Global steel production grew by 2.7 percent in the three months through January, though the pace of growth continued to be slowed by pollution control restrictions in China. Excluding China, the pace of growth for world steel production was 4.8 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. On […]
The decline in value of the U.S. dollar on the international exchange markets has slowed in the last 30 days, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of currencies. Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The analysis of currency trends is a highly technical undertaking. Therefore, in this […]
Durable goods orders fell 3.7 percent in January to $239.7 billion, according to Commerce Department data. January’s decline follows two months of increases and is the biggest decline since July 2017. Analysts expected a decline of 2.0 percent or less. Durable goods are manufactured items that are expected to last three years or more. The […]
New rules requiring electronic logging devices (ELDs) to monitor drivers’ hours behind the wheel are having the predicted effect on the market, disrupting trucking operations, igniting fierce competition for trucking capacity and sharply raising freight rates. Under the complicated hours of service regulations that took effect Dec. 18, drivers can work no more than a […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
U.S. gross domestic product grew in every region of the country in last year’s second and third quarters, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data was updated through Q3 2017. […]
A majority of metalforming companies surveyed in the February Precision Metalforming Association Business Conditions Report expect improvement in economic activity during the next three months. The latest report showed 97 percent anticipate better conditions going forward. “The Trump administration has shown strong leadership on important policy initiatives like tax reform and infrastructure, which give confidence […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel The HR futures prices continue to grind higher in the near dates but have been lagging in the latter half of […]
Manufacturing activity continued to expand in New York State, but at a slower pace in February. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index dipped five points to 13.1. A slight increase in new orders was offset by a similar decrease in shipments. Unfilled orders increased slightly and delivery times lengthened. Input prices jumped in […]
The employment picture looks attractive so far for 2018, particularly for construction and manufacturing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that the economy created 200,000 new nonfarm jobs in January. The BLS data included revisions for previous years, which we have incorporated into this update. There were increases in the total number […]
Steel Market Update was contacted this week by an analyst who questioned the accuracy of the American Iron and Steel Institute data published by SMU. He wondered how AISI calculates its weekly mill capacity utilization rates and whether their calculations account for idled furnace capacity. A close look at the AISI data shows the domestic […]
Mill Steel Co., the Grand Rapids, Mich.-based flat rolled steel distributor, is among a growing list of companies that are sharing a portion of the coming tax windfall with their employees. Mill Steel has awarded a $1,000 bonus to all 400 of its full-time associates as a result of the tax cut passed by Congress […]
The Fourth of July has always been my favorite holiday, so maybe that’s why experiencing a space launch up close evoked so many of the same strong emotions. I was at Cape Canaveral in Florida on Tuesday, sitting in the “Feel the Heat” section for the historic test flight of the Falcon Heavy rocket, the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Increased HR futures buying this week reflects the slightly more bullish narrative in the domestic HR price expectations. Concern that lead times […]
The steel industry stands to be a major beneficiary of the $1.5 trillion in infrastructure improvements proposed by President Trump in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, but don’t count on the extra government business anytime soon. Not unlike his plan to build a border wall paid for by Mexico rather than the […]
Recessions are considered by economists to be a necessary evil to clear out distortions that have arisen in the economy. At Steel Market Update, we track several leading indicators of economic activity. Viewed individually, they offer limited insight on economic expansion or contraction. Viewed collectively in this new report from SMU, they give our Premium […]
Inaction by the Trump administration leaves the market to wonder if the Section 232 investigation will lead to new tariffs or quotas this year on steel imports. Steel buyers contacted by Steel Market Update are concerned that additional restrictions on foreign imports may create a shortage and make steel prices even more volatile. Following are […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was only slightly lower in January than December’s near seven-year record. Inching down to 54.4 from 54.5, manufacturing is off to a good start for 2018. The Global PMI is produced monthly by J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit in association with the Institute for Supply Management and the International Federation […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Industry data through the end January, including drivers of steel prices, supply and demand, are all pointing up as the year got off to a strong start. As the month ended, the Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum indicator was pointing to higher flat rolled steel prices over the next 30 to 60 days as […]
Manufacturing activity slipped slightly in January, according to the latest Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM Index edged downward to 59.1 percent from 59.3 percent in December, but remained higher than its average reading of 57.4 for 2017. Indexes for new orders fell 2 points to 65.4 percent and production […]
The Chicago Business Barometer retreated 2.1 points in January to 65.7, but remained an encouraging start for 2018. The barometer was 28.3 percent higher than the January 2016 reading and above the average of 63.7 in the second half of 2017. New orders and output slowed in January. Orders were at a five-month low accompanied […]
For those who were hoping President Trump’s State of the Union address last night might provide some clarity on U.S. trade policy, perhaps even a brief mention of NAFTA or Section 232, his remarks were a disappointment. The only time he mentioned “steel” was in describing “the steel in America’s spine” in overcoming the challenges […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in December, but recovered in January and remains at an extremely high level, according to The Conference Board’s January Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in January was 125.4, up from 123.1 in December. Last July, the composite reached 120 for the first time since November 2000 and […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in December, recovered partially in January and surged in February to the highest level since November 2000, according to The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in February was 130.8, up from 124.3 in January (1985=100). The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 125.3 in […]
Economic indicators are strong overall and portend well for the first half of 2018. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing, construction, steel activity and the overall market in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will […]
The latest HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast expects accelerated residential construction in the U.S. through the first half of the 2018. Construction will slow in the second half as the U.S. enters a “brief and mild macroeconomic recession in 2019.” Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the […]
As plugged into Washington as they may be, the leadership of the Steel Manufacturers Association is in the dark on Section 232, just like everyone else. Queried by reporters last week during SMA’s board meeting in Florida, the trade group’s officers could offer no inside information on what to expect from President Trump as he […]
Durable goods orders increased at their fastest pace in six months, gaining 2.9 percent after an upwardly revised 1.7 percent advance in November. On a year-over-year basis, orders increased 5.8 percent from 2016, the most in six years. Durable goods are items that are meant to last at least three years. Civilian aircraft orders jumped […]
The growth of U.S. Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter of 2017 declined from the strong performance of the second and third quarters, but the overall trend is good. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter on Friday. Growth was reported to be 2.57 percent […]