The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q3 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Monday. The annualized growth rate in the 3rd estimate of the 3rd quarter was 1.99 percent, down from 3.91 percent, in the 3rd estimate of Q2. GDP is measured and reported in […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last week reported results through November. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate closed at $36.31 on December 14th, down from $45.91 on October 17th, according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Brent closed at $36.51 on December 14th. WTI was down from […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of November 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in November were 82,130,000 metric tons, an increase of 8.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 21.9 percent from […]
On Friday, SMU was speaking with the CEO of a Midwest-based service center who was advising us that, in his opinion, based on the conversations he was having with his mill suppliers, we should expect more flat rolled steel price increases to come. The mills were already asking his company for more and the mills’ […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the 17th consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in November last year but on a month over month (m/m) basis has declined for nine of the first eleven months of 2015. This contrasts sharply with last year when in only one […]
The domestic steel mills began raising flat rolled steel prices late last week and into this week. We saw a mild rise in our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume indices as the domestic mills began to collect at least a portion of the announced increases. As we canvass the buyers and sellers of […]
Flat rolled steel lead times, according to those responding to this week’s market analysis questionnaire, have begun to move. The question now becomes will they continue to move and will they move out far enough to force buyers back into the market? Our respondents reported hot rolled lead times as having extended slightly from the […]
There was a significant change in the willingness of the domestic steel mills to negotiate pricing with their customers after the price announcements were made. According to the results of this week’s flat rolled market analysis conducted by Steel Market Update all products saw the percentage of those reporting the mills as willing to negotiate […]
Demand for architecture design services fell again in November. The Architecture Billings Index score was 49.3, down from 53.1 in October and 53.7 in September. The Index has been up and down throughout 2015. The new projects inquiry index was 58.6, up just barely from 58.5 in October. “Since architecture firms continue to report that […]
Manufacturing activity in the New York area declined for the fifth consecutive month in December. The rate of decline slowed somewhat as indicated by the headline general business index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, climbing six points to register -4.6. The new orders continued to fall to an index reading of -5.1. Shipments, however, […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. With almost all of the major mills now walking in step with one another (at least regarding the direction of prices from here if not the exact rate of change from where they were a couple of weeks ago), we […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 11, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 709 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 28 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs down 21 to 524 rigs, gas rigs down 7 to 185 rigs, and miscellaneous […]
Earlier this week Steel Market Update (SMU) attended the annual HARDI conference in Orlando, Florida. The well attended conference focused on a number of areas affecting the HVAC Wholesalers including presentations on the economy by Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR) and Steel Market Update regarding the status of the galvanized sheet […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the 17th consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been analyzing service center spot pricing based on reports from manufacturing and distribution respondents to our flat rolled steel market questionnaire. SMU canvassed the market last week and we believe that the results suggests an uptick in spot pricing will come soon. Manufacturing companies responding to our survey had 90 […]
The following article was written by Mario Briccetti of Briccetti & Associates, a Supply Chain consulting firm, and is also one of our instructors for Steel 101 as well as our Sales Training Workshop. Recently, in my series of articles, I have written about the coating cost of galvanized and Galvalume on flat rolled steel. […]
AISI and eight other steel associations met with government officials in Paris on December 1 to present arguments against granting China Market Economy status. The press release from AISI follows: PARIS – The American Iron and Steel Institute, the Steel Manufacturers Association, the Canadian Steel Producers Association, CANACERO (the Mexican steel association), Alacero (the Latin […]
On Friday of this past week Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Lower to Neutral. This move is being made as we are seeing more evidence of the domestic steel mills taking a stand and either raising spot prices (especially on coated steels) or refusing to go any lower. As one […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 211,000 jobs were added in November, which was in line with economist’s consensus expectations. Both September and October were revised up by a total of 38,000. The three month moving (3MMA) of gains through November was 218,000. The unemployment rate, U3, […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 4, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 737 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 7 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs down 10 to 545 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 192 rigs, and miscellaneous […]
This morning, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Lower to Neutral. This move is being made as we are seeing more evidence of the domestic steel mills taking a stand and either raising spot prices (especially on coated steels) or are refusing to go any lower. As one steel buyer put […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continued its long slide as buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are less optimistic this week regarding their company’s ability to be successful both in the existing (Current) market as well as three to six months into the future (Future). Respondents to our queries regarding Sentiment […]
The following lead times are averages generated out of the flat rolled steel market analysis we conducted beginning on Monday of this week. Actual mill lead times will vary from mill to mill and we always recommend that buyers speak to their mill representatives in order to obtain the most up to date lead times […]
Much like lead times, domestic mill spot price negotiations have been mired in the muck and not able to get any momentum going back to the spring of this year. Those responding to this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis are almost unanimous in their description of the willingness of the domestic mills to discuss […]
Global manufacturing was lackluster in November according to the Global Manufacturing PMI produced by JP Morgan and Markit Economics. The headline index registered 51.2, barely changed from 51.3 in October. Commenting on the survey, David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, said: “The global manufacturing PMI survey registered a second consecutive improvement […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the 17th consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]