This evening I was talking with a large steel buyer about the fundamentals of the steel market and how long can prices continue to go higher. I told him that I had spoken with another large steel buyer earlier today who told me they could not understand how the fundamentals have changed in China. They […]
According to our latest flat rolled steel market survey which was conducted last week, steel mill lead times have continued to move out on every single one of the flat rolled products. The extended mill lead times are one of the primary reasons behind the increases in flat rolled steel prices, pressure on deliveries, allocations […]
The graphic used in this article visually tells the story. Flat rolled steel prices have become much less negotiable according to those taking our flat rolled steel market trends survey this past week. Lead times are extended and steel mills are using the words “allocation” and “controlled order entry” to their advantage. The net result […]
My focus over the next few days is going to be on demand and how demand will impact the flat rolled steel markets over the next couple of months. I began the process by looking at the Steel Dynamics earnings conference call transcript for hints as to how SDI sees the market progressing through 2nd […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to feel very good about their company’s prospects both in the existing market as well as looking out three to six months into the future. Steel Market Update (SMU) is of the opinion buyer optimism is connected to rising steel prices around the world which improves the […]
Steel buyers need to be aware that there has been a jump in iron ore spot pricing in China over the past 48 hours. The Steel Index (TSI) reported 62% Fe fines into the port of Tianjin, China at $64.3/dmt (dry metric ton) up 4 percent from the previous day. This same item is up […]
Both auto and light truck sales in the US dropped abruptly in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million units, down from 17.5 million in February, Figure 1. Auto sales fell by 11 percent, while light truck sales rose 3 percent. Year-to-date sales are 3 percent higher than for the first […]
Housing starts plummeted in March, according to Commerce Department data. Housing starts fell 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,089,000, well below economist projections. Housing permit authorizations also declined in March by 7.7 percent, indicating a cooling of momentum during the housing construction market’s busiest season. Single family housing starts were at […]
We should see the pace of the price increases slow down as most mills are getting the announced minimum price levels from their spot buyers ($25.00-$26.00/cwt HR, $35.00/cwt cold rolled and coated). The market needs a couple of weeks to absorb the increases and push them down to the end users and resale spot customers. […]
Every month Steel Market Update plugs in the MSCI shipment and inventory data for flat rolled steel and we run it through our model to determine if service centers are carrying too much inventory and by how much. We then forecast where we believe shipments and inventories will go over the next few months. From […]
Below is the latest release issued by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through November 2015. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for February 2016 decreased 8.5 percent to […]
This week’s newsletters may seem a little “muted” compared to the past, this is due to my right hand man – Brett Linton – being on vacation. Brett is the one responsible for keeping track of all of the data points and graphics in both the newsletter and website. He is also responsible for crunching […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 15th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
I will be doing an article in Sunday evening’s newsletter about the AISI capacity utilization numbers. The AISI produces their “estimate” of steel production and the percentage of capacity utilization based on 50 percent (or fewer) of the mills reporting production data. I have considered not publishing the data at all because, in my opinion, […]
Written by: John Packard, Publisher of Steel Market Update. Packard has 31 years of steel sales experience in the steel industry in the service center, trading company and steel mill segments of the industry. The Truth About Selling Steel is series of articles dedicated to those interested or involved with the process of selling (with […]
The Dodge Momentum Index took a 7 percent drop in March, registering 116.4 from its revised reading of 126.4 for February The Index, which measures the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, had been gaining strength over the past three months. The decline in March was due primarily to a steep 15 percent […]
You will be hearing and seeing much more about whether China should be allowed to have “market economy” status. While I don’t pretend to be an expert on the subject, I am learning that as a market economy any trade suits against China would have to be conducted differently than what is currently being done […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. February data was released on Friday April 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
We only have a few spots left for our upcoming Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop. If you or your company has interest in attending the May 17-18, 2016 workshop, which will be located in Sylvania, Ohio (just outside of Toledo) at the Wingate Hotel, please register online or contact our […]
Based on our analysis of the most recent flat rolled steel market trends survey conducted by Steel Market Update this week, we continue to find buyers and sellers of steel being very optimistic. The current market index improved to +70 which is the highest (most optimistic) number ever recorded by our Sentiment Index going back […]
Steel mill lead times on all four flat rolled products have become more extended, according to those who responded to our most recent flat rolled steel market analysis. As lead times extend, steel buyers have to place more orders in order to protect their inventories. The more orders placed, the better chance for the domestic […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel reported to Steel Market Update this past week that the domestic steel mills are less willing to negotiate steel prices. We believe this is due to strengthening order books, extending lead times, positive Sentiment and improving demand. In fact, we were learning throughout the day today that many […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 14th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
Late in the day we received notification that Evraz Flat Rolled Group has advised their customers of their intention to take transactional prices (spot) up by a minimum of $50 per ton. One of the more interesting comments I got today was from a Chicago based service center who reported being asked if he could […]
A new rule from OSHA takes aim at exposure to crystalline silica. Crystalline silica exposure is a serious health hazard affecting approximately 2 million construction workers and 300,000 general industry workers in the U.S., according to estimates by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Crystalline silica exposure occurs when construction workers drill, cut, crush, or […]
NLMK USA was the first mill to raise prices, going up $40 per ton. I am hearing comments from both sides on whether the price increases are a good or bad thing. My personal opinion is prices got a little “over-done” last year and dropped too low. A hot rolled number closer to $500 may […]
March U.S. automotive sales exceeded expectations on a year over year basis with total raw volume sales growing 3 percent due to higher volume of premium brands. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.5 million units, however, fell below 17 million for the first time since April 2015. WardsAuto expects a major spike in SAAR […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 34. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
We have been asked about the possible restart of the blast furnace at AK Steel or the furnaces at Granite City as steel prices rise and lead times remain extended. We spoke with a couple of analysts over the weekend who told us they did not see the AK Steel furnace running at any point […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 13th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]