A first glance suggests that the June housing starts report was depressing, total starts at 893,000 were down from 985,000 in May and 1,063,000 in April. However the three month moving average (3MMA) in June was 980,000 which was exactly the same as April. Not progress but not a calamity either. Even on a 3MMA […]
Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 103.92 for June, with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 103.6. This was the ninth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has expanded for 20 straight […]
The hot rolled steel futures market has perked up in the past few weeks with recent bullish events in the physical market supporting prices. After months of trading in a strong backwardation, prices on the nearby months July, August and September have pushed higher trading near parity with spot prices, between $650-665 per ton. Further […]
The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed improved business conditions for the third consecutive month with a reading of 25.6, up 6 points and at its highest level in over four years. In the survey of New York manufacturers, new orders held steady at 18.8 while the shipments index picked up nine points to register […]
The following article on the Asian scrap markets was written by Damon Sun one of Steel Market Update contributing writers and an active participant in the Asian ferrous scrap markets: From last week onwards, the Far East Asian scrap markets have been weakening on the containerized sales, but the bulk scrap sales have insisted and […]
The supply of all steel products in the 3 months March through May 2014 was up by 10.0 percent from the same period last year. Flat rolled was up by 11.6 percent and sheet products by 11.5 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data. The […]
The Dodge Momentum Index rose for the third consecutive month, gaining 3.3 percent in June to register 128.7, according to McGraw Hill Construction. The Index is a monthly measure of initial planning for nonresidential building projects. The report leads construction spending by a full year and can be used an indicator for future construction. Any […]
Steel buyers in the June Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Steel Buyers Survey held fast to the belief that the general trend of economic activity will remain the same for the next six months, unchanged from 66.7 percent. Incoming orders are expected to remain the same for 50 percent of steel buyers surveyed and increase […]
AISI Press Release – WASHINGTON, D.C. – The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and more than 40 other associations are urging the State Department to move ahead toward completion of the Keystone XL pipeline. In a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry, in whose jurisdiction the pipeline evaluation process lies, the groups state […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 288,000 jobs were added in June, May was revised up by 7,000 to 224,000 and April up by 22,000 to 304,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose to 272,000 after four consecutive months of growth beginning in February at 150,000, (Figure 1). […]
Building permit values jumped 13.8 percent in Canada in May, totaling $6.9 billion and exceeding expectations for the month. The increase was due to higher construction intentions for commercial buildings in Ontario and Manitoba as well as multi-family dwellings in British Columbia, said Statistics Canada. Residential permit values rose 9.5 percent to $4.1 billion. Building […]
Chinese steel trade data for May 2014 was released late last week, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in May were 77,382,000 metric tons, a decrease of 7.2 percent from the previous month but an increase of 12.9 percent from […]
Steel price inputs were mixed during the month of June. Shredded and heavy melt scrap prices declined $8 and $4 per ton respectively while busheling scrap prices increased by $3 per ton. Iron Ore prices increased for 62% Fe grades but decreased for 58% Fe. Zinc and Aluminum prices showed a slight increase of $0.0437 […]
Hot rolled prices eroded during the month of June with the month ending at $660 per ton ($33.00/cwt) and our June monthly average $666 per ton. At the end of May our average was $680 per ton so we are down $14 per ton based on the monthly averages. The CRU hot rolled coil futures […]
We are including this article because it puts the Fed’s post-recession activities into perspective. Our recollection is that the European central bankers scoffed at the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and TARP programs when they were initiated in 2008. The European Central bank, (ECB) has taken the single currency block into uncharted waters by sending the […]
The HRC futures market has been stuck in a rut over the past couple of weeks in terms of both volumes and price volatility. The market remains backwardated with the spot price now at 670 and the July futures value around 650, Q3 630 and Q4 630. While prices in the physical market have softened […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. The June PMI registered 55.3 percent, down slightly from 55.4 percent in May. Any number > 50 indicates expansion and this was the thirteenth straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA) advanced for the third consecutive […]
Hot rolled prices eroded during the month of June with the month ending at $660 per ton ($33.00/cwt) and our June monthly average $666 per ton. At the end of May our average was $680 per ton so we are down $14 per ton based on the monthly averages. The CRU hot rolled coil futures […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. The June PMI registered 55.3 percent, down slightly from 55.4 percent in May. Any number > 50 indicates expansion and this was the thirteenth straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA) advanced for the third consecutive […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose moderately to 52.7 in June from 52.1 in May, an expansion of the manufacturing sector for the 19th month. Production increased at the fastest rate since February due to a flow of new orders. International trade volumes were subdued in June reported JP Morgan and Markit. The June […]
US auto sales slowed a bit in June but still made gains for most automakers. Sales exceeded analyst expectations totaling 1.4 million in June. WardsAuto’s currently estimates the seasonally adjusted annual rate for light vehicles in 2014 at 16.98 million, in line with industry forecasts of 17 million. Chrysler had the best showing of the […]
The Chicago Business Barometer slipped 2.9 points to 62.6 in June, but the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and MNI Indicators says the barometer continues to be high and “consistent with a bounceback in Q2 GDP.” The barometer gained momentum in Q2 to an average reading of 63.7, staying above 60 for three months in […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimate of US GDP growth was a shocker at negative 2.9 percent, this came after the first estimate which was positive 0.1 percent and the second estimate at negative 1.0 percent. This raises the question of whether early estimates are worth considering. The first estimate for the second quarter […]
“USW members and non-union workers alike know firsthand the pain inflicted by foreign predatory, protectionist and unfair trade practices,” said Leo W. Gerard, International President, United Steelworkers (USW) before the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance on June 25. Gerard told Senate members that the only way the USW wins at its efforts to counter unfair […]
Durable Goods, a measure of the health of the steel industry and economy, saw new orders fall 1 percent after three months of increases. Shipments, Unfilled Orders, and Inventories all increased 1 percent or less. Capital goods orders for non-defense and defense items decreased in May. The Commerce Department’s GDP report showed a decline of […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported May results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials and this month for the first […]
Home prices on an annual basis slowed more than expected in April according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices. Indices for both the 10 and 20-city composites showed an annual gain of 10.8 percent, down from 12.4 percent in March and lower than economist expectations of 11.4 percent. Annual gains were lower in 19 […]
Dr. Chris Kuehl, one of our Steel Summit keynote speakers and Managing Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence, provides a monthly overview of economic and global risks facing the U.S. economy and the steel industry. Armada’s June summary is as follows: 1. GDP growth expectation has dropped to 2.1% for the full year, but… The IMF, […]