US consumer confidence slipped again in November, declining for the second straight month amid ongoing high inflation and rising interest rates. Despite the weaker outlook, household spending has had a generally healthy start to winter holiday shopping, The Conference Board reported. The headline Consumer Confidence Index fell by two points in November to a reading […]
Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index surged 13 points last week and now stands at a five-month high. Our Future Buyers Sentiment Index also increased, up three points to one of the highest readings since May. Buyers Sentiment had peaked earlier this year, then trended downward through mid-November, always remaining in positive territory. SMU’s Buyers Sentiment […]
New orders for US-manufactured durable goods rose in October to a seasonally adjusted $277.4 billion. That figure has risen for seven out of the last eight months. Shipments picked up as well last month despite persistent inflation and global economic instability. Last month’s bookings for durable goods were up roughly 1%, or $2.8 billion more month-on-month […]
Demand for design services from US architectural firms declined in October. The drop came after the pace of growth had slowed in recent months. The October AIA Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score slipped below 50, ending a 20-month run of growth following the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020. Recall that the ABI is an advanced economic indicator for nonresidential […]
World crude steel production declined month-on-moth (MoM) in October, driven almost singlehandedly by lower Chinese output. Global production was still, however, up 1.1% versus the same period last year, according to World Steel Association (worldsteel) data. October’s output lost ground when compared to September, down 2.9%, declining for the first time in three months. World […]
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was released earlier this month, forecasting spot prices, production, and inventories for crude oil and natural gas. Crude oil prices are forecast to remain stable through the first quarter of 2023, while natural gas prices are expected to decline slightly after January. The EIA continues […]
Steel mill lead times were mixed this week compared to our previous market check, with production times slightly shrinking for three products and marginally extending for two. Hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized lead times are now at or near multi-year lows. Lead times are down by an average of 0.2 weeks compared to one […]
A very high percentage of sheet buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order, as they have since May, with more than nine out of ten reporting that this week. Negotiations on plate products are not as common, with slightly more than half of buyers reporting they are […]
Global crude steel production was estimated at 147.3 million metric tons in October as output was up by 1.6 million metric tons — 1.1% higher than the same period last year, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) reported. Last month’s estimated production was down sequentially, however, declining by 2.9%, or by 4.4 million metric tons from September’s […]
The number of active drilling rigs increased this week in both the US and Canada, according to data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes. Counts have been trending in different directions in recent weeks. Drilling activity in the US continues to improve, although it is still not back to pre-Covid levels. Canadian rig counts have been […]
Producer prices came in below expectations in October, adding to hopes that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, the US Labor Department reported. Last month’s Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of the prices received for final-demand products, advanced just 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) and 8% from a year ago, the smallest annual gain in more […]
A new international initiative aimed at setting a global standard for green steel has been launched and is being led by major players in the US steel industry. The founding members of the new Global Steel Climate Council (GSCC) include Nucor Corp., Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI), Commercial Metals Co. (CMC), Spain’s Celsa Group, the Steel […]
Monthly Key Market Indicators (KMI) have steadily improved since reaching their most recent low in July, though steel buyer sentiment recently tumbled to a 26-month low, according to the latest analysis by Steel Market Update. Positive and neutral indicators have increased, while negatives have eased. Despite some recent improvements, present headwinds are still notable. The […]
Exceeding expectations, business activity in the state of New York improved in November, moving into positive territory for the first time in four months, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The New York Fed’s Empire State headline general business conditions index — a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state — recovered by 13.6 […]
Flat Rolled = 52.5 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 47.3 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat rolled supply in October was steady month on month, according to Steel Market Update data. At the end of October, service centers had 52.5 shipping days of flat-rolled steel on hand on an adjusted […]
Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index remained roughly steady this week, as it has seen since mid-September. Our Future Buyers Sentiment Index inched down three points but remains in line with levels recorded in late September. Buyers Sentiment peaked earlier this year. It has trended downward since May but nonetheless remains in positive […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products were down in September, falling to their lowest total year-to-date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year with little consistency. September’s shipments totaled 7.58 million tons, a 7.2% decline from August’s 8.18 million tons, and the lowest total since February 2021. Apparent supply also saw a […]
Steel buyers continue to hold the upper hand in price negotiations with mills — a position they have enjoyed for nearly six months. A very high percentage of sheet buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order. Negotiations on plate products are not as common, with slightly more […]
Steel mill lead times were steady to down this week compared to our previous market check. Production times shrunk for four products tracked by SMU and slightly extended for one. Lead times retracted by an average of 0.2 weeks compared to two weeks ago and are half a week shorter than levels one month ago. […]
The US labor market added 261,000 jobs in October, down from an upwardly revised total of 315,000 payroll gains the month prior. Last month’s total, though better than expected, still marked the slowest pace of job gains since December 2020, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The decline in payroll gains […]
Data on US industrial production, capacity utilization, orders and inventories remained strong through September, indicating a healthy manufacturing sector. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production (IP) Index The IP index is a gauge of output from factories, mines and utilities. Figure […]
The US economy added 261,000 new jobs in October, outperforming consensus expectations but still decelerating to the slowest pace since December 2020, according to data from the US Department of Labor. In contrast, the unemployment rate moved higher last month to 3.7%, after estimates expected the October measure to remain sideways and match the five-decade […]
The Great Lakes Clean Hydrogen Partnership (GLCH) has proceeded with its Department of Energy (DOE) hydrogen hub application. The partnership consists of Linde, Energy Harbor, GE Aerospace, Cleveland-Cliffs, and the University of Toledo. “This industry-led hydrogen hub intends to ensure that the Midwest is a leader in decarbonization so that regional industries and supply chains […]
The number of active drilling rigs was mixed this week, with counts increasing in the US and falling in Canada, according to data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes. Activity in the US and Canada has held steady in recent weeks but is not quite back to pre-Covid levels. The number of oil and gas rigs […]
By CRU Sustainability Analyst Zsombor Garzo, from CRU’s Sustainability Services – The US political system was designed to balance power – with the President, the Congress, and the Supreme Court all being able to challenge each other. – Democrats losing control of Congress would considerably limit the Biden administration’s ability to pursue its climate change […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Despite some slightly better-than-expected data for Q3, we have further revised down our forecast for 2023. We continue to believe that stubbornly high inflation, the energy crisis, and China’s domestic problems will lead to a sharp slowdown in world growth, with outright recessions in […]
Apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US edged down slightly in SMU’s latest analysis of demand and lead time dynamics. Despite the slight decline in the latter half of October, the month’s SMU Steel Demand Index closed out roughly 2.5 points above September’s reading but remained in contracting territory for the sixth straight month […]
Steel prices declined each week in October, with all sheet products now back in line with late-2020 levels. Hot rolled prices averaged $736 per net ton ($36.80 per cwt) in October, falling from $765 in the beginning of the month to $710 as of last Tuesday. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products was […]
US manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace since May 2020, nearly falling in October to the neutral 50.0 mark — the level that typically divides expansion from contraction, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The latest update was slightly ahead of consensus forecasts of a neutral reading amid rising borrowing costs and […]
After ticking downward in the middle of October, Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices both saw marginal increases this week. Buyers Sentiment has trended downward overall since May, with buyers concerned about high inventory costs, dismal demand, and a slowing economy. SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index attempts to measure how steel buyers feel about […]