Features

Steel exports slip to 10-month low in October

December 12, 2024

US steel exports declined further in October to the lowest monthly rate recorded this year, according to recently released US Department of Commerce data. The volume of steel exiting the country has declined for two months in a row after reaching a one-year high in August. On an annualized basis, steel exports have trended downward since February but remain strong relative to volumes seen over the past five years.

Steel exports declined 2% month on month (m/m) to 744,000 short tons (st) in October, 12% lower than the August peak. October exports were 7% less than the average monthly rate of 2024 to date (797,000 st), but 2% greater than the same month last year (728,000 st).

The majority of steel exported from the US is destined for US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. The majority of exports in October were shipped to Mexico (58%), followed by Canada (36%). Other notable recipients included China, Brazil, the Bahamas, France, Italy, and Germany at less than 1%, respectively.

For more detailed export data by product and country, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.

Monthly averages

Looking at steel exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can dampen monthly variations (Figure 2, left). After reaching a five-year high of 887,000 st in July 2023, 3MMA export volumes sharply declined in the second half of 2023, then partially recovered in the first four months of 2024. The 3MMA has since trended downward again but remains healthy through October at 782,000 st.

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to further highlight long-term trends (Figure 2, right). From this perspective, steel exports have strengthened since bottoming out in 2020. In February of this year the 12MMA rose to a five and a half year high of 805,000 st, then eased through September to a 15-month low of 774,000 st. The 12MMA recovered slightly in October to 776,000 st.

Exports by product

Looking specifically at flat-rolled exports, we saw mixed movements from September to October on the six products we track, with half increasing and half declining. A few notable trends through October figures:

Galvanized exports recovered 3% m/m but remain at the fourth-lowest monthly rate seen this year.
Cold-rolled coil exports surged 19% m/m, now at the highest volume recorded in almost 13 years.
Exports of plate cut lengths and other-metallic coated both declined to 10-month lows.

Compared to levels one year ago, October exports by product were overall up, with four products higher this year and two lower. Significant year-on-year (y/y) changes were witnessed in coiled plate exports (+52%), cold-rolled sheet (+38%), other metallic coated (-23%), and hot-rolled coil (+16%).

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.