Steel Market Update’s survey of steel buyers this week shows no signs of anxiety about a possible price correction in the coming months. Like steel prices, buyers’ attitudes have never been loftier. SMU’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index moved up four points to tie its all-time high of +79 as steel prices continued to rise and […]
Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week shows that lead times for deliveries of spot orders from the mills have shortened slightly on all flat rolled products. The dip of a half-week or less is not highly significant, however, as average lead times for hot rolled orders remain above 10 weeks, while those […]
This evening we published our SMU Mill Lead Times by Product analysis. I recently received a few questions on the subject: How do we gather our lead time data? Do we take into consideration the lead times being published by the individual domestic steel mills? How do we feel the information we report is indicative […]
Mark Millett, CEO of Steel Dynamics, had some interesting comments in this morning’s earnings conference call with analysts. Based on his comments, the domestic steel industry is capable of producing 90-95 million tons of steel annually. The demand for steel is closer to 120 million tons; in extremely strong markets in the past it has […]
One of the products developed by Steel Market Update over the past four years is our flat rolled and plate steel service center inventories and shipment analysis. I discussed it briefly in Thursday’s newsletter, but I want to go into more detail as I believe it is a report that many of you will want […]
Lobbying groups for steel consumers blasted a federal appeals court’s decision to uphold former President Donald Trump’s abrupt doubling of Section 232 tariffs on Turkey to 50%. The tariffs have already led to high prices, long lead times and shortages that have hurt downstream manufacturers, and the decision regarding Turkey could set a dangerous precedent by […]
Flat Rolled = 47.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 44 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories increased again in June, though service centers continue to report that they are unable to meet customer demand. At the end of June, service centers carried 47.6 shipping days of supply, up from the […]
Steel Market Update reported our service center inventories and shipment data to our data providers today. Our Premium level members will get the report at 1 p.m. ET tomorrow. I can whet your appetite by telling you that flat rolled inventories on a days of supply basis rose slightly, but are not yet at what […]
“It’s an absolute certainty we will have a stronger M&A market in the next couple years. There are a lot of businesses looking to buy and a lot of businesses looking to sell. There will be many more announcements of deals in the second half, especially the fourth quarter,” predicted Dan Sullivan, founder of Montrose […]
Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of monthly Key Market Indicators highlights that the road to recovery from the COVID-19 doldrums is far from over. Markers for the Present Situation have contracted a bit while Trends show small but positive moves from a month ago. The markers are not necessarily an evaluation of the economy’s journey from affliction to […]
Former President Donald Trump acted within the law when he doubled Section 232 tariffs on Turkey from 25% to 50% in August 2018, a federal appeals court said. The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upends a prior decision by a lower court – namely, by the U.S. Court of […]
So much for the summer doldrums. After a brief pause following Independence Day (and Canada Day), sheet prices have resumed their sharp upward trajectory. Hot-rolled coil prices are now over $1,800 per ton ($90 per cwt) while cold-rolled and galvanized base prices are above $2,000 per ton ($100 per cwt). If this pace of gains […]
I’ve heard more than a few times now that we should keep a close eye out for falling steel prices because, “Look what happened in lumber.” In case you’ve been under a rock (or tree), lumber prices fell more than 40% in June, their biggest monthly drop on record, according to CNBC and others. What […]
You may be tired of reading about it, but there is no ignoring the question: When will hot rolled coil prices finally peak? So many livelihoods depend on the answer. Unfortunately, Steel Market Update survey data clearly shows that no one knows. Roughly one-third of those polled this week believe steel prices will have peaked […]
Canada has launched an antidumping trade case against oil country tubular goods (OCTG) from Austria. The investigation by the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) – initiated on Wednesday, July 7 – stems from a complaint filed by Tenaris SA’s Canadian subsidiaries. “The CBSA will investigate whether the imports are being dumped and will make a preliminary decision […]
To those of you in the United States, welcome back from the Fourth of July Holiday. For those of you in Canada, Mexico and elsewhere, thank you for bearing with us as we took our last holiday prior to our conference at the end of August (23-25). Square Peg in a Round Hole? As we move […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to announce that Dan Sullivan, founder of Chicago-based Montrose Advisors, will be the featured speaker for our next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, July 14 at 11 a.m. ET. Montrose Advisors specializes in M&A among small- to mid-size privately held service centers, fabricators and manufacturers. Think Berlin Metals’ sale to […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to announce that Dan Sullivan, founder of Chicago-based Montrose Advisors, will be the featured speaker for our next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, July 14 at 11 a.m. ET. Montrose Advisors specializes in M&A among small- to mid-size privately held service centers, fabricators and manufacturers. Think Berlin Metals’ sale to […]
There will be no Steel Market Update published on Sunday, July 4th, due to the national holiday (USA). We will resume coverage on Tuesday, July 6th. We wish everyone a safe holiday filled with family and friends (at least for those who have been vaccinated). Interesting comments received earlier this week from a steel executive whom I […]
Canada has launched an anti-dumping trade case against oil country tubular goods (OCTG) from Mexico. The probe stems from a complaint filed by Regina, Saskatchewan-based Evraz Inc. NA Canada and Concord, Ontario-based Welded Tube of Canada, according to documents from the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA). The CBSA, which initiated its investigation on June 30, […]
Once Produced…Can We Even Get It Shipped? Transportation issues continue to plague the flat-rolled and plate steel markets. It’s bad enough that many steel mills are running one to four weeks late against their original promise date. We are hearing once the steel is produced it can take days to weeks of waiting for a […]
Change in the air…? We are beginning to hear of more hot rolled being available in the spot market. We are not (yet) hearing of mills taking prices below $1,680 per ton (which was the bottom of our range last week). During last week’s SMU Flat Rolled and Plate Steel Market Trends Survey, we noted […]
Readers asked me to discuss Section 232 and its possible future. Steel and aluminum tariffs have been around since 2018, not to mention other investigations on components of electric transformers made with electrical steel, autos and auto parts, and vanadium. I think that, under applicable law, certain of these cases have been resolved. I explain here […]
Last Tuesday, the Court of International Trade issued a major opinion in the massive litigation over China tariffs. As I’ve written before, the imposition of tariffs on more than $200 billion of imports per year from China has prompted a slew of lawsuits (more than 3,600 so far, including 6,500 separate plaintiffs), which could find […]
The Biden administration took office not only in the midst of a pandemic, but a global rethink of economic opportunity and outcomes. It’s one reason that global institutions, such as the WTO and the International Monetary Fund, are suffering from a lack of respect and influence, not only among general populations but opinion leaders and […]
I’ve noticed an increased focus on international issues reflecting moral and political subjects as opposed to economic ones, although these have been with us for a long time. Economists call this “virtue signaling.” The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) published an article on the subject a few years ago, defining “virtue signaling” as “the […]
Steel buyers’ sentiment saw a slight dip in the past two weeks but remains near record highs, in line with record-high steel prices and profitability. Respondents’ comments suggest they are slightly less bullish about their future prospects than their current situation: “Our prospects in next three months? Excellent. In six months? Good. We all know […]
Steel buyers’ sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, remains extremely optimistic, and hasn’t seen a change of any real significance in the past three months. Current Sentiment has averaged a reading of +75 and Future Sentiment an average of +65, plus or minus a few points, since late April as the market enjoys the […]
Let’s talk about lead times. Because the results from our latest survey caught my attention. This is the first time in since January-February that you can maybe discern a potential peak in pricing – at least judging by that metric. Lead Times: Trend or Head Fake I’m going to display our lead latest lead time […]
The market is watching anxiously for a sign that rising lead times have finally turned and will begin to shorten as mill production catches up with demand. Indeed, Steel Market Update data shows a slight dip in the average lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel products this week. But the same has […]