Consumer confidence declined markedly in November continuing this year’s highly erratic trend and, in fact, the view of the present situation and expectations exhibited the sharpest reversal since November 2011 when they went the other way. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets The S+P 500 remains strong despite […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
Manufacturing slowed in November in the Fifth District, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index for manufacturing activity registered -3, down from -1 in October. Shipments were also negative ending at -2. New orders fell six points to -6. The summary from the Fifth District Survey follows: “Fifth District manufacturing activity […]
The London Metal Exchange announced November 23 the launch of new ferrous and premium contracts. LME Aluminum Premiums, LME Steel Scrap and LME Steel Rebar are the first new contracts to be offered by the LME in more than five years. The new contracts are designed to complement the existing ferrous contract for LME Steel […]
Demand for architecture design services has been increasing for most of 2015 in nearly all construction project types, according to the American Institute of Architects. AIA’s Architecture Billings Index dropped slightly in October to a score of 53.1 from 53.7 in September. A score above 50 indicates an increase in billings and design services. The […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey continued to show declining business activity for New York manufacturers. The headline index reading inched up to -10.7 from -11.4 last month. November marks the fourth consecutive month of negative readings for the survey. Economists were expecting the index to jump to -6.36, according to Bloomberg. Indexes for new orders […]
Trade protection is a driving concern for the U.S. steel industry that has seen prices and domestic demand plummet as low priced steel imports flooded American shores. Steel mills, unions and legislators have lobbied for stronger enforcement of trade policies and the additional safeguards from dumped and subsidized imports and currency manipulation. Currently the focus […]
The following article is another example of Premium level content that is not normally seen by our Executive level members. If you would like to learn more about upgrading your membership from Executive to Premium please contact our office: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone: 800-432-3475. This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
(From AISI, Nov. 10, 2015) A report released today concludes that treating China as a market economy in antidumping investigations would “severely damage the NAFTA steel industries and harm NAFTA economies.” The study, comprised of three economic analyses, was conducted by leading economists from Capital Trade Incorporated in Washington, DC; the Centre for Spatial Economics […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 271,000 jobs were added in October, which was well above economist’s consensus expectations. August’s gains were revised up by 17,000, but September’s were revised down by 5,000. This followed September’s result of 137,000 which was well below consensus expectations of about […]
The Q4 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on November 2nd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 69 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and […]
I am asked quite often what the differences are between Premium and your Executive level memberships. Over the next couple of weeks I am going to try point out what Premium receives above and beyond the Executive newsletter and website access. There are a number of special reports produced by Steel Market Update which Premium […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of November […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets We are actually in a pretty […]
The House of Representatives passed a six-year transportation bill that will provide up to $325 billion for transportation projects including $261 billion for roads and bridges. The funding is expected to last three years although a last minute amendment was adopted that could provide an additional $40 billion during the life of the bill. “I […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute, the Steel Manufacturers Association, the Canadian Steel Producers Association, CANACERO (the Mexican steel association), Alacero (the Latin American steel association), EUROFER (the European steel association,) Instituto AcoBrasil (the Brazil Steel Institute), the Specialty Steel Industry of North American and the Committee on Pipe and Tube Imports today released a […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had positive growth on a month over month basis in June and July but […]
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI indicated manufacturing is expanding at a slightly faster rate as the world enters fourth quarter. The October Global PMI registered at 51.4, up from 50.7. The UK led the rise in manufacturing with solid improvement in output and new orders. The U.S. took second place in manufacturing growth alongside […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the third quarter was 1.49 percent, down from 3.91 percent, in the third estimate of Q2. GDP is measured and reported in […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
The Chicago Business Barometer gained 7.5 points to register 56.2 in October. The bounceback was due mainly from strong gains in production and new orders. All three indicators were at their highest reading since January of this year. On a three month moving average the Barometer was 53.1, up 15.4 percent from September. Production leapt […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
Consumer confidence continued this year’s highly erratic trend in the October data. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month this year than last. In all of 2014 the monthly change ranged from +5.1 to -4.4, this year the range has been +10.7 to […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1.2 percent in September, following a decrease of 3.0 percent in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Manufactured goods have been pressured by a decrease in exports due to weak global economic conditions and a strong U.S. dollar that makes pricing for U.S. products less competitive. Transportation […]
The Texas manufacturing Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed manufacturing increasing in October after nine months of flat or declining output. The production index rose to 4.8 for the first growth in output for the region in 2015. New orders continued a third month of negative reading, falling 3 points […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last six quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 4,849,000 and the states reported 4,475,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
The Precision Metalforming Association expects continuing weaker business conditions for the next three months. The PMA’s October Business Conditions Report showed a “minor, but continuing,” downturn in economic activity along with anticipation that orders will soften in the coming months. Current daily shipping levels dipped in October with 33 percent of survey participants reporting a […]