This segment of the Steel Market Update newsletter is the area where I get to provide information about Steel Market Update, my views and opinions on various subjects and notifications/reminders about events or other items I think important for our readers. I rarely dive into politics or political issues as I know the SMU membership […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute continues to support the Trump administration’s plan to ease vehicle fuel economy and emissions standards. In a submission to the EPA during the public comment period that ended Oct. 26, AISI expressed its support of the general direction of the proposal, which would establish a standard that balances the […]
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices showed annual home price gains dipped below 6.0 percent for the first time this year posting at 5.8 percent, indicating price gains may be weakening. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index rose just 0.6 percent month-over-month. The 20-city Composite eased downward 0.4 percent from July to register a 5.5 percent […]
There is one issue I have found when relying on collection of pricing data just through our flat rolled and plate steel market analysis (survey). What I am finding is the survey data is difficult to trace back to the individual who is reporting and, therefore, is difficult to address anomalies in the numbers. I […]
Finally, I am back in my office after what seems like one long continuous trip over the last six weeks. I expect to be in my office over the next few weeks until I head to Pittsburgh in mid-November to visit the CRU offices here in the United States. We have a couple of new […]
Sales of new homes fell in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553,000, the lowest level since December 2016. Sales dropped 5.5 percent from the previous month and 13.2 percent from September 2017, according to the latest report from the Commerce Department. “Home price gains and rising interest rates are slowing down the […]
Earlier today, I spoke to the RIPA/IPANA annual meeting about the steel industry, AD/CVD duties, Section 232 tariffs and a number of our proprietary products. No one fell asleep, which is always a good sign. I will be back in the office on Friday morning, and with the exception of one quick trip to CRU […]
For the past two weeks, Steel Market Update has been collecting data from the flat rolled and plate steel service centers in the United States who participate in our Service Center Inventories Index. The number of months of supply of flat rolled steel being held on the distributors’ floors increased to 2.8 months. Plate inventories […]
The growth of the Chinese economy has slowed, but their steel production is growing almost three times as fast as the rest of the world. Once each quarter, Steel Market Update publishes the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, […]
I am keeping the SMU Flat Rolled Price Momentum Indicator at “Neutral” as I do not yet see any clear-cut signs of a solid push higher on pricing. What I have seen is a possible short-term bottom to the lower end of our range. This helped take our hot rolled index average from $805 to […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update receive reports on imports broken down into district of entry and source nation. This report takes the regional analysis to the level of product detail. Our intent is to report on HR and CR sheet in alternate months in the rationale that the finer the detail steel buyers have […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update have access to reports on our website that break out the import tonnage into district of entry and source nation for six sheet and plate categories. SMU has now developed reports that drill down the HRC and CRC into product detail both nationally and for each district. We report […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel markets through an online questionnaire. We invite 640 individuals to provide their opinions about the flat rolled and plate markets, what are the driving factors behind pricing, lead times, and mill negotiations, as well as how they feel […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel markets through an online questionnaire. We invite 640 individuals to provide their opinions about the flat rolled and plate markets, what are the driving factors behind pricing, lead times, and mill negotiations, as well as how they feel […]
Existing home sales fell in September after a flat August with sales declining in all regions. September sales were a clear shift in the housing market, said the National Association of Realtors, with homes taking slightly longer to sell. Existing home sales declined 3.4 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 […]
The attitudes of steel buyers and sellers, as measured by this week’s SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index questionnaire, are slightly less optimistic than they were at the beginning of October as the market waits for a turnaround in the decline in steel prices. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers […]
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products ticked up slightly this month, according to returns from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Could this signal the end of the downtrend? This is an important question considering the domestic steel mills announced price increases just last week. Lead times for steel delivery are a […]
Steel buyers still have a strong bargaining position with the mills, but perhaps not quite as strong as a month ago. Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel characterize the mills in price negotiations. A slightly lower percentage report mills willing to negotiate spot prices on new orders placed this […]
Will the flat rolled mills be successful in collecting the $40 per ton price increase they announced last week? No, they will not, predict eight out of 10 steel executives who responded to this week’s Steel Market Update Market Trends questionnaire. Only about 20 percent believe the price increase will stick. Following are some insightful […]
Housing starts dropped 5.3 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,201,000, falling more than expected by economists. Multi-family housing led the decline, falling 12.9 percent, compared to 0.9 percent for single-family homes. Compared to a year ago, starts were 6.4 percent higher, said the Census Bureau and HUD. “Slight gains off […]
Heating and cooling equipment shipments in August were up 3.6 percent compared to one year ago, according to data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) on Wednesday. On a year-over-year basis, total monthly equipment shipments have increased every month since October 2016. Residential and commercial storage water heater shipments declined 7.9 percent […]
I had an interesting conversation with James (Jim) Banker, Jr., who is the Executive Vice President of NLMK USA late this afternoon. We discussed a couple of topics. One I described in an earlier article about their Allegheny Technologies Inc. slab tolling arrangement announced this morning. The second topic was about why NLMK USA has […]
It is always a struggle to find the proper footing after the domestic mills make a price announcement that, on its face, appears to be a way of stopping the sub-$800 offers and put a floor (however temporary) to the market. To me, it is quite telling when one or two mills that normally follow […]
International Monetary Fund economists forecast global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2018-19, 0.2 percentage point below their forecast six months ago. While still positive, the expansion has become less balanced and may have peaked in some major economies, the IMF reported in its October World Economic Outlook. Excerpts from the WEO report below clearly […]
The market has been searching for a bottom and perhaps found it this week as all the major flat rolled mills announced price hikes of $40 per ton on hot rolled, hot rolled P&O, cold rolled and galvanized steel products. Steel prices have seen a steady decline of around $80 per ton since this summer. […]
We saw more erosion in hot rolled steel prices this week based on the responses we received from our data providers throughout the day today. Benchmark hot rolled dropped to an average of $835 per ton, while other flat rolled products saw mixed results. Cold rolled rose as the low-end numbers disappeared from last week. […]
Planning activity for construction of nonresidential buildings declined in September, according to the latest Dodge Momentum Index. The Index slid 2.6 percent to a reading of 159.5. Both commercial and institutional planning projects were lower in September, falling 4.3 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. The Index has dropped for two consecutive months, but on a […]
I have chosen not to include the sub-$40 hot rolled being sold by JSW Ohio (former Mingo Junction/Acero Junction). The mill is using slabs and is having a difficult time getting the slabs from the port to their facility. This has led to some on-time issues. They have only sold about 20,000 tons, which is […]
We had a bit of a split regarding service center spot prices in the analysis we did of the flat rolled steel markets last week. Manufacturing companies overwhelmingly reported their steel service center suppliers as dropping flat rolled steel spot prices compared to what they were seeing just a couple of weeks ago. On the […]
Twice as many of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire expect flat rolled steel prices to remain the same or move higher. About 24 percent feel the downward price trend has bottomed, compared with 12 percent in last month’s returns. Steel Market Update’s current Price Momentum Indicator is pointing toward lower […]