Hot rolled continues to be the weakest product according to those responding to this week’s flat rolled steel analysis. We found 82 percent of our respondents reporting the domestic mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled pricing. This is much higher than the 54 percent we reported two weeks ago and takes us back to […]
After a generally positive performance in 2015, the Architectural Billings Index started the year with a slip to 49.6 in January from December’s reading of 51.3. A score above 50 indicates growth in design services and below 50 indicates a decline. AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker called January “rocky” but noted “the fundamentals are mostly […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the seventh consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
Steel workers and chief executives from 17 European member states took to the streets in Brussels on Monday to protest the dumping of steel products and granting of market economy status to China. Market status would only worsen the European steel crisis, claimed protestors, and cost tens of thousands of jobs. EUROFER, the European Steel […]
On Monday there was a meeting between Russia and select OPEC members where they agreed to an oil output freeze at January levels in an effort to tackle a global supply glut. This was a closed door meeting in Doha between Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia. Evidently there was a caveat that other members […]
On Sunday Steel Market Update published an article about the Carrier announcement that they would be moving their manufacturing and distribution facilities from Indianapolis, Indiana to Mexico. The announcement got the attention of Donald Trump who mentioned it during the debates on Saturday. Our article and the news also got the attention of a number […]
Business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers in the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business conditions index picked up 3 points registering -16.6, its seventh consecutive month in contraction. The index was weaker than economist estimates of 10.0 to 10.50. Most indexes in the survey remained in contraction in February but […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of Chinese GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the fourth quarter of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.8 percent in the 4th quarter, and decelerating to its slowest pace since the […]
According to Baker Hughes data from February 12, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 541 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 30 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 28 to 439 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 102 rigs, and […]
Over the past few weeks Steel Market Update has been reviewing the lead times being published and/or provided to their customers in order to see if there are any significant changes. As a general statement we have found cold rolled and coated steels (galvanized, Galvalume, galvannealed) have extended lead times and are the tightest of […]
This report summarizes total steel supply annually from 2007 through 2015 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the sixth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
The long awaited customs bill is headed to the Senate for approval on Thursday, Feb. 11. If Senate approves the conference report of the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act (H.R. 644) it will move on to the White House for the President’s signature. The bill is designed, among other things, to streamline the flow […]
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Board of Directors this week approved the Institute’s 2016 Public Policy Agenda during its meeting in Washington, D.C. The Agenda outlines aggressive pro-manufacturing policy strategies to guide advocacy for the upcoming year and highlights the importance of the steel industry to the U.S. economy and […]
The following article is normally reserved for our Premium members only, but we felt it would be a good one to share with all of our readers. If you are interested in upgrading to a Premium membership or would like to trial it, contact our office at (800) 432 3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The Q1 2016 […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 151,000 jobs were added in January, down from 262,000 in December. According to the Wall Street Breakfast, “consensus had called for 190,000 jobs to be added, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5 percent. Traders in interest rate […]
According to Baker Hughes data from February 5, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 571 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 48 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 31 to 467 rigs, gas rigs down 17 to 104 rigs, and […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel and the companies that use the products are becoming more optimistic about both the short term and medium term success for their companies. Earlier this week we began the process of collecting data regarding various trends involved with the flat rolled steel industry. One of the key proprietary […]
Many of you have read that hot rolled is the weakest product and that there is a significant spread between domestic hot rolled base prices and those of cold rolled and galvanized steel. Even with the energy markets being in the so-called “crapper” impacting the hot rolled order books, we are seeing stronger steel mill […]
As we mentioned in our previous article, flat rolled steel mill lead times have moved out by a week on hot rolled and as much as two weeks on cold rolled and galvanized. Galvalume lead times have remained decent but have not extended at this time but, that is to be expected for seasonal reasons. […]
Washington, D.C. – The Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) Board of Directors today announced that Tracy Porter, Senior Vice President of Commercial Metals Company (CMC) and President of CMC Americas, was elected as Chairman of SMA’s Board of Directors for 2016-2017. In July 2010, Mr. Porter was appointed Senior Vice President of CMC and President of […]
Factory orders continued to slide downwards in December, decreasing $13.5 billion or 2.9 percent to $456.5 billion according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Orders have been down four of the last five months and follow a decrease of 0.7 percent in November. Orders for transportation equipment, in particular commercial aircraft, led the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the fifth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Monday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the fourth quarter was 0.69 percent, down from 1.99 percent, in the 3rd quarter and down from 3.91 percent in Q2. Normally […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last eight quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 5,766,000 and the states reported 5,415,400. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of Federal […]
One of the important keys to understanding the strength or weakness of the flat rolled market in the United States is to follow the steel mill lead time announcements made to their customers. We can then compare them against prior weeks (and the results of our market trends report which is conducted twice per month) […]
The Institute for Supply Management reports that manufacturing activity in January remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month. The January PMI was 48.2, signaling continued weakness in the manufacturing sector despite overall growth for the economy. The reading was no surprise to economists, coming in just above expectations of 48.1 in a poll by […]
We ended the month of January on a positive note. SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward higher prices over the next 30 days. Our Sentiment Index broke through an extended downward (growing pessimism) trend and is now heading higher (more optimistic). We believe a portion of the improvement is due to flat rolled […]
The Chicago Business Barometer bounced back in January after a surprise drop in December. The index rose 12.7 points to 55.6 from the previous reading of 42.9. The welcome surge followed a weak quarter averaging 47.7, the lowest average since Q3 2009. January’s increase, however, may not be sustainable said Chief Economist of MNI Indicators […]