Recessions are considered by economists to be a necessary evil to clear out distortions that have arisen in the economy. At Steel Market Update, we track several leading indicators of economic activity. Viewed individually, they offer limited insight on economic expansion or contraction. Viewed collectively in this new report from SMU, they give our Premium […]
Inaction by the Trump administration leaves the market to wonder if the Section 232 investigation will lead to new tariffs or quotas this year on steel imports. Steel buyers contacted by Steel Market Update are concerned that additional restrictions on foreign imports may create a shortage and make steel prices even more volatile. Following are […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was only slightly lower in January than December’s near seven-year record. Inching down to 54.4 from 54.5, manufacturing is off to a good start for 2018. The Global PMI is produced monthly by J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit in association with the Institute for Supply Management and the International Federation […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Industry data through the end January, including drivers of steel prices, supply and demand, are all pointing up as the year got off to a strong start. As the month ended, the Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum indicator was pointing to higher flat rolled steel prices over the next 30 to 60 days as […]
Manufacturing activity slipped slightly in January, according to the latest Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM Index edged downward to 59.1 percent from 59.3 percent in December, but remained higher than its average reading of 57.4 for 2017. Indexes for new orders fell 2 points to 65.4 percent and production […]
The Chicago Business Barometer retreated 2.1 points in January to 65.7, but remained an encouraging start for 2018. The barometer was 28.3 percent higher than the January 2016 reading and above the average of 63.7 in the second half of 2017. New orders and output slowed in January. Orders were at a five-month low accompanied […]
For those who were hoping President Trump’s State of the Union address last night might provide some clarity on U.S. trade policy, perhaps even a brief mention of NAFTA or Section 232, his remarks were a disappointment. The only time he mentioned “steel” was in describing “the steel in America’s spine” in overcoming the challenges […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in December, but recovered in January and remains at an extremely high level, according to The Conference Board’s January Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in January was 125.4, up from 123.1 in December. Last July, the composite reached 120 for the first time since November 2000 and […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in December, recovered partially in January and surged in February to the highest level since November 2000, according to The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in February was 130.8, up from 124.3 in January (1985=100). The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 125.3 in […]
Economic indicators are strong overall and portend well for the first half of 2018. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing, construction, steel activity and the overall market in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will […]
The latest HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast expects accelerated residential construction in the U.S. through the first half of the 2018. Construction will slow in the second half as the U.S. enters a “brief and mild macroeconomic recession in 2019.” Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the […]
As plugged into Washington as they may be, the leadership of the Steel Manufacturers Association is in the dark on Section 232, just like everyone else. Queried by reporters last week during SMA’s board meeting in Florida, the trade group’s officers could offer no inside information on what to expect from President Trump as he […]
Durable goods orders increased at their fastest pace in six months, gaining 2.9 percent after an upwardly revised 1.7 percent advance in November. On a year-over-year basis, orders increased 5.8 percent from 2016, the most in six years. Durable goods are items that are meant to last at least three years. Civilian aircraft orders jumped […]
The growth of U.S. Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter of 2017 declined from the strong performance of the second and third quarters, but the overall trend is good. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter on Friday. Growth was reported to be 2.57 percent […]
Which region of the United States is tops in job creation? The Pacific now has the greatest number of employed people of all 10 regions and in 2017 created the most jobs, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of government employment data. Fourth-quarter employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor […]
In Q4 2017, the Pacific pulled ahead of the East North Central region in total employment and held onto that lead in Q1 2018, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of government employment data. First-quarter employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. Economy.com summarized as follows: […]
Global steel production grew significantly in 2017, though the pace of growth slowed somewhat in December due to pollution control cutbacks in China, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. “Global growth has been accelerating since mid-2016, and all signs point to a further strengthening both this year and […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel A couple of interesting observations this week in the ferrous futures. Basically, steel is up, and scrap is softer. HR nearby […]
Prepare for growth in the U.S. economy this year, says ITR Economics. The latest HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast predicts accelerated industrial production through the first half of the year and possible slowing in the second half. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the Heating, Air-conditioning & […]
Steel is a core business for the port in Tampa, Fla., which handled steel and scrap imports and exports totaling about 900,000 tons last year. Hundreds of industry executives will also pass through the port as attendees of the 29th annual Tampa Steel Conference to be hosted by Port Tampa Bay and Ports America on […]
AK Steel has confirmed that a ladle used in the steelmaking process at the company’s Middletown Works malfunctioned around 8 a.m. Saturday morning, releasing liquid steel into the facility. The spill caused a fire that drew crews from four area fire departments who worked for over two hours to contain the blaze. A spokesperson for […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Jean Carroll Kemp, a Washington trade and public policy veteran, has joined the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) as Senior Vice President of Government Affairs and Trade Policy. “Jean’s experience and character make her uniquely qualified for this role at the SMA. She is a trade policy expert adept at creating solutions to the sensitive and […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index showed continued growth in New York State, but at a slower pace in January. The general business index registered 17.7, down from 19.6 in December. New orders declined 7.1 points to 11.9, while shipments eased by 9.1 points to 14.4. The unfilled orders index registered 4.3 indicating a small increase. […]
U.S. demand for steel sheet products continued to expand through November, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent supply is a proxy for market demand. Demand momentum for sheet products in total was negative in the three months through […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
While the December jobs report was a bit disappointing, it still represents the 85th consecutive month of job growth and left the unemployment rate unchanged. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for December was released on Friday. The total number of nonfarm jobs created was 148,000. October was revised down by 33,000 and […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of November 2017, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in November totaled 94,540,000 metric tons, an increase of 18.9 percent from the previous month, and an increase of 2.8 percent from […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Since the end of last week, which was very quiet due to year end, the Futures markets have been relatively muted […]