The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index of the US $ against our major trading partners is reported about one month in arrears. In one month through about April 12th this index weakened by 1.9 percent which was a sharp reversal from the previous seven month trend. The monthly BI is a “Real” […]
The Q2 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on May 4th. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 76 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
The domestic flat rolled steel mill lead times have begun to move out, according to the results from our flat rolled steel analysis questionnaire conducted this past week. We are seeing movement on all four products: hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume. Lead times had bottomed in January and February and we started to […]
The domestic steel mills are still willing to negotiate according to the majority of last week SMU flat rolled steel market survey respondents. However, for the first time in many months we are seeing a break in the “tell me what it’s going to take” negotiating tactic and more of the “here is our bottom, […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are split over whether or not the price increase announcements of two weeks ago will actually be collected. This past week we invited approximately 600 companies to participate in our flat rolled steel market survey. Of the more than 100 companies who responded fifty-three percent told SMU that […]
The Dodge Momentum Index rose a slight 0.8 percent in April to a reading of 122.6, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. Construction planning activity has been up and down in early 2015 but is higher than a year ago. In comparison, the April Index is 8.5 percent higher than April 2014. Planning for the […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful both now and into the future. However, Steel Market Update has been seeing small adjustments lower to both our current and future Sentiment Indices. Future Sentiment, which measures how buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability […]
CHICAGO, IL, May 6, 2015 – The Steel Tube Institute (STI) has announced the retirement of Executive Director Bill Wolfe after 13 years serving as head of the industry trade association. Joseph Anderson, who was named Hollow Structural Sections (HSS) Director last April, has been chosen as STI’s new Executive Director. Wolfe leaves behind a […]
This week the Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. is showing hot rolled coil price momentum continuing its downward trend for the 37th week in a row. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price […]
Steel buyers in the April ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to remain the same during the next six months but were more optimistic regarding sales and production in their specific industry. Forty percent of buyers expect the trend for sales and production to improve, compared to 30 percent in March. Fifty […]
Global manufacturing fell to a 21 month low in April according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index registered 51.0, down from 51.7 in March. “The April PMI shows a loss of momentum in global factory output in April, with production and new orders both decelerating,” commented Joseph Lupton, Senior Economist at […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their April report on May 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January, to 52.9 in February and to 51.5 in March it […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of March 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in March were 80,509,000 metric tons, an increase of 18.5 percent from the previous month and an increase of 8.9 percent […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last nine quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 5,992,000 and the states reported 5,895,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of Q1 GDP was 0.2 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained […]
Today is the final day of April and, as is our habit, we will review much of the critical data reviewed or created during the month. SMU Price Momentum Indicator remained at Neutral where it had been for the entire month. SMU has been forecasting a change in the momentum pushing prices from lower to […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose 6 points to 52.3 in April, beating analyst expectations for a reading of 50. The index fell to a five and a half year low in February before bouncing up five points to 46.3 in March. The index grew in four of its five components in April with New Orders […]
This week the Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. is showing hot rolled coil price momentum continuing its downward trend for the 36th week in a row. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price […]
The Trade Promotion Authority bill S.995, or “fast track bill” as it being called, passed the Senate Finance Committee last week by a vote of 20-6. The fast track portion gives the President the authority and guidelines to negotiate trade deals in exchange for a vote by Congress passing resulting trade agreements without amendment. The […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board fell sharply in April as March was revised upwards slightly. In April the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations fell from 101.4 to 95.2. The view of the present situation fell from 109.5 to 106.8 but the big change […]
Eight steel organizations across the world have united to address Chinese steel exports and overcapacity. In a letter to China, industry associations from North America, Latin America and Europe offered comments on China’s draft Steel Industry Adjustment Policy (2015 Revision) . The Policy is intended to realign the Chinese steel industry to market demand but […]
Latin America is China’s second largest market for steel exports, receiving 8.3 million tons of steel in 2014. Alacero, the Latin American Steel Association, was one of eight steel organizations representing steel interests in North America, Latin America and Europe to express concern over China’s “Steel Adjustment Policy 2015.” SMU asked Alacero to comment on […]
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, is among the eight steel organizations that united to present comments to the Chinese government on its Steel Industry Adjustment Policy 2015. SMU asked the organization provide their view on the Policy and the impact of Chinese steel exports on the EU steel market and industry. The following comments are […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.22 for March, down by 0.64 from February. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.63, down by 0.34 from February. January was the highest value ever of the 3MMA at 106.11. The Y/Y growth rate […]
The following article is a continuation of our Steel Buyers Basics series written by Mario Briccetti. Mario is Principal of Briccetti & Associates, a Supply Chain consulting firm, and can be reached at Mario@mbriccetti.com I’ve been getting ready for my presentation in SMU’s May Steel 101 workshop and as part of that presentation updating the […]
As we discussed at the beginning of the month April, Steel Market Update (SMU) will present our Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index at the beginning of our Sentiment articles. Future Sentiment provides a better look at what steel buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are thinking regarding their company’s ability to be successful three […]
Domestic mill lead times appear to have found bottom and are stabilizing at these lower than normal rates, based on the results of the latest Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market analysis (survey). Benchmark hot rolled lead times managed to eek above 3.0 weeks for the first time in a number of months (late […]
The willingness of the steel mills to negotiate flat rolled steel prices with end users and service center customers remains high based on the results from the Steel Market Update flat rolled steel survey. The issue is weak order books (see lead time article in today’s issue) and the domestic steel mills are looking for […]
The graphic below shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the 1st Q of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014, declined to 7.0 percent in […]