finished imports, while domestic shipments and total exports have fluctuated.

To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.

SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.

Service centers: Mill orders down marginally in May
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a third straight month in May, but only marginally.