The headline index for the Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index fell 21 points in October. The general business index registered 6.2 after a robust September at 27.54. The decline indicates that business activity is still considered growing but a slower pace. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the share of responses indicating […]
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) made the following statement this week: “Despite setbacks, an uneven global recovery continues. Largely due to weaker-than-expected global activity in the first half of 2014, the growth forecast for the world economy has been revised downward to 3.3 percent for this year, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of initial reports for nonresidential building projects in planning, fell 0.7 percent from August to a reading of 115.8 for September. The index rose 13 percent in the first half of this year but has been down in the past three months by a combined percentage of 7 […]
The following article was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright for our Premium level members. However, we felt that the current strengthening trend of the U.S. dollar is important for all of our readers to understand as it is impacting both commodity and steel prices and will continue to do so in the future. […]
Contributing writer, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC, provides a glimpse at the financial, copper, steel (hot rolled coil), iron ore and scrap markets for our readers. Mr. Marshall is well known within the futures community and is the instructor for our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops. Financial Markets: Rethinking Island Mentality The […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 248,000 jobs were added in September. August , which had been disappointing, was revised up by 38,000 and July was revised up by 31,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) declined to 224,000 in September and has declined for three straight months but […]
The collapse of spot iron ore prices resulted in a surge in iron ore swaps, options and futures in September. Options hit the highest ever volume at 15.6 million tonnes followed by futures at 25 million tonnes according to TSI data. In total, over 62 million tonnes of futures and derivatives were cleared by exchanges […]
The World Steel Association has downgraded it Short Range Outlook for apparent steel usage for 2014 and 2015 to 2 percent each year-over-year from it’s previous April forecast of 3.1 percent in 2014 and 3.3 percent in 2015. The slowing markets in China, South American and CIS were cited as reasons for the changed in […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) was reading the most recent Armada Corporate Intelligence report where they referred to the railroad carload statistics as the “secret weapon” known to the big names in the investing business. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) weekly reports are followed by Armada because, “…it will give you weeks of warning about […]
Steel buyers in the September ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to be flat over the next six months. Respondents were split at 45.5 percent on whether the the trend for sales and production would go up or remain static. Tons on hand would cover shipping levels for 0-1 month for 36.4 […]
The hot rolled futures market has been active this week. After weeks of very little movement, selling has pushed futures prices into a more dramatic backwardation. Nearby months such as November and December have fallen $7 to $632. Further down the curve, HRC prices have fallen slightly more with all months in 2015 falling $8 […]
Manufacturing activity grew for the 16th consecutive month but slowed to a PMI reading of 56.6 in September’s Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. While economists were expecting a smaller drop of 58.2 to 58.5 from last month’s reading of 59.0, U.S. manufacturing is still holding strong. “The September PMI registered 56.6 percent, a decrease of […]
Global manufacturing growth slowed in September. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI eased to a 4-month of 52.2 maintaining the general rate of expansion seen throughout 2014. Meaningful growth was mostly limited to the U.S., however, along with improvements in Czech Republic, Ireland, Taiwan and Canada. Growth was stagnant in most of the rest of […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined sharply in September, particularly in the expectations component. The composite fell from 93.4 to 86.0, the view of the present situation fell from 93.9 to 89.4 as expectations declined from 93.1 to 83.7. In closer examination, it looks as though the August view of […]
The Canadian economy was flat in July following six months of gains according to data released by Statistics Canada on Sept. 30, 2014. GDP growth was unchanged, failing to meet economist forecasts of 0.2 to 0.3 percent growth. Manufacturing output grew by 1 percent. Durable goods rose 1.6 percent with notable increases in transportation equipment, […]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.8 points to 60.5 in September. The headline index in the report by MNI Indicators was lower than economist predictions of 62.0 report but well above the neutral 50 reading. The average Barometer reading for third quarter was 59.1, indicating a healthy growth for the economy. Production and new orders […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts last Friday. The annualized growth rate was revised up from 3.95 percent in the first estimate to 4.17 percent in the second estimate to 4.59 percent in this the third estimate. GDP is […]
Armada Executive Intelligence released its monthly trends report that focuses on economic issues that are likely to have short and long term impact on business. The following is a summary of the important issues to watch in the coming months and year. Trend 1: U.S. Dollar Strengthening Banks around the world are taking their cue […]
Durable goods orders in August fell back to the long term trend line after the huge surge in July, continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession (Figure 1). The three month moving average (3MMA) increased for the sixth straight month (Figure 2). The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA grew […]
Andre Marshall, an active futures trader and owner of Crunch Risk, LLC, provided the following recap of hot rolled futures, iron ore and scrap as well as some words regarding the financial markets and copper trading. Here is what he shared with SMU this evening: Financial Markets: Well today saw a pretty big drop in […]
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) released their Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month of August on Wednesday this week, reporting that the latest index declined slightly after reaching last month’s seven-year high. The ABI score for August was 53.0, down 2.8 points from July’s score of 55.8. Note that the index is […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of August 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in August were 74,880,000 metric tons, a decrease of 9.3 percent from the previous month but an increase of 8.5 percent […]
The September Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report reveals that metalforming companies are less optimistic about the business conditions for the next three months. The number of participants expecting economic activity to decline doubled to 14 percent from 7 percent last month, 51 percent expect no change (down from 53 percent) and 35 percent […]
The hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market has been very flat in terms of pricing over the past few weeks with the Q4 trading around $645, Q1 $650 and calendar 2015 around $645. All prices are very flat down the curve, indicating a slight decrease in pricing from current spot levels. Overall, good volumes have […]
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey registered a drop of 5.5 points to 22.5 in September after recording its highest reading since March 2011 at 28.0 in August. Orders and shipments increased by 1 and 5 points, respectively, while indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times were positive for the month. Input prices were […]
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July. This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month […]
Manufacturing activity in New York in September was at its highest level since late 2009. The general business conditions index rose 13 points to 27.5 according to the survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The new orders index rose three points to 16.9 while the shipments index advanced two points to 27.1—both […]
At least once per month, Steel Market Update produces an update on the various currencies associated with steel trading nations. The following information is as of late last week and was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright. Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily […]
The following report was prepared by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC which is a company specializing in hot rolled, ferrous scrap and other “futures” contracts or financial derivatives. Today he discusses the broader financial markets, hot rolled steel futures (HRC), iron ore and ferrous scrap futures (BUS) trading on the CME. Andre Marshall […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 82,520,000 metric tons, an increase of 10.7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 12.8 percent […]