Texas manufacturing has been in a slump for several months but is beginning to show signs of improvement. Manufacturing activity in Texas declined slightly in July according to The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Most of the indexes in the survey were in negative numbers but slowly creeping […]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its manufacturing survey for the Fifth District on Tuesday showing moderate expansion in July. Shipments, new orders, and order backlogs all increased during the month. The composite index rose to 13 from 7 in June and 3 in May. The employment indices decreased to 1 while the wages […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last six quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 4,320,000 and the states reported 4,093,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in at Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
The Architecture Billings Index jumped to 55.7 in June from a reading of 51.9 in May for the highest score since 2007. All design categories showed improvement except for multi-family construction which has been in a slowing trend so far in 2015. The new projects inquiry index rose to 63.4, from 61.5 the previous month. […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of June 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in June were 74,960,000 metric tons, an increase of 5.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 0.5 percent […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q2 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was unchanged in the Q2 at 7.0 percent which was faster than the 6.8 percent median forecast of 39 […]
Contract negotiations are currently underway between the United Steel Workers and steel companies US Steel and ArcelorMittal. The companies each met with USW bargaining committee members in Pittsburgh to begin working out details of new three-year contracts to replace the current ones expiring Sept. 1. USW Committee members are expecting the first proposal from ArcelorMittal […]
Steel Market Update recently received data from Bradford Research covering Chinese production, trade, and consumption of steel and steel related products for the first six months 2015. It probably won’t come as any surprise that steel consumption is falling in China while exports, especially for finished steel products, are up by over 30 percent compared […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: No Grexit worries are going to […]
The July 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed slightly improved conditions for New York state manufacturers. The index rose six points to 3.9 following a negative reading in June. The index has been hovering around the zero point for the last four months indicating that business activity has been subdued. Graphic representation of the period […]
The Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed slower growth in business activity in July. The headline index dropped to 5.7 from 15.2 in June but remained positive for the month. The index has been in single digits so far this year with the exception of June. New orders slipped eight points in July while the […]
A quick note that we will be updating the imports by port and country data for May later this afternoon. You can view the data sheets on our website here. Feel free to contact our office if you need any assistance at (800) 432 3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. This month the […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Steel Market Update queried U.S. domestic steel mills to hear what they have to say on the recently passed trade legislation. One of the executives who responded was Jim Baske, chief executive officer, ArcelorMittal North American Flat Rolled who said, “The steel industry in the United States faces significant competitive challenges from dumped and subsidized […]
Building planning declined in June according to the Dodge Momentum Index published by Dodge Data & Analytics. The Index, which is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, dropped 1.3 percent to 118.3 from 119.9 in May. Overall, the Index is just 2.2 percent higher than June 2014 and […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
Steel buyers in the ISM Steel Buyers Survey continue to be cautiously optimistic that general economic activity will improve over the next six months. In the June survey, 38.5 percent of buyers expect economic conditions to improve, up from 30.8 percent in the May survey. However, 61.5 percent expect unchanged conditions during the period, up […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the index gained 1.3 points in May and a further 0.7 points in June to end at 53.5 with a three month moving […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 223,000 jobs were added in June which was in line with expectations. April and May were revised down by a total of 60,000. Monthly job gains have averaged 221,000 over the past three months. In the 12 months prior to June, employment growth […]
Global manufacturing in June slowed close to a two-year low according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The Index posted at 51.0 from 51.3 in May, but manufacturing output remained in expansion (above the neutral 50 point) for the 31st consecutive month. Manufacturing growth, on average, continued to grow in North America and Europe […]
June ended the same way it started with our SMU Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward higher flat rolled steel prices. This is now the second month in a row where our Momentum Indicator has been pointing up. Our Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index averaged +61.5 for the month of June. However, the last report we […]
We have seen many of the indices either produced by or followed by Steel Market Update (SMU) were falling during the first few months of 2015 before stabilizing and beginning to rebound by the end of the first six months 2015. Not everything is reacting in unison so we thought we would point out a […]
The June Chicago Business Barometer gained back half of May’s losses but remained in contraction for the second consecutive month and the fourth so far this year. The Barometer rose 3.2 points to 49.4 from 46.2 in May. Overall, the barometer declined 1.2 points in second quarter, registering 49.3 from 50.5 in Q1, its lowest […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board jumped by 6.8 points in June, as May was revised down slightly. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations and this month’s result is a perfect example of why not to get too carried away by one month’s result in […]
The Supreme Court blocked new EPA regulation on pollutants from coal-fired power plants in a 5-4 vote on Monday. The ruling will prevent the EPA from imposing new rules designed to reduce mercury and other toxic pollutants from power plants without first undertaking a cost-benefit analysis. Industries and 20 states complained that the EPA disregarded […]
The TAA legislation passed by the Senate and House last week contained a measure short-titled “American Trade Enforcement Effectiveness Act.” The act provides for improvements to antidumping and countervailing duty laws, including how material injury is defined. The Act is comprised of amendments are made to the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 USC 1677). SMU […]
Today (June 25, 2015), the House passed HR 1295 which includes extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and other trade preference programs, as well as the renewal of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and improved AD/CVD laws that will benefit the steel industry. The measure passed by a vote of 286-138. Today’s vote follows […]