Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by Brett Linton & Ethan Bernard
December 19, 2024
What would you do if you had a time machine? Would you lobby Ford to keep the F-150 made of steel? Would you become the most successful purchasing manager in steel history, with a keen knack for being one step ahead of price volatility? Or would you go forward, maybe hit up 2050 to see how all the fuss turned out with those carbon neutral targets?
Well, here at SMU, we can’t go forward. But we can look back. So as we wind down for the final two issues of 2024, we’re going to peer into the rearview of Decembers past: one year ago, five years ago, 10 years ago, and 100 years ago. Let’s take a look.
December 2023
Of course, the big news from December last year was Nippon Steel’s play for U.S. Steel. That was to the tune of a $14.9-billion offer. (You can find our original article here.)
One year later, and this one is still very much with us. The US Committee on Foreign Investment’s (CFIUS) national security review decision is expected any day now. So this could be one we close the book on in 2024. Or, we just might get thrown a curveball.
A takeaway for me is just how fast the received wisdom can change on a subject. The transaction went from being regarded as a nearly sure thing to high skepticism that it would be OK’d. Still, 2024 was quite a political year and it’s hard to imagine that didn’t affect the calculus of how the deal would pan out.
December 2019
Searching through SMU’s December 2019 archives, I found this timely Dec. 22, 2019, piece from trade attorney and current SMU columnist Lewis Leibowitz: “Leibowitz on Trade: House Votes to Approve USMCA.”
He speaks of the “protectionist” impulses in USMCA as compared to its predecessor, NAFTA.
With all the new talks of additional tariffs under Trump 2.0, and a review of the USMCA set for 2026, we’ll see what changes will come to the agreement. How will they affect the North American trading bloc?
The article’s conclusion stands out to me in particular, but perhaps in ways the author didn’t originally intend:
“I think we are in for an eventful 2020. I look forward to discussing the issues with you over the coming year.”
Leibowitz wrote that before most people had any familiarity with the Chinese city of Wuhan.
An eventful 2020, indeed!
Even further back…
And now for a real sense of history, I will turn over the reins to SMU Senior Analyst Brett Linton. He started with SMU way back in 2010, so history is a bit of his specialty.
December 2014
Ten years ago, steel prices were also gradually trickling lower. In the last week of December 2014, our hot-rolled coil average price dropped to a year-and-a-half low of $600 per short ton (st). Adjusted for inflation, that’s about $790/st – more expensive than the prices we are seeing today!
100 years ago!
Now, if we take a trip back a whole century, our friend Google says that hot-rolled steel prices were in the ballpark of $50/st in 1924. That’s the equivalent of paying about $890/st in today’s dollars.
2025?
With Jan. 1 just around the corner, this next year remains unwritten. Here at SMU, we’re hoping it’s a prosperous one and full of abundance for all of you!
We thank you for your continued interest in Steel Market Update!

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett Linton
Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.