Most indicators of manufacturing activity are still positive, but evidence of a slowdown is indisputable. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications and therefore will be brief […]
The metalforming industry is expecting a dip in business conditions in the next three months, according to the April 2019 Precision Metalforming Association survey. “The Business Conditions Report reflects the growing concern of metalforming manufacturers that the Section 232 steel tariffs are creating a drag on the U.S. manufacturing sector,” said PMA President David Klotz. […]
Global steel demand will top 1.75 billion metric tons by the end of next year, despite economic headwinds in many parts of the globe, predicts the World Steel Association in its April 2019 Short Range Outlook. Worldwide, steel demand will increase by 1.3 percent this year to 1,735 Mt, followed by further 1 percent growth […]
A six point increase to 10.1 in the general business index of the Empire State Manufacturing survey indicated a modest rise in manufacturing activity in April. New York manufacturers reported a slight rise in new orders and shipments. The new orders index rose to 7.5 from 3.0 in March, while the shipments index increased to […]
Net job creation in March totaled 196,000, an increase from an upwardly revised 33,000 in February. January was revised up by 1,000 to 312,000. Rising employment and wages are the main contributor to GDP growth because personal consumption accounts for almost 70 percent of GDP. Steel consumption is related to GDP; therefore, this is one […]
The International Monetary Fund has reduced its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for 2019, but increased it in each year 2020 through 2024. The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO) in April and October each year. On April 9, the following was published in the IMF blog: “After strong growth in 2017 and early […]
US Midwest HRC price volatility has increased markedly in recent months as government policy and inelasticity of domestic supply have led to large variations in physical market price. Concurrently, volume and open interest on the CME’s HRC futures and options contracts, settled on CRU’s US Midwest HRC price (“The CRU”) has surged as physical market […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The market had hoped that China would unveil a large stimulus package at the March NPC, but any expectation of a large boost to world growth and commodities demand has not come, yet. The current stimulus package is smaller, less potent and less positive for commodities demand than previous […]
Following a slower than expected first quarter, activity has begun to pick up in the nonprime/secondary steel market, report service center executives. “Maybe that’s good news for April going forward,” said Lisa Goldenberg, president of Delaware Steel of Pennsylvania, Fort Washington, Pa. Nonprime or secondary steel includes coils that are rejected because they failed to […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This is a quarterly analysis that SMU performs using data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the […]
President Trump’s now aborted threat this week to close the Mexican border over immigration prompted a coalition of industries to express their concerns about border trade. In a letter sent to National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney, the coalition discussed the need for all […]
The U.S. manufacturing sector lost 6,000 jobs in March primarily due to employment losses in the auto industry. In February, the sector gained 1,000 jobs, but was far below the average of 22,000 jobs gained per month in the prior 12 months. Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul said of the latest employment figures: […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 116 (April) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and four months from becoming the longest ever. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 118 (June) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and two […]
Editor’s note: Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence, a highly regarded economist and popular speaker, will once again make an appearance at Steel Market Update’s annual Steel Summit, scheduled for Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta. Click here for more information about the conference or to register. Below are excerpts of his recent comments on the likelihood […]
Rising trade tensions took a toll on global economic growth in 2018 and will create strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020, says a new report by the World Trade Organization. Global trade grew 4.6 percent in 2017 generating optimism that an upward momentum was beginning. Data from 2018, however, showed trade underperforming, with growth of […]
Selling the family business “is not just a personal choice, but what’s best for the company,” said Roy Berlin of Berlin Metals one year after selling his Hammond, Ind., service center operation to Olympic Steel. Speaking with Steel Market Update on his first day of retirement, “the first day of the rest of my life,” […]
Durable goods orders fell 1.6 percent in February, according to the latest Department of Commerce report. Core capital goods orders, which exclude defense and aircraft and are considered a measure of business investment, slipped 0.1 percent after a revised increase of 0.9 percent in January. Orders and shipments for primary metals and fabricated metal products […]
Global manufacturing had another weak month in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from February at 50.6. with components of the index either flat or seeing only slight changes. Output and new export orders inched downward. Prices were relatively stable in March with no change on the input prices index and output […]
The March ISM manufacturing PMI bounced back from a two-year low recorded in February. The Index rose to 55.3 from 54.2 supported by gains in new orders and employment, said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute of Supply Management business survey committee. Indexes for new orders and production rose 1.9 and 1.0 percentage points to […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Data released for Q1 2019 have been largely positive. The ISM Manufacturing survey reflects a moderating rate of expansion, but the reading of 54.2 in February shows a solid level of manufacturing activity with new orders, output, employment and backlogs squarely in “expansion” territory. Housing disappointed in 2018, but […]
Looking back at the key indicators for the month of March, steel prices saw a modest increase following mill price increase announcements in January and February. The benchmark price for hot rolled averaged $698 per ton, according to SMU data, up $16 from February, but flat with the price in January. Prices for cold rolled […]
April saw steel prices lose momentum as hot rolled dipped to an average of $662, cold rolled to $803 and galvanized G90 to less than $900 per ton. Even plate, which has been in tight supply, has now moderated to around $964 per ton from prices near or above $1,000 earlier in the year. Steel […]
The latest survey of metalforming companies by the Precision Metalforming Association revealed uncertainty about business activity during the next three months. A survey of 110 firms, in the March 2019 PMA Business Conditions Report, showed 37 percent expect improving business conditions during the period, 49 percent anticipate no change, and 14 percent expect business activity […]
A pullback in production and orders caused the Chicago Business Barometer to fall six points in March to a reading of 64.7. The barometer averaged 60.0 in the first quarter of 2019, a 3.5 percent drop from Q4 2018 and a decline of 3.3 percent compared to Q1 2018. “Although the barometer has comfortably remained above […]
Many e-commerce ventures have targeted the metals industry over the years with varying degrees of success, but one of the latest on the scene has ambitious plans to reinvent industrial business—thus its name, Reibus. Founded 10 months ago with offices in Atlanta, Reibus.com is an online business-to-business marketplace that allows buyers and sellers of steel, […]
Join us for CRU’s New York Steel Briefing on Monday, June 17, to hear our market outlook for steel, along with presentations and a panel discussion. The event is free to attend. Presentations will begin at 3:00 p.m. at the Westin New York at Times Square – 811 7th Avenue 53rd Street, New York, NY 10019 […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Growth of U.S. GDP in fourth-quarter 2018 declined to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the third and final […]
One of the primary drivers of currency change is interest rate differential between currency pairs. The March 20 announcement by the Federal Reserve will take some of the steam out of dollar appreciation that occurred last year. On March 21, the Associated Press wrote, “The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged March 20 […]
Producer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows steel losing ground to rival materials. Steel continues to become less competitive against aluminum, although the rate of change is slowing. In the case of plastic pipe compared to carbon steel pipe, steel is becoming dangerously uncompetitive. Prefabricated metal buildings are still challenged by […]