Metalforming firms are concerned about business activity in the second half of this year, according to the July 2019 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Sixty percent of participants expect no change in economic activity during the next three months (up from 59 percent in June), 16 percent predict an improvement in activity (compared […]
Trade actions have imposed new and increased burdens on both U.S. Customs and Border Protection and on importers, reported the American Institute of International Steel in a July 8 blog by AIIS Customs Committee Chairman and attorney Steven W. Baker. “Importers have recently been faced with many seldom used or new and unprecedented trade remedy […]
In second-quarter 2019, all nine regions of the U.S. had positive employment growth. Second-quarter regional employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the strong employment situation that we reported at the national level two weeks ago. In the second quarter, the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Latest HR indexes have physical trading higher at around $555/ST to $560/ST, which appears to reflect the first of the three mill […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Lighter volume summer market conditions prevail in the HR futures market. After six consecutive price increases, in the HR index that the […]
Durable goods orders rose 2 percent in June after two months of declines, surprising economists who expected a much softer increase. Orders increased to $246 billion from $241 billion in May. The rise was due primarily to commercial aircraft orders, which jumped 75.5 percent after two months of dismal results related to issues with Boeing’s […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
In this report, we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar. In fact, at any given time, some are always moving in the opposite direction. The latest value of […]
Most indicators of manufacturing activity are still positive, but if trends continue, growth will become negative by late summer. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and […]
The Producer Price Index, inclusive of all commodities, has been relatively stable in 2019. In the last 12 months the prices of cold-rolled steel sheet and aluminum have declined in unison, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data performed by Steel market Update. This report is intended to provide subscribers with a […]
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace from mid-May through early July, although manufacturing production was generally flat, reported the Federal Reserve in its July 17 Beige Book. The Fed’s periodic survey of the market found businesses have a generally positive outlook for the coming months, with expectations of continued modest growth despite […]
Manufacturing conditions improved in New York State in July, says the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index rebounded from contraction to gain 13 points and register 4.3. Shipments increased during the month while new orders were essentially flat. Indices for unfilled orders and inventories moved lower […]
The United Steelworkers have a new leader as of today. Thomas M. Conway was installed as the eighth international president, replacing Leo Gerard, who has retired. “I’ve known Tom for 25 years. He’s earned my admiration, demonstrating a special toughness and a willingness to take on the most difficult jobs and negotiations,” Gerard said. “He […]
The rate of job creation in the U.S. in 2019 is slowing, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The recent employment reports provide mixed signals. Job openings are high, unemployment is low, but the rate of job creation is slowing. This is probably due to […]
In the last 12 months the rate of job creation in the primary metals industries has been slower than in manufacturing as a whole, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In June, 191,000 jobs were created in the private sector and government gained 33,000 positions. Table 1 breaks […]
Demand for long products is very strong, driven by the construction industry. Demand for sheet products is declining. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and imports/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply […]
Commerce Department data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the AISI and MSCI is most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on manufacturing inventories, shipments and new orders for total U.S. manufacturing […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
Manufacturing technology orders in May rose 7.3 percent from April to $378.4 million. The Association for Manufacturing Technology reported orders for metal cutting technologies increased 4.5 percent from the previous month while orders for forming and fabricating jumped 64.8 percent. Total orders fell almost 22 percent from May 2018. Orders for the first five months […]
It has been some time since we shared comments from one of our trading friends located in China. There have been significant changes in the Chinese steel industry, and the U.S. tariffs on China are having an impact, according to our source. Here is what he had to say: “The Chinese market has not flexed […]
Steel prices dominated the industry headlines in June, falling between $60 and $85 per ton depending on the product, or roughly 10 percent. Steel Market Update received reports of deals on hot rolled steel below $500 per ton. The mills also made headlines late in the month with their announcement of a $40 per ton […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 51.7 percent in June from 52.1 percent in May, its lowest reading since October 2016. The headline PMI has been softening since September 2018, noted Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Softening this month was primarily due to demand and inputs […]
Global manufacturing contracted in June with manufacturing indices falling as trade tensions and tariffs impacted business conditions. At 49.4, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI contracted to its lowest rate in six-and-a-half years. International trade continued to weaken with export orders falling for the tenth consecutive month. The majority of countries in the June survey […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board decline sharply in June following a downward revision of the May data. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in June […]
Global steel production hit an all-time high in April and that record was smashed in May. Global steel production in April achieved a new high annual rate of 1.880 billion metric tons (Mt). Production surged in May to an annual rate of 1.953 billion Mt. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion Mt and capacity […]
The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q1 2019 was 3.1 percent, but the mix of components gives cause for concern. This SMU report is very similar to the one we published for the first estimate on April 27. The first estimate for Q2 2019 will be published on July 26. After the worst […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel From 7/11/2018 up to this Wednesday, 6/26/2019, the HR index that the CME uses to settle the HR futures contract has dropped […]
The Precision Metalforming Association says metalforming companies continue to be concerned about future business conditions. The May report, sampling 100 metalforming companies, shows little change in their confidence that orders and general business activity will increase. “PMA’s monthly Business Conditions Report reveals that metalforming manufacturers continue to show concern about business activity,” said PMA President […]
Manufactured durable goods orders declined in May by 1.3 percent to $243.4 billion, reported the U.S. Census Bureau. Orders have fallen in three of the last four months and the decline was steeper than expected in May. Civilian aircraft orders were to blame for much of the decline, plummeting 28.2 percent on difficulties at Boeing […]
In this report, we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel trading and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar. In fact, at any given time, some are always moving in the opposite direction. The latest value […]