Durable Goods, a measure of the health of the steel industry and economy, saw new orders fall 1 percent after three months of increases. Shipments, Unfilled Orders, and Inventories all increased 1 percent or less. Capital goods orders for non-defense and defense items decreased in May. The Commerce Department’s GDP report showed a decline of […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S was negative this week for the second week in a row after being in positive territory for the prior ten weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported May results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials and this month for the first […]
Home prices on an annual basis slowed more than expected in April according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices. Indices for both the 10 and 20-city composites showed an annual gain of 10.8 percent, down from 12.4 percent in March and lower than economist expectations of 11.4 percent. Annual gains were lower in 19 […]
Dr. Chris Kuehl, one of our Steel Summit keynote speakers and Managing Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence, provides a monthly overview of economic and global risks facing the U.S. economy and the steel industry. Armada’s June summary is as follows: 1. GDP growth expectation has dropped to 2.1% for the full year, but… The IMF, […]
ILWU/PMA contract negotiations are continuing on the West Coast. Armada Corporate Intelligence calls the negotiations “eerily silent” and says whether a strike will occur is unclear. The contract for the ILWU is set to expire June 30. According to Armada, the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) is facing increased competition from the Panama Canal expansion. Enlarging […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our mid-June flat rolled steel market analysis. We sent invitations to slightly more than 600 companies which are involved in the flat rolled steel industries as buyers, sellers or toll processors of the steel. The participants in last week’s analysis came from the manufacturing industry (45 percent), service center/wholesalers […]
Flat rolled steel mill lead times continue to be extended compared to one year ago according to the results of the SMU steel survey completed late last week. Hot rolled lead times average 4.59 weeks, which is about the same as what was reported at the beginning of the month of June. One year ago […]
Based on the results of our survey from this past week, steel mills were actively discussing steel prices and our survey respondents were reporting mills as willing to negotiate pricing. When looking at hot rolled the percentage of respondents reporting mills as willing to negotiate pricing rose from 86 percent at the beginning of June […]
We have two markets developing for flat rolled steel imports: hot rolled imports are expected to actually begin to shrink from here as the offers out of Russia and Turkey for hot rolled pricing are approximately $600 per ton or higher. Since most foreign steel buyers tend to be buyers of large tonnage and thus […]
The fact that steel prices have been moderating and, in some cases, moving lower has not dented the enthusiasm buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are showing based on the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The latest market analysis is pegging Sentiment at +57, up 3 points from our last measurement conducted […]
Design service demand picked up in May according to the American Institute of Architects. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) picked up 3 points to register 52.6 after two months of contraction. The new projects inquiry index moved up 4.1 points to 63.2. (A reading below 50 indicates contraction and a reading above 50 indicates an […]
The Canadian government approved a controversial oil pipeline project that will extend 732 miles from the oil sands in Alberta to British Columbia. The Enbridge Northern Gateway project is expected to carry 525,000 barrels of crude oil to the Pacific coast for shipment to Asia. The $6.5 billion project took on a new urgency with […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S turned negative this week after being in positive territory for the previous ten weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
Builder confidence in the new built, single-family housing market rose in June. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) registered 49, just a point below the reading of 50 that indicates good building conditions. “After several months of little fluctuation, a four-point uptick in builder sentiment is a welcome sign […]
A downturn in business conditions is coming, said participants in the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report for June. Fewer participants are expecting conditions to improve in the next three months (31 percent, down from 33 percent) and more are expecting that economic activity will decline (15 percent, up from 7 percent). PMA president […]
An increase in manufacturing activity in New York took analysts by surprise in June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general business index in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of 19.28, up from 19.01 in May. Economists were expecting the index to decline to 15.0 in June. The new […]
We have all been through them – the dreaded “Lobby Call” – that impersonal sales call in the office of a potential steel buyer in the hope of being able to spend a few moments of quality time and, instead, the interaction between salesman and buyer is relegated to the lobby of the company. The […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months, (Figure 1) which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. The currencies of the steel trading nations have been fairly stable over the last month. Table 1 shows the number of […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S was positive this week for the tenth week in a row after being in negative territory for the prior ten weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) […]
Funding for the FY 2015 appropriations bill that supports the US Army Corps of Engineers and projects in the WRRDA has been approved by the House Appropriations Committee. Funding for the Corps civil works projects is $5.493 billion. Below is a reprint of a press release by Waterways Council Inc. praising the Committee’s approval and […]
We are including this article because it puts the Fed’s post-recession activities into perspective. Our recollection is that the European central bankers scoffed at the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and TARP programs when they were initiated in 2008. The European Central bank, (ECB) has taken the single currency block into uncharted waters by sending the […]
A short note to let our Premium Level members know that our Steel Market Update survey results are online and can be accessed on the website. If you need assistance accessing any of the Premium products on our website please let me or Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com know and we will help you. We are also sharing this […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 217,000 jobs were added in May, April was revised down by 6,000 to 282,000 and March was unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose from 190,000 in March to 236,000 in April then declined by 2,000 in May, (Figure 1). All numbers […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator Adjusted to Lower from Neutral: Steel Market Update conducted our early June flat rolled steel market analysis this past week. The results of our survey, coupled with information being gathered independently of our survey have prompted SMU to revise our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. We now believe […]
The Institute for Supply Management has a sub-group of steel buyers who survey their members once per month in order to track trends affecting the steel industry. In the most recent survey, the ISM Steel Buyers group reported foreign steel mills and their domestic representatives as much more aggressively seeking steel orders from U.S. steel […]
From time to time Steel Market Update writes an article that seems to touch the collective nerve of the steel community. A number of our articles which we have published under the “Steel Buyers Basics” title fit in that category. The article we have shared with both our Steel Market Update members as well as […]
The housing bubble in China has popped according to economists. The oversupply of housing and shortage of developer financing will slow China’s GDP growth to less than 6 percent in 2014 says a recent report by Japanese investment company Nomura. Nomura says a “hard landing” may be in China’s future due to a 33 percent […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is at +54 this week and continues to be well within the optimistic range for the index. Even though the index dropped 8 points from the all-time high recorded during the middle of May, the growing optimistic trend continues as our three month moving average improved to […]