Contributor: Brett Linton

Current steel mill lead time averages are a few days longer than levels seen one month prior, but remain near historical lows for both sheet and plate products.

Both our Current and Future Indices are now up to multi-month highs, indicating continued optimism among steel buyers.

Steel buyers found mills slightly more willing to negotiate spot prices this week, according to our most recent survey data. Though this negotiation rate has ticked up vs. our previous market check, overall rates have been trending downward since July’s highs.

Flat-rolled steel prices were flat or up moderately this week amid mixed signals from the market.

Durgesh Singh of Magswitch Technologies is the recipient of the 2024 SMU NexGen Leadership Award.

Having risen for three weeks in a row, weekly production is now at the highest rate seen since February 2023.

Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil increased $15 per short ton (st) from last week to $710/st.

Steelmaking raw material prices have moved in differing directions across August, a change of pace from the declines seen in June and July, according to SMU’s latest analysis.

The number of US drill rigs in operation ticked lower last week while Canadian activity increased, according to the latest data released from Baker Hughes. US rig counts have gone up and down since June, hovering near multi-year lows. Canadian activity has trended upwards since a mid-May seasonal low, rising to a five-month high last week.

Global steel output fell 5% in July according to World Steel Association’s (worldsteel) latest release. Total steel mill production around the world tallied up to 152.8 million metric tons (mt) for the month of July, the second-lowest monthly rate seen this year.

Within the space of a few days, we'll all be leaving on a jet plane. That's not completely true. A couple of SMU staff in the Atlanta area will be driving to Steel Summit 2024. Still, the hour where we kick of conference is quickly approaching. In anticipation, we are providing one of our handy-dandy crosswords in honor of the event.

The July AIA ABI score has recovered nearly six points over the last two months following the near four-year low recorded in May

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

US scrap prices picked up in August, though near-term demand is expected to remain weak, scrap sources told SMU.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in differing directions this week. Both indices have generally trended downward across 2024, but continue to indicate optimism among steel buyers.

Oil and gas drill rig activity in the US inched lower last week while holding steady in Canada, according to the latest report from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes.

Three out of four of our market survey respondents report that steel mills are open to negotiating new order prices this week, a slight decline compared to our previous market check.

Steel buyers continue to report short mill lead times for both sheet and plate products, according to SMU's latest canvass of the market. Lead times for hot-rolled and plate products marginally increased from our late July survey, likely due to limited restocking in anticipation of upcoming mill outages for scheduled maintenance.

This Premium analysis covers North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts are an advanced indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, and other steel products.

SMU’s sheet prices increased across the board this week, marking the third consecutive week of rising prices, while plate prices held stable.

Friedman Industries reported positive earnings in its 2024 fiscal first quarter ended June 30.

After nearing a two-year high in May, the volume of finished steel entering the US market (referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’) receded in June, according to SMU’s latest analysis of data from the Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Total US steel exports declined again in June, down 2% month-on-month (m/m) to 773,000 short tons (st) according to the latest US Department of Commerce data.

June steel import data was finalized at 2.15 million short tons (st) this week, down 24% from May according to the latest US Commerce Department release. June represents the lowest monthly import rate seen this year. July import licenses now tally up to 2.29 million st as of Aug. 4, potentially recovering 6% from June. […]

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

SMU’s sheet prices rose by an average of $10 per short ton (st) this week on most products, the second consecutive week of recovering prices. Aside from the marginal uptick seen last week, this is the first instance of increasing sheet prices since the first week of April.

Domestic steel mill output eased last week for the second consecutive week, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Although production has declined, it remains relatively on the high side compared to rates seen across this year.

SMU’s Monthly Review articles summarize important steel market metrics for the prior month. Our July report contains figures updated through July 31.

Following an uptick in mid-July, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both eased this week. Current Buyers Sentiment has been see-sawing for the past few months, now back down to one of the lowest readings recorded since August 2020.

US drill rig activity resumed its downward trend last week according to the latest data from Baker Hughes. Meanwhile Canadian counts ticked higher for the fifth consecutive week. They now stand near a five-month high.