According to Baker Hughes data from June 5, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 868 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. The last time the active U.S. count was this low was back on January 24, 2003 at 862 rigs. This week’s total rig count is down 7 rigs […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our flat rolled steel analysis over the past four days. Based on the responses collected from those taking our survey we found a continuation of the optimistic trend that we have seen for a number of years now but, when compared to 2nd Quarter 2014 our index has been disappointing […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the United States is showing positive hot rolled coil price momentum for the second consecutive week, following a 39 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) […]
Global manufacturing advanced slightly in May according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Survey. The Global PMI registered 51.2 last month, compared to 51.0 in April. International trade remained weak, however, as new export business decreased for the first time in two years. Production and new orders picked up in May after hitting lows in […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The dollar is making another strong move upward. The Fed reports a daily nominal (non-inflation adjusted) index, the latest data for which is May 22nd with a value of 114.62 up 1.6 percent in 7 days. On March 13th the daily index peaked at 117.92, the highest value since May 13th 2004. Figure 1 shows […]
We ended the month of April with the SMU Price Momentum Indicator at Neutral. As the month of May began, the domestic mills announced price increases and managed to move our needle to Higher. As the month ends, our Momentum Indicator continues to point toward higher domestic flat rolled steel prices over the next 30 […]
The Chicago Business Barometer lost its gains of April, falling back into contraction in May. The Barometer dropped 6.1 points to a reading of 45.2, down from 52.3 last month. The Barometer began slipping in October 2014 from its high of 55.2. Its strongest reading in 2015 was in January at 59.4 before plunging to […]
The International Monetary Fund says the China’s currency is “no longer undervalued” after being labeled “modestly undervalued” for the past several years. According to a Tuesday statement by IMF, “While undervaluation of the renminbi was a major factor causing the large imbalances in the past, our assessment now is that the substantial real effective appreciation […]
The U.S. Senate passed the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) agreement on May 22 in a 62-37 vote, giving the president “fast track” authority to negotiate trade agreements without amendments attached by Congress. Trade agreements would still be submitted to Congress, however, for a yes or no vote. An amendment proposed by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose one point in May to 95.4 as April was revised downwards by one point. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations. The view of the present situation rose from 105.1 to 108.1 as expectations fell slightly from 87.1 to […]
After 39 consecutive weeks of being negative, the Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the United States is showing positive hot rolled coil price momentum. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a detailed flat rolled steel market analysis. We do this by inviting approximately 600 companies, which have been vetted by our publisher to make sure they are legitimate buyers, sellers or executives involved with hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume or plate products. We then send invitations […]
One of the core themes in my series of articles on steel purchasing basics is the importance of the supplier/customer relationship. Many large OEM customers rate their suppliers as a tool in order to get them to improve their performance but generally they pay little attention to how their suppliers rate them. However, Planning Perspectives […]
New orders for durable goods in April fell by $1.2 billion to $235.5 billion or 0.5 percent from March’s level. This was in line with analysts’ expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 0.2 percent. There has been a sharp deviation of the 3MMA from its trend line in the last five months […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. For the first time this month we have broken out the relationship between the CFNAI and flat rolled and long product apparent supply separately. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment continues to be well within the optimistic end of our range as the Steel Market Update (SMU) Future Sentiment Index was reported to be +61 this week. This is up one point from two weeks ago but unchanged from one month ago. The SMU Future Sentiment Index measures how buyers and sellers […]
According to the results of the Steel Market Update most recent flat rolled steel survey, domestic steel mill lead times are beginning to extend reflecting the improvement in the mills’ order books. We are, however, still far away from the lead times that we saw in the middle of May 2014. Hot rolled lead times […]
U.S. and Canadian steel buyers reported mills as less willing to negotiate flat rolled steel prices (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume prices) at the beginning of the month of May. Prior to that, the domestic steel mills had been extremely active and willing to negotiate pricing on all products. This, according to our […]
The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS), Eurometal, and the International Steel Trade Association have agreed to establish a global steel supply chain partnership. The purpose is outlined in a press release from AIIS below: The purpose of their agreement is to establish a Global Steel Supply Chain Partnership as a framework for collaboration among […]
The Association of Steel Distributors has announced its new slate of executive committee members for 2015. Brian Robbins, CEO of MidWest Materials, Inc., Perry, Ohio, will continue as president of ASD. Robbins has been an active member of the ASD Board of Directors since 2004. “I am honored to be chosen to lead an organization […]
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) says steel consumption in China will fall approximately 6 percent this year. The forecast is lower than was predicted by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) which anticipates consumption to fall 4 percent this year, followed by 2 percent in 2016. Wang Liqun, vice chairman of […]
Architecture billings took a sharp dive in April. The Architecture Billings Index dropped for the second time this year to a score of 48.8 from 51.7 in March, indicating a decrease in design services. (A score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 60.1 up from 58.2 the previous […]
Last month Steel Market Update (SMU) forecast flat shipments for the month of April. We believed at that time that the U.S. flat rolled steel service centers would ship 108,600 tons per day or total flat rolled shipments of 2,389,200. According to the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI), which released shipment and inventory data for […]
The value of the U.S. dollar has been one of the main themes affecting commodities around the world, including steel prices. The Russian ruble collapses making their steel the cheapest in the world. They, in turn, put pressure on the Chinese (who already are having issues due to their massive over-capacity of steelmaking) who are […]
Business conditions improved for New York manufacturers in May but optimism faltered for future conditions. The May 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index climbed four points to 3.1, indicating a slight improvement for the month but below forecasts by economists. The new orders index was in positive territory for the first time since […]
The piece below was published to our Premium level members earlier this week, but we would like to share it with our Executive level members as an example of what our Premium members have access to. This report goes into much more depth than our Apparent Steel Supply article published last Thursday. If you are […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. is showing positive hot rolled coil price momentum after being negative for 37 consecutive weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week […]
Metalforming companies are expecting softer business conditions during the next three months according to the May 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. More participants surveyed thought economic conditions would remain the same (60 percent up from 58 percent) or decline (16 percent compared to 9 percent in April). Incoming orders are expected to […]
After remaining at 1.7 percent since January, Atlanta area firms surveyed in May are now expecting inflation to rise at a 1.9 percent rate in the coming year. Compared to this time last year unit costs are up 1.6 percent. The Business Inflation Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is monthly survey […]