Steel exports recovered in May but still historically low

The vast majority of US exports (>90%) are sent to US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. In May, 58% of exports were sent to Mexico and 34% to Canada. Other notable destinations (each accounting for 1% or less of total May exports) included Sweden, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, the United Kingdom, the Bahamas, India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Italy. For more detailed export data on specific products or countries, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.

Monthly averages show downward trends

Examining exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can help smooth monthly fluctuations (Figure 2, left). On this basis, exports peaked in July 2023 at a five-year high of 887,000 st, and have trended lower since. May’s 3MMA fell to a four-and-a-half-year low of 639,000 st.

To eliminate seasonal variation, exports can be annualized as a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to highlight broader trends (Figure 2, right). From this perspective, exports have also weakened since 2023 but remain above 2019-2022 levels. The 12MMA declined for the fourth-straight month in May to 716,000 st, the lowest rate since July 2021. For reference, the 12MMA reached a five-and-a-half-year high of 805,000 st in February 2024.

Exports by product

Exports of all six flat-rolled steel products we track increased from April to May. Despite this, most products remain near historical lows and are below their respective 12MMA rates. Significant movements from April to May include:

• Plate-cut-length exports increased 6% from the previous month’s almost five-year low
• Coiled plate exports recovered 28% from a two-year low and are now at a four-year high.
• Hot-rolled sheet exports rebounded 32% from a two-year low, completely negating April’s decline.
• Cold-rolled exports rose 11% from the third-lowest monthly rate seen in the past year.
• Galvanized sheet exports increased 6% from one of the lowest levels of the last three years.
• Other-metallic coated exports jumped 35%, moving from a near five-year low to a four-year high.

Figure 4 shows a history of exports by product on a 3MMA basis.

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.