Features
Shipments of HVAC equipment slip through November
Written by Brett Linton
January 14, 2025
Monthly shipments of heating and cooling equipment decreased from October to November, according to the latest data released from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).
November shipments fell 12% month on month (m/m) to 1.69 million units (Figure 1, left). This follows typical seasonal declines, as the monthly decrease from October to November has averaged -11% over the last six years.
While lower, November 2024 shipments were the second-highest for any November in our 16-year history, just below November 2021’s 1.78 million units.
Trends
To smooth out seasonal fluctuations, monthly shipment data can be recalculated on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to better highlight trends. On this annualized basis, total shipments have trended upward since the start of 2024. The 12MMA through November has risen to a 19-month high of 1.85 million units (Figure 1, right). This surge follows a significant decline occurring from mid-2022 to the end of 2023, which followed the post-Covid surge.
Shipments by product
- Water heaters: Shipments decreased 11% month over month (m/m) in November to 715,000 units, 8% lower than levels seen one year prior. Recall the two-year high of 887,000 units recorded back in March.
- Warm air furnaces: Following September’s 23-month high, shipments declined again in November, falling 8% m/m to 285,000 units. Compared to the same month last year, November shipments were 15% higher this year.
- Air conditioners and heat pumps: Shipments fell in November for the fifth consecutive month, down 13% m/m to 707,000 units. While down, shipments were 55% higher than the same month last year. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, with slowdowns experienced throughout the winter months as evident in Figure 2.
The full press release of this data is available here on the AHRI website.
An interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data is available here on our website. If you need assistance logging in to or navigating the website, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features
Final Thoughts: Survey says edition
SMU’s latest survey results indicate that steel market participants think sheet prices are at or near a bottom. But most also think there is limited upside once they inflect higher.
SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.
Leibowitz: When the shutdown should end
There is no doubt that the current government shutdown reflects the vast divisions between the extremes of American politics, society, and even geography. Almost all Americans agree that government is necessary, but voters disagree...
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.
SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.