Flat rolled steel buyers are fairly optimistic about their chances for success in the current market, though the various metrics Steel Market Update uses to gauge future demand are sending mixed signals. One likely cause is the uncertainty injected into the market by the Trump administration’s now-delayed Section 232 investigation. According to the latest SMU […]
Nebraska began final hearings on the Keystone XL pipeline this week to determine if approval of the long-delayed project is in the best interest of its citizens. Nebraska is the last of three states that must give a thumbs-up for the project before the pipeline can finish winding its way from Canada’s Alberta province to […]
The lack of a committed market direction by service centers, coupled with strong imports and inventories that SMU believes are balanced to slightly bloated at the distributors, has prompted us to move our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. In an interesting development, twice as many manufacturing companies reported that flat rolled steel […]
In their pursuit of free and fair trade, U.S. steelmakers are often called protectionist—a label they increasingly resent. Steel industry trade groups, including the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Steel Manufacturers Association, have urged the Trump administration to take a harder stance on steel imports. Trade action, including new tariffs or quotas under […]
Responses to two questions in Steel Market Update’s latest flat roll market trends analysis elicited a clear consensus from our participants: The Trump administration’s delay in acting on Section 232 could open the door to more foreign steel imports. But the government should not necessarily penalize foreign countries just because they export a high rate […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for July was released on Friday with a gain in jobs that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The May result was revised down by 7,000 and June was revised up by 9,000 positions. Using a three-month moving average (3MMA), the July result was 195,000 jobs, which was pulled down […]
The weekly U.S. rig count took a slight dip, according to Aug. 4 data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes, Inc. The oil rig count declined by 1 to 765 rigs, while the gas rig count declined by 3 to 189 rigs, for a total of 954. The miscellaneous rig count was unchanged. Compared to […]
Despite getting pressure to adjust our SMU Price Momentum Indicator due to uncertainty associated with the Section 232 investigation and the lack of a recommendation to date, along with small signs of a need by one or two steel mills for orders on galvanized, SMU is continuing to reference flat rolled steel prices as moving […]
The following article is from responses left to a question we had in our early August flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. We inquired about how buyers and sellers of steel felt regarding steel prices with Section 232 somewhat sidelined for awhile. Results were mixed. Nearly half of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to represent buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel as being optimistic about their companies’ ability to be successful in both the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. As a single data point collected by Steel Market Update as part of […]
Flat rolled lead times have seen little change in the past month. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets based on responses to a comprehensive questionnaire. When looking at lead times, the analysis is restricted to responses from manufacturers and distributors, who accounted for 84 […]
Over the course of this week, Steel Market Update has been canvassing active participants in the flat rolled steel markets as we try to capture any changes in market trends. The more than 100 respondents we had this week provided us a snapshot on how steel mills are handling price negotiations. As a group, respondents […]
As a monthly average, prices on all flat rolled steel products recovered in July following a dip in June. The month of July ended with SMU’s Price Momentum Indicator continuing to point higher as the market waits to see if and when the Trump administration will act on Section 232 trade measures that could further […]
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded in July, though the PMI declined 1.5 percentage points to a reading of 56.3, reports the Institute for Supply Management in its latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The PMI has remained above the neutral 50.0 point for 11 consecutive months indicating growth in manufacturing. Although still at robust […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped nearly 7 points in July, falling to 58.9 from 65.7 in June and ending a run of five consecutive increases. All components of the indicator receded, but remained above 12-month averages. The July Barometer “should be viewed in the context of the underlying, upward trend in business sentiment witnessed since […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 in July indicating continued manufacturing growth across the globe. During the last four months, manufacturing expansion has remained steady at 52.6 in June and May, and 52.7 in April. Growth in June was again led by European nations with eight of the ten best-performing countries in Europe. […]
In the Key Indicators data released in July, both the present situation and trends have recovered from what now appears to have been a temporary downward blip in June. Trends lead the present situation by about four months. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those […]
This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the U.S. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, therefore we’ll be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the same direction. Our intention in summarizing them in […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that job creation has been positive in all regions of the country since Q3 2016, in the second-quarter data it released on Friday. Economy.com summarizes as follows: “The country’s labor market ended the second quarter on a strong note, with job growth in June that was stronger and more […]
Consumers are feeling better about the present economic environment and their expectations for the future, according to data from The Conference Board, which conducts a monthly Consumer Confidence Survey. Consumer confidence is the driver of consumer spending, which is the largest component of GDP and ultimately drives a large portion of steel consumption. The composite […]
Orders for durable goods jumped 6.5 percent in June for the largest increase since July 2014, said the Commerce Department on Thursday. Most of the gain, however, was due to a 131.2 percent surge in orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding aircraft and transportation, orders rose a more modest 0.2 percent. Core capital goods, which exclude […]
Metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada are expecting steady business conditions during the next three months, but expressed concerns about potential Section 232 tariffs. The PMA Business Conditions Report, prepared by the Precision Metalforming Association, showed most members are not anticipating any changes in general economic activity or incoming orders in the coming months. […]
A mild recession will impact residential and nonresidential construction in 2019, predicts the HARDI/ITR July quarterly report. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and ITR Economics, an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide […]
Architectural firms report that billings for design services increased in June despite higher construction costs for the industry and a shortage of qualified labor. The June Architecture Billings Index, published by the American Institute of Architects, registered 54.2 following a score of 53.0 in May. Billings have been on a generally upward trajectory over the […]
The steel market is waiting anxiously to see if the Trump administration places additional tariffs or quotas on steel imports. Opponents of the proposed Section 232 trade action say it will be bad for the U.S. economy, in particular U.S. manufacturers that will have to pay more for raw materials, making them less competitive versus […]
U.S. industrial production is in Phase B, accelerating growth, but the latest HARDI/ITR quarterly construction forecast warns that the next phase of the cycle, slower growth, is on the horizon. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled steel market. We invite 650 individuals representing approximately 625 different companies to participate by taking an online questionnaire. The questions cover a wide variety of topics that are germane to their unique industry segment. The two main groups asked to […]
Data from July 7, 2017, shows the U.S. rig count for the week was 950 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas, reports oilfield services company Baker Hughes, Inc. This is down 2 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs down 1 to 764 rigs, gas down 1 to 186 rigs, and […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen some erosion since peaking at +77 around March 1. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market and three to six months into the future. Buyers and sellers of […]
Flat rolled lead times remain flat compared to what we reported for early July, as well as one month ago. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets. This is done through the use of a comprehensive questionnaire focused on manufacturing companies and service centers, which […]