Sources for the following article are the Conference Board and SMU analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May to 97.3 in June then eked out a small gain to 97.4 in July. Included below is the official news release from the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the second week in a row, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
Durable goods orders fell sharply in June to $9.3 billion or a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent. Orders were down for the second month with transportation equipment leading the decrease. May’s estimate was revised downward to 2.8 percent. Demand was weaker in June for civilian aircraft and defense, which fell 58.8 percent, and 20.7 percent, respectively. […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the second quarter of 2016. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.7 percent in the second quarter, which was unchanged from the first quarter, down from […]
We pointed out a couple of weeks back that lead times have been slowly shrinking but are still longer than year ago levels. Lead times refer to the amount of time it takes to get an order placed today produced at one of the domestic steel mills. The steel mill lead times we are discussing […]
As lead times begin to come back in (shorten), we are seeing an increase in the percentage of our flat rolled steel survey respondents who are reporting the steel mills as willing to negotiate steel prices. Hot rolled continues to be the weakest product. It has the shortest lead time and we have heard from […]
According to Baker Hughes data from July 22, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 462 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 15 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 14 to 371 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 88 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs up […]
Since 2008, Steel Market Update has been measuring how steel buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment (which we call “Current Sentiment”). We also probe the same group of manufacturers, steel service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors on how they feel about their […]
Metalforming companies are expecting somewhat weaker business conditions during the next three months. The July survey by the Precision Metalforming Association showed only 22 percent of participants are expecting an improvement in conditions (down from 27 percent in June); those expecting no change remained relatively steady in July at 56 percent compared to 55 percent […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears, the latest value we have was dated July 15th (Figure 1). Our previous report was current as of June 26th which shortly followed the FOMC meeting of June 14th and 15th at which it was decided not to raise rates. This […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States turned negative this week, following a 28 week positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a percentage. A positive […]
The price of oil and natural gas have much to do with sales of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube, storage facilities as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural […]
What impact will Brexit have on the U.S. steel industry? Not much, says Metal Miner authorities Lisa Reisman, CEO & Executive Editor and Stuart Burns, Editor at Large, during a webinar presented July 13. The exit of the UK from the European Union is not likely to impact ferrous prices said Reisman. Instead steel prices […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 106.70 in November 2014 and has trended down ever since. The good news is that the three month moving average (3MMA) had positive growth month/month in June for the first time since September last year. […]
New York manufacturers reported flat general business conditions in the July Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline index fell from +6.01 points to +0.55, following the seesaw pattern seen over the past few months. The indexes for shipments and new orders both fell significantly to +0.70 and -1.82, respectively. In June they were +9.32 and […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 28th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a […]
PPG industries announced that it has completed its acquisition of MetoKote Corporation and its affiliates. MetoKote is a U.S.-based coatings services business with 2015 global sales of approximately $200 million. The transaction closed on July 1 for an undisclosed sum. MetoKote is headquartered in Lima, Ohio, and has more than 1,500 employees. MetoKote applies coatings […]
The statement of Erica L. Groshe Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Friday morning reads as though the increase in net non-farm employment of 287,000 in June was a fact as was the downwardly revised May number of 11,000. We at SMU don’t believe the May result has any credibility which is particularly […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through May 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Flat rolled steel industry participants continue to be optimistic about the markets, according to the recent flat rolled market trends analysis conducted by Steel Market Update. However, we are seeing a slightly less optimistic trend for this time of year compared to what we were reporting at the same point in time in 2014 and […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are not believers that the next move will be for higher flat rolled steel prices over the next couple of months. At least that is what the respondents to our most recent flat rolled steel questionnaire believe. Based on the analysis of last week’s survey, 60 percent of […]
According to Baker Hughes data from July 8, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 440 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 9 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 10 to 351 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 88 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Since 2008, Steel Market Update has been measuring how steel buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment (which we call “Current Sentiment”). We also probe the same group of manufacturers, steel service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors on how they feel about their […]
On Tuesday of this week Steel Market Update began canvassing the flat rolled steel industry through the use of our online survey which we use twice per month. We invited slightly more than 550 people to participate as we try to analyze market trends. One of the key areas of inquiry is that of lead […]
A second key subject addressed in our flat rolled steel survey regards negotiations between the domestic steel mills and their customers. We ask manufacturing companies and steel service centers to comment on whether their domestic mill suppliers are willing to negotiate spot steel pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The less […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 27th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a […]
The PMI for the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business rose 1.9 percentage points to 53.2 in June, expanding for the fourth consecutive month. New orders gained 1.3 points and production 2.1 percentage points for readings of 57.0 and 54.7, respectively. The employment index grew 1.2 points to 50.4 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 48.5, […]
Global manufacturing was subdued in June according to a reading of 50.4 on the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The PMI gained just 0.4 points with most of the solid improvement in the European Union. It should be noted that the data for the report was collated before the vote by the UK to exit the […]
This Key Markets Indicator report is something we produce for our Premium level clients. However, we thought that our Executive level readers would appreciate knowing… An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in […]
Andre Marshall stated in his “futures” article this evening that perhaps the market is a little too negative. The purpose of looking at the month of June in its totality is to provide another way to look at what just happened over the past month as you prepare for the next one. SMU Price Momentum […]