I will be staying put for a couple of weeks and can be found in our current headquarters. Please feel free to contact me should you have any questions, comments or suggestions. This offer includes those of you who are on a trial of the Steel Market Update (SMU) newsletter(s). I am always interested in […]
Sales of new residential single-family homes declined just 0.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales were 0.2 percent below December’s revised rate but 5.3 percent higher than January 2014. The annual sales rate was […]
This week the Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. is showing hot rolled coil price momentum continuing its downward trend for the 27th week in a row (6+ months!). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil […]
I couldn’t escape the snow. Our offices in North Georgia were closed today due to 4″ of the white stuff which paralyzes those in its wake in the South. However, I traveled to Chicago yesterday only to find that the flurries being forecast earlier in the week became closer to 5″ of snow and much, […]
The vehicle sales year had a good start in January with 16.7 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Light trucks are benefiting from lower gas prices and reached 55 percent of light vehicle sales, the highest since 2014. This is good for the US assembly plants because the US light truck production is […]
Sales of existing homes fell to their lowest rate in nine months in January. Sales dropped 4.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million according to the National Association of Realtors. The sales decline was widespread, affecting all regions in the U.S. “January housing data can be volatile because of seasonal influences, […]
Home prices increased slightly in December according to data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, climbing 4.6 percent year over year in the National Home Price Index. The increase was slightly less than November’s pace of 4.7 percent. On a monthly basis, both the 10- and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.1 percent in December. […]
President Obama vetoed the Keystone XL Pipeline bill passed by the U.S. Congress. We have a full story on the veto on our website blog. We are trying to put more and more general interest stories, press releases, etc. on our website blog as opposed to publishing everything in our newsletters. This way we hope […]
Based on the most recent flat rolled steel market survey results, steel mill lead times stabilized this past week after having declined almost non-stop since August 2014. The question now is will the mill lead times begin to move out from here or remain stuck at these less than desirable levels (from a mill perspective […]
Lead times may be showing signs of reaching a bottom (too early to tell if only a dead cat bounce) but there is no question that the steel mills are willing to negotiate pricing on all flat rolled products. We have been hearing it from the flat rolled steel buyers and executives as we speak […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update conducts our flat rolled steel market analysis. We invite slightly more than 600 qualified companies to participate in our questionnaire which consist of questions about demand, inventories, foreign imports, pricing, sentiment, service center pricing and more. We have been compiling information since late 2008 (SMU began as an official […]
According to Baker Hughes data from February 20th, 2015, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,310 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count is a decrease of 48 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 37 to 1,019 rigs, gas rigs down 11 to 289 rigs, […]
Have I mentioned lately that our next Steel 101 workshop will be held in the Chicago area and will include a tour of the NLMK Indiana mini-mill? Details are on our website or you are welcome to contact our offices at: 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. We believe this will be another excellent program as we bring […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured at +53 earlier today based on the results of our most recent flat rolled steel analysis conducted this week. The +53 is 7 points higher than what we reported at the beginning of the month. Our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures how buyers and sellers […]
Housing starts in January declined by 22,000 annualized to 1,065,000 from 1,087,000 in December. This data is seasonally adjusted by Census department. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell to 1,056,000 but is still on a steadily improving trajectory, (Figure 1). This was the fifth consecutive month that the 3MMA of starts exceeded a million […]
Below is the latest data issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through December 2014. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for December 2014 increased 12.0 percent, […]
This week the Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. is showing hot rolled coil price momentum continuing its downward trend for the 26th week in a row (6 months!). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil […]
I was relieved to see the Sentiment 3MMA trend break after dropping for almost five straight months (since mid-September). I am not quite yet ready to say we have vanquished any growing pessimism within the flat rolled steel industry. But, breaking the streak was the first step. I have a number of concerns. The continuation […]
OK, I have been asked for my opinion as to what I think will happen to steel prices from this point. I have a sense that we may be entering a period of transition. A point where the price spreads between foreign and domestic are “reasonable” and the domestic steel industry can re-capture some of […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 in August and by January 23rd was down to $44.80. By February 9th, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the price of WTI had recovered to $52.99. Brent […]
On Monday we will begin our mid-February flat rolled steel market analysis. The market has seen prices dropping over the past few weeks at a rate not seen for a number of years. Our survey will help us not only understand where price offers/orders are today but when we think the bottom will be reached. […]
The Dodge Momentum Index fell 4.8 percent in January as a result of decreased planning activity in both commercial and institutional construction sectors. The January decline to 121.1 follows a jump of 11.7 percent in final three months of 2014, continuing a hesitant upward trend. On a year over year basis, the Index rose 5.8 […]
This week the Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. is showing hot rolled coil price momentum continuing its downward trend for the 25th week in a row. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price […]
Traders at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference told me hot rolled offers at in the $460 to $480 per ton range with little to no activity. It is not clear yet if the import offers will move lower from the $460 to $480 level. One trader told me that they were not taking any […]
General Motors, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler (FCA US) all reported strong fourth quarter earnings driven by sales of trucks, SUVs and crossovers. GM reported net income of $1.1 billion in Q4, with 669,000 vehicles sold. GM executive vice president and CFO Chuck Stevens said in GMs conference call that with “recent fuel prices and strength in […]
I have been speaking with a number of service centers involved in the secondary side of the steel industry. Although early in my investigation, I am learning that no one really knows how the huge drop in scrap prices will ultimately affect the secondary markets. Usually there is a relationship between secondary steel prices and […]
In Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we advised that our SMU Pricing Momentum Indicator continues to point to lower steel pricing over the next 30 days. One of our service center readers pointed out two reasons why he believes pricing will move lower when he wrote us, “Prices here are falling due to […]
I remember one time I became so irate with a customer that I literally was standing on my desk and screaming at him on the phone. It may have made me feel better for a couple of minutes but it didn’t do much to enhance the customer’s experience with the company I represented. Nor did […]
According to Baker Hughes data from February 6th, 2015, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,456 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count is a decrease of 87 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 83 to 1,140 rigs, gas rigs down 5 to 314 rigs, […]