Contributor: Brett Linton

Total US steel exports declined again in June, down 2% month-on-month (m/m) to 773,000 short tons (st) according to the latest US Department of Commerce data.

June steel import data was finalized at 2.15 million short tons (st) this week, down 24% from May according to the latest US Commerce Department release. June represents the lowest monthly import rate seen this year. July import licenses now tally up to 2.29 million st as of Aug. 4, potentially recovering 6% from June. […]

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

SMU’s sheet prices rose by an average of $10 per short ton (st) this week on most products, the second consecutive week of recovering prices. Aside from the marginal uptick seen last week, this is the first instance of increasing sheet prices since the first week of April.

Domestic steel mill output eased last week for the second consecutive week, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Although production has declined, it remains relatively on the high side compared to rates seen across this year.

SMU’s Monthly Review articles summarize important steel market metrics for the prior month. Our July report contains figures updated through July 31.

Following an uptick in mid-July, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both eased this week. Current Buyers Sentiment has been see-sawing for the past few months, now back down to one of the lowest readings recorded since August 2020.

US drill rig activity resumed its downward trend last week according to the latest data from Baker Hughes. Meanwhile Canadian counts ticked higher for the fifth consecutive week. They now stand near a five-month high.

A look back at the evolution of the SMU Steel Summit conference through the eyes of long-time SMU employee Brett Linton.

Buyers continue to report very short mill lead times on sheet and plate products, according to our latest market canvass of steel service center and manufacturer executives

Steel buyers of sheet products say mills are still flexible on spot pricing this week, though less so than two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data.

The Chicago Business Barometer contracted further in July, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

SMU’s sheet price was largely flat this week, an unusual sight for the better part of the past four months. The same trend was seen for tandem products and plate as well.

Domestic raw steel production eased last week following a seven-week high, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Drilling activity rose in both the US and Canada last week, according to the latest data release from Baker Hughes. US rig activity increased to a six-week high but remains near multi-year lows. Canadian counts continue to improve, now at a 20-week high.

Metalformers expect economic activity to stabilize over the next three months, according to the recently released July Business Conditions Report from the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).

The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) ticked up in June following May’s four-year low, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. While the index improved this month, it continues to indicate weak business conditions among architecture firms.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.

Global steel output eased 2% in June following May’s 14-month high, according to World Steel Association’s (worldsteel) latest release.

Domestic raw steel production rise to a seven-week high last week, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Raw output from US steel mills now stands at the highest recorded weekly rate since the first week of June.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both saw improvement this week. Current sentiment ticked higher but remains near the four-year low seen earlier this month. Future Sentiment continues to indicate that buyers are optimistic for future business conditions.

Drilling activity in the US saw a slight uptick last week but continues to hover near multi-year lows, according to the latest data release from Baker Hughes. Meanwhile Canadian counts rose for the second-consecutive week and are now at a four-month high.

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts are an advanced indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, and other steel products.

Sheet steel buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price on new orders, according to our most recent survey data collected this week.

Steel mill lead times remain short according to our latest market canvass of steel service center and manufacturer buyers. Of the sheet and plate products SMU tracks, production times for all materials are nearing historical lows not seen in months or years.

SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell to $640 per short ton (st) on average on Tuesday. That’s down $10/st from last week and marks the lowest point for HR prices since December 2022, according to our pricing archives. SMU’s HR price is now $5/ton below 2023’s low of $645/st, which occurred against the backdrop of a United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike.

US raw steel mill production ticked up to 7.57 million short tons (st) in May, a 4% increase from the prior month, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data

New York state saw a continued decline in manufacturing activity in July, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.