The Global PMI composite index increased to 51.7 for the month of August, up from the 50.8 reading in July. This slight yet meaningful increase marks the eighth consecutive month of expansion in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing production increased for the tenth consecutive month, with the rate of growth at the highest level recorded since […]
Mill lead times, as reported through our proprietary steel market survey, are shrinking on three of the four flat rolled product categories followed by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times which were referenced on a weighted average basis at 4.5 weeks at the beginning of August are now at 4.0 weeks. However, the 4.0 […]
Sentiment Continues to Trend Higher (more optimistic) Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured earlier today at +40, down 3 points from the middle of August and well within the optimistic range for the index. Compared to one year ago buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are feeling much better about […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. remained in positive territory this week for the 14th consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is based upon the current hot rolled coil price weighed against the previous 12 week average spot price as recorded by Steel Market Update. MoMo […]
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 55.4 percent in July which was an increase of 4.5 percentage points above the June reading of 50.9. The 3 month moving average (3MMA) rose from 50.2 to 51.43. Any reading above 50.0 percent means manufacturing is expanding. JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI […]
Service Center Deficit Will Help Keep Mill Prices Firm Flat rolled inventories are at a 466,000 ton deficit according to Steel Market Update proprietary analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory data. The 466,000 ton deficit is the largest one we have measured since August 2009 when it was measured at 604,000 tons. […]
The key factor holding prices firm was the continuation of supply issues at the domestic steel mills. During the month we had ArcelorMittal Indiana Harbor lose their #3 blast furnace for a week. The furnace is back online as of the end of the month. We also had U.S. Steel performing maintenance on a furnace […]
Steel Market Update first attempt at a Monthly Newsletter was received very well. Our first issue went out at the beginning of August recapping the key events, prices and trends for the prior month (July). We have received a number of calls and emails wanting more information about how their company can subscribe to our […]
By the end of August SMU had adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral, SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index averaged +40 which is higher than the average from June and July and well within the optimistic range of our Index. Benchmark hot rolled prices moved essentially sideways as the numbers show below. […]
The Chicago Business Barometer edged up 0.7 points in August, registering 53 from a reading of 52.3 in July, according to MNI Indicators. A gain in New Orders and Backlogs helped push the indicator upwards. The slight increase, however, indicates stabilization after an erratic second quarter. MNI reports the Barometer is still too close to […]
ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) Expands for 3rd Consecutive Month Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 51st consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The report was issued today by […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. remained in positive territory this week for the 13th consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is based upon the current hot rolled coil price weighed against the previous 12 week average spot price as recorded by Steel Market Update. MoMo […]
We had one of our members ask about the accuracy of the Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Indicator as we move between Higher, Neutral and Lower Momentum forecasts. Here is a graph of SMU hot rolled pricing (average) and our Momentum forecasts:
The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence increased slightly in August and the 3MMA improved from 79.1 also to 81.5 the highest value since February 2008 and up by 18.4 year over year. The view of both the present situation and expectations improved on a 3MMA basis. The consumer’s view of the present situation […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods declined by 7.3 percent in July from the very strong June result and following three consecutive monthly increases. The decline in civil aircraft orders was the main reason for the month on month decline. The three month moving average in July rose by 0.5 percent month on month to […]
The percentage of service centers raising spot flat rolled steel prices dropped according to our most recent analysis of the flat rolled steel market. With flat rolled price ranges and averages stagnating at relatively high levels (compared to the lows for the year) distributors’ pricing appears to be leveling off as well. The service center […]
On Friday, August 23rd, Steel Market Update adjusted our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from “Higher” to “Neutral.” This change is meant to be an indicator of the direction we expect flat rolled steel prices to move over the next 30 days. Prior to Friday our Indicator was set at Higher for 10.5 weeks going back […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel expressed their growing optimism through our Steel Market Update (SMU) steel survey. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index registered +42 which is the highest level so far this year exceeding the previous high of +38 posted at the beginning of the month. Our index is now at the […]
Manufacturing activity is improving in the Tenth Federal District that includes the western third of Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and the northern half of New Mexico. The summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City follows: Tenth District manufacturing activity improved further in August, and producers’ expectations also edged higher after easing […]
With other periodicals calling a top or “peak” to flat rolled prices, the pressure has been put on Steel Market Update to clear up the muddied waters. From our perspective, the peak is usually identified when one of the domestic steel mills breaks ranks and starts cutting deals at numbers less than what they were […]
When reviewing our flat rolled price assessments it is important to note that our opinion is the range is more important than the average. Our index is nothing more than the average of our high and low. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator which is currently at “Lower” provides the trend we see in our price […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 22nd, 2013, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,746 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This number represents a decrease of 30 rigs from last week. Compared to last year the 1,746 count is a decrease of 222 rigs. Canadian rigs decreased by […]
This week, the SMU Fair Value HRC (hot rolled coil) Model has spot HRC pricing below Fair Value for the sixth consecutive week after briefly rising above the Fair Value price in the week of February 8th. This is due to the SMU average spot HRC index decreasing $5 per ton last week to $610 […]
The following table is of the Chinese trade data for the month of February 2013. Tonnage shown is in thousands of metric tons.
Based on the results from our steel survey conducted this past week, service center inventories dropped to 2.09 months and have been declining over the past couple of months. Steel Market Update does not weigh larger service center results any differently than smaller service centers. We defer to the MSCI data as being more complete. […]
House Subcommittee Presentations The American Iron and Steel Institute made its presence known last week on Capitol Hill. Top steel executives encouraged members of the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on Commerce, Manufacturing and Trade to remedy government policies on tax, energy, infrastructure, environment and trade to strengthen American jobs in steel and other manufacturing […]
According to the results of our most recent steel market survey, 62 percent reported “some” of the increase (less than 50% of the increase amount) has been collected. Another 5 percent reported “most” of the increase as being collect (more than 50% of the announced amount) while 33 percent reported “none” of the announced increase […]
Nucor pushes back at potential competitor Written by: Sandy Williams Arkansas lawmakers are still delving into the feasibility of offering Big River Steel a $125 million incentive package. IHS Global Analysis was hired by the State of Arkansas to provide a third-party review of the Arkansas Economic Development Commission (AEDC) cost-benefit analysis for the proposed […]
We had a mixed bag this past week as the CRU indices went higher while SMU and Platts moved lower. Stuck in the middle was Steel Orbis which didn’t do anything and SteelBenchmarker which did not report new numbers last week. The benchmark hot rolled index is in a fairly tight range from $610 (SMU/Steel […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-March steel survey this past week. We invited 682 people representing approximately 650 different companies to participate in our survey. Of those responding 49 percent were manufacturing companies, 39 percent were service centers/wholesalers and the balance were trading companies (5 percent), steel mills (4 percent), toll processors (4 percent) […]