The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December showed home prices edging down by 0.1 percent for the second consecutive month in the 20-City Composite Home Price Index. Home prices year-over-year, however, rose 11.3 percent. “The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. The official statement […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty-six. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. The present situation of […]
The consumer confidence index declined by 1.3 in February driven by an increase of 4.4 in the present situation component and a decline of 5.4 in consumer expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations increased which caused the composite to rise from 76.3 to 78.3 (Figure 1). The […]
Buyers and sellers have mixed emotions and opinions regarding the current steel market. Most companies which Steel Market Update has spoken or traded emails with over the past few weeks are telling us their order books are “OK” and in line with what they saw last year at this time. Most companies believe their demand […]
Orders for durable goods decreased $2.2 billion or 1.0 percent in January to $225 billion according to the US Census Bureau’s advance report. Orders have been down three of the last four months and followed a 5.3 percent decline in December. The three month moving average fell for the second consecutive month, dropping 1.23 percent […]
Sales of new single family homes rose 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000 in January from a revised December rate of 427,000, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development. The year-over-year increase of home sales was 2.2 percent above the January […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S remained negative this week for the 5th consecutive week after being in positive territory for the prior 15 weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements […]
Chinese imports of iron ore in January were 86,830,000 metric tons (MT), an increase of 18.3 percent from the previous month and an increase of 32.5 percent from January 2012. Total iron ore imports for 2013 were adjusted to 819,410,000 MT. January imports of steel scrap were 160,000 MT, down 48.4 percent from December and […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-February flat rolled steel market survey this past week. Our surveys are by invitation only and our current invitee list consist of 586 companies. The vast majority of the individuals or companies associated with our survey have been vetted by SMU management to insure that we are working from […]
Steel prices continue to drop on most, if not all, of the indexes followed by Steel Market Update. Benchmark hot rolled coil was referenced at $645 per ton by both Steel Market Update and Platts. CRU had HRC pegged a few dollars higher at $649 per ton. SteelBenchmarker, which is part of World Steel Dynamics, […]
Domestic mill lead times hardly budged according to our most recent SMU steel market survey of the flat rolled steel market. Those participating in our survey put the average hot rolled lead time at 3.70 weeks. This is down slightly from the 3.89 weeks measured at the beginning of the month. The three month moving […]
All flat rolled steel prices, with the exception of cold rolled (and plate which we do not currently measure), were reported as being more negotiable at the domestic mills this past week. This result is based on the Steel Market Update proprietary flat rolled steel market survey which was concluded last Thursday (February 20th). Eighty-eight […]
The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada. Rigs are considered active from the time they break ground until the time they reach their target depth and may be establishing […]
Buyers who read Steel Market Update may know all about the subject of conflict minerals and the large impact it has had on purchasing departments. However, many buyers may not be familiar with the requirements of the law in this matter. In 2010, the US Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. A little know […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) began collecting responses earlier this week from the companies invited to participate in our twice monthly flat rolled steel market analysis. Even with weather related issues being felt around the country, our Buyers Sentiment Index was measured at a robust +39 this week. This result is one point lower than from […]
Based on the most recent MSCI flat rolled steel data Steel Market Update has calculated that U.S. service centers grew their “Excess” inventories from +2,000 tons at the end of December to +150,000 ton at the end of January. The “Apparent Excess” is based on a proprietary model which projects future shipments and inventory levels […]
The Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, rose in January after contracting in previous consecutive months. The ABI reflects a nine to twelve month lead time between architectural billings and construction spending. The ABI press release from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) is reprinted in entirety below. For more information on […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S remained negative this week for the 4th consecutive week after being in positive territory for the prior 15 weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements […]
General business conditions fell 8 points in the February 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey after rising 10 points in January, but remained positive at 4.5. New orders were flat for the month, declining 11 points to -0.2. The shipment index dropped 13 points to 2.1. The inventory index fell to -5.0 indicating a slight drop […]
The Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) reported metalforming companies surveyed in the February 2014 Business Conditions Report are expecting weaker business conditions during the next three months. Those who expect economic activity to improve during the period slipped from 46 percent in January to 32 percent in February. PMA members anticipate a modest decline in incoming orders […]
Winter weather has taken its toll on builder confidence in the single-family home market says the National Association of Homebuilders. Builders also expressed concern about labor shortage and scarcity of available lots. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 10 points to 46, with all three of the major components of the index falling in […]
The move by the domestic mills to reach $700+ per ton hot rolled is nothing but a blur in the rear view mirror according to the various steel indexes followed by Steel Market Update. Flat rolled steel prices fell across the board on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels this past week. The […]
For the last couple of weeks we have been discussing various kinds of ethical issues that come up in the steel business. This week we will deal with the issue of when flat rolled steel is rejectable. Buyers and sellers often find that they disagree about the quality of the steel. Generally this problem is […]
In the month since this analysis was last published, the US dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 nations that we consider to be major players in either the iron ore market or in steel product trade or both. Most notably, the Russian Rouble and the South African Rand have declined by 4.7 percent […]
The European Union was formed in 1992 with the signing of the Maastricht Treaty on European Union (TEU). In an effort to instill fiscal discipline and encourage trade and free flow of labor and capital without giving up sovereignty, member countries would participate in a monetary union while remaining fiscally independent. The caveat was countries […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S remained negative this week for the 3rd consecutive week after being in positive territory for the prior 15 weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements […]
On Monday, Steel Market Update revised our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower. The adjustment means we anticipate flat rolled steel prices will move lower over the next 30 to 60 days. At the time of the change, SMU benchmark hot rolled coil was published at $660 per ton. The last adjustment to […]
A recovery in non-residential construction is happening said research analyst Timna Tanners, in a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but the upturn for the non-residential cycle has taken longer than expected and is “less pronounced” than usual. The last strong cycle for non-residential construction was in 2005-2007, supporting a booming housing market. The […]
Based strictly on our most recent flat rolled steel survey results, Steel Market Update is seeing modest improvements being reported in demand. As a group, our survey respondents have been becoming more optimistic as those reporting demand as in decline has shrunk from 17 percent in early December to 7 percent this past week. At […]