The Chicago Business Barometer hit a six-month high in June, gaining 1.4 points to post at 65.5. New orders and production also reached six-month highs, increasing 8.0 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively. Increasing demand led to a third month of growth for order backlogs. The indicator posted a nine-month high with firms reporting unfinished work […]
China’s share of global steel production is setting a new high each month. Global steel production was down by 1.1 percent in June, but May’s production hit an all-time high and June was the second highest month ever, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. In three months through […]
Given all the conflict over Trump administration trade policies and the potential for a ruinous trade war, optimism among some corporate executives is wavering. But if negative outlooks on trade are affecting corporate investment and spending plans, it is not yet apparent in the data, say two experts. A dip in cap spending is widely […]
Tariff worries have caused optimism among metalforming companies to wane, says the latest survey of the Precision Metalforming Association. PMA members are expecting orders to decrease in the next three months and fewer expect an improvement in economic activity. “The data confirms that the optimism expressed by our members at the beginning of the year […]
Editor’s note: This article was contributed by Lisa Morrison, principal economist with the CRU Group. From the standpoint of trade policy and its economic effects, it has certainly been another busy month. President Trump is now threatening another round of tariffs on China. This time, it’s a levy of 10 percent on $200 billion in […]
Durable goods orders, orders for items expected to last three years or more, increased 1.0 percent in June to $251.9 billion, according to the latest data from Commerce. The increase follows two consecutive monthly decreases. Transportation equipment orders led the gain with civilian aircraft recouping some of its 11.6 percent loss in May by jumping […]
In both Q1 and Q2 2018, the South Central region pulled ahead of the Pacific in total job creation, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The BLS released second-quarter employment data by state on Friday. The state data follows the national figures that were published on July 6 […]
Steel prices held the top spot on the IHS Markit PEG Engineering and Construction Cost Index for July. The survey of procurement executives showed construction costs have increased for 21 consecutive months, with July’s reading up 1.4 points from June to register 68.0. Prices for materials and equipment grew in eight of the 12 categories […]
While manufacturers generally reported favorable business conditions all over the United States, companies in all the Federal Reserve Districts pointed to Trump administration tariffs as cause for concern, according to the Fed’s July 18 Beige Book report. Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting […]
Manufacturing activity remained fairly brisk in New York State, despite dropping 2.4 points in July to a general business index reading of 22.6. A reading above zero indicates growth, and July’s reading was better than expected by economists. The new orders index slipped 3.1 points to 18.2, while shipments fell 8.9 points to 14.6. Delivery […]
The U.S. dollar is continuing to surge. Through July 6, the strength of the dollar was up by 5.7 percent in three months and by 1.1 percent in the previous 30 days. (See the end of this report for an explanation of data sources.) The Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar is reported several […]
In the last months, 14 of the 16 currencies that Steel Market Update tracks were down against the dollar, led by Turkey down by 29.4 percent, and Russia and South Africa both down by 8.5 percent. The Chinese yuan has declined by 7.9 percent in the last three months. Please see the end of this […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict a recession, but keep a close eye on the yield curve. Economists consider recessions to be a necessary evil to clear out distortions that have arisen in the economy. At Steel Market Update, we track several leading indicators of economic activity. Viewed individually, they offer […]
As the first state in the nation to require all new homes to have solar power, California’s recent decision mandating solar panels in residential construction is likely to increase demand for metal roofing systems, said the Metal Roofing Alliance (MRA), a non-profit trade organization. The initial cost of metal roofing is higher than conventional roofing […]
Steel shipments and inventories are increasing as the inventory-to-shipment ratio is decreasing, while new orders have exceeded shipments each month in 2018, indicating a healthy product turnover, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Census Bureau data. This is the third writeup of an analysis we began this year in which we investigate an […]
Add the United Steelworkers to the list of those opposed to President Trump’s nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court. President Trump announced Kavanaugh’s selection on Monday, commenting that “what matters most is not a judge’s political views, but whether they can set aside those views to […]
The U.S. economy created 213,000 net jobs in June, bringing total job creation to 2,374,000, an increase of 1.6 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Rising employment and wages are the basis of most U.S. gross domestic product growth as personal consumption accounts […]
I would like to comment on the letter from the Midwestern Service Center Executive published in Steel Market Update’s July 5 newsletter. First, to call a decrease of $200/ton a “decrease of that magnitude” may have been the way to describe it 10 years ago, but in times where domestic mills have made increases in […]
Global manufacturing is losing its momentum, said JP Morgan and IHS Markit in their latest Global Manufacturing PMI. The June PMI was at an 11-month low of 53.0 in June, still in expansion territory but at a gentler pace. Production grew at its slowest pace since July 2017 and new orders were at a 19-month […]
Manufacturers saw business rise in June at the fastest pace in four months. The ISM Manufacturing Index surpassed expectations by jumping to 60.1 percent from 58.7 percent in May. A reading above 50 indicates growth. New orders expanded for the 14th consecutive month, but inventories remained too low for a fourth month as suppliers struggled […]
Steel Market Update received the following comments regarding predictions made at the annual Steel Success Strategies Conference by Peter Marcus of World Steel Dynamics. Steel Market Update did not attend the conference, but we felt the substance of the issues raised by one of our readers would be of interest to all of our readers. […]
The Chicago Business Barometer hit its highest level since January, rising 1.4 points to 64.1 in June. Four of five components of the headline index strengthened in June, said MNI Indicators. Orders flowed in for a five-month high and order backlogs were 11.4 percent higher than in June 2017. Supplier lead times continued to lengthen, […]
U.S. treasury yields are surging and this is contributing to the recent advance in the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets. The dollar has strengthened by 4.5 percent in the last three months and also by 4.5 percent since Jan. 2. Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data […]
Production increased by 1.33 percent in May and for the first time exceeded 150 million metric tons, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. In three months through May, China grew by 7.7 percent year over year as the rest of the world grew by 3.3 percent. In 2018, […]
The growth of U.S. gross domestic product slowed in first-quarter 2018, but on a trailing 12-month basis has improved for the last seven quarters. The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter was 2.00 percent, down from 2.87 percent in Q4 2017, according to the June 28 report by the Bureau of […]
The growth of U.S. gross domestic product has improved for the last eight quarters on a trailing 12-month basis and in second-quarter 2018 was the best since third-quarter 2014. The first estimate of the growth of U.S. GDP in this year’s second quarter was 4.1 percent, up from an upwardly revised 2.20 percent in the […]
Economic indicators of manufacturing activity continue to look favorable for the rest of 2018. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications and therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect […]
Consumer confidence decreased in June and the three-month moving average (3MMA) declined for the second consecutive month, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in June was 126.4, down from 128.8 in May. The 3MMA decreased from 127.1 in May to 126.9 in June, which was 8.8 points […]
U.S. scrap exports expanded by 31 percent in the first four months of 2018, while total global scrap trade has been trending up since Q1 2016. Steel Market Update performs this analysis quarterly to help readers understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market and where the U.S. stands as a global player. This data […]
Durable goods orders fell unexpectedly in May, for a second consecutive month of decline. Orders for goods expected to last three years or more fell 0.6 percent following a revised 2 percent decline in April, according to the Commerce Department. The May dip should be looked at in relation to the upwardly revised April data, […]