New orders for US-manufactured durable goods rose in September to a seasonally adjusted $274.7 billion — having risen now for six out of the last seven months. Orders picked up less than expected but still reversed the weaker showings of previous months. Last month’s bookings for durable goods were up roughly 0.04% or $1 billion more […]
News that the Biden Administration is considering a total ban on Russian aluminum imports lifted the market Tuesday afternoon, Oct. 11. The LME aluminum three-month price increased sharply to a high of $2,400 per ton before some of the gains were reversed by the close. The price saw some volatile shifts during the week but […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received […]
Aluminum May Be Approaching the End of Its Long Destocking Cycle Last week, I described our premise about demand versus real consumption. We talked about the market’s natural tendency to destock when prices take a beating as they have during most of 2022. The latest Index of Orders from the Aluminum Association offers some early […]
Natural gas inspired staggering energy prices crush primary aluminum economics The suspension of gas deliveries through the Nord Stream pipeline has further aggravated an already grim energy situation for European aluminum producers. Prices for day-ahead power in Western Europe are stunning in their magnitude: 404 euros/megawatt hour were published on Friday for Germany, France, the […]
Economic conditions are still iffy at best. Housing data continues to suffer with new home sales plunging and inventory reaching the highest it has been since 2009. The Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing indexes both plunged in July as well. The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing skill availability index, which indicates the demand for skilled labor […]
New orders for US manufactured durable goods stalled in July, at a seasonally adjusted $273.5 billion last month, virtually mirroring the month prior. But a pullback on orders for long-lasting goods in July might reflect a cooling in demand amid other signs of a slowing US economy. Last month’s bookings for durable goods were down […]
End use market demand is mixed as mid-year shipment data is reported The recession, inflation, and interest rates remain hot topics for aluminum producers and consumers. As new economic data is announced, both bright spots and points of concern emerge. First, this month’s report on inflation showed a drop month-on-month (MoM) and may signal that […]
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose unexpectedly in June after a surprising increase the month prior. June’s gain was boosted by a surge in defense aircraft as well as a sustained demand for equipment. Last month’s bookings for durable goods were up 1.9% following a 0.8% gain a month earlier, according to the Commerce Department. […]
The US economy contracted in the second quarter of 2022, declining for the second straight quarter. Some economists consider two consecutive quarters of negative GDP to be the definition of a recession. Gross domestic production in Q2 declined at -0.09% annualized pace, according to advanced estimate from the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis […]
Data on US industrial production, capacity utilization, orders and inventories continued to improve through the first half of 2022, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production (IP) Index The IP index is a gauge of output from […]
The US economy shrank in the first quarter of 2022 at a slightly worse rate than expected, with gross domestic production declining at a -1.6% annualized pace, according to the third and final estimate from the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The third review for Q1 was a slight downward revision from […]
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment remains resilient even in the face of deteriorating business and consumer sentiment as well as heightened fears of a recession. Last month’s bookings for durable goods rose 0.7% following a revised 0.4% decline a month earlier, according to the […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, May 11 The CRUspi plunged month-on-month (MoM) in May by over 8.6%, which is the largest percentage point decline since late 2008 and the second-largest ever in terms of total fallen points. Supply chain readjustments for both sheet and steelmaking raw materials in the […]
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rebounded in March after sinking for the first time in five months in February. Last month’s bookings for durable goods rose 0.8% following a revised 1.7% decline a month earlier, according to the Commerce Department. The value of core capital goods orders – a proxy for investment in […]
Data on US industrial production, capacity utilization, new orders and inventories continue to improve. February and March 2022 reports indicate a strengthening manufacturing sector. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production Index The IP index is a gauge of output from factories, mines […]
I shouldn’t say put a fork in this market and call it done. It’s probably too early for that. But some of the anecdotal indicators I mentioned last week are increasingly showing up in the data we and others collect. Take a look at today’s issue: Lead times are still rising, for the most part. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group It is natural to speculate about how well demand for aluminum can hold up given the effects of dramatically higher prices, both on aluminum itself and the broader economy. Conversations with many of our clients’ center on concerns about demand destruction. The logic is simple: With gasoline, food and interest […]
New orders for US manufactured durable goods fell 2.2%, or $6.0 billion, in February, snapping a four-month rally, according to the Commerce Department. Orders at domestic factories for long-lasting goods fell more than expected last month, while business investment fell for the first time in a year. February’s outcome suggests high inflation and ongoing supply […]
It seems all the swans are black now. First we had a pandemic. Now war. You don’t need a reminder from SMU on the terrible human suffering caused by each. When it comes to steel, the result is higher raw material costs and higher prices. Pricing levels that were unimaginable a month ago, when it […]
New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods rose 1.6% in January, doubling earlier estimates of 0.8%, according to the Commerce Department’s report. The surprising gain came following an upward revision in December’s totals to a 1.2% gain from the prior estimate of 0.7% and represents an increase in eight of the last nine months. The […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Nucor and Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) chose to acquire major metal recycling companies just before the Global Financial Crisis. SDI purchased Omnisource for slightly more than $1 billion in November 2007. Nucor followed suit with its $1.4 billion takeover of The David J. Joseph Co. in March 2008. The […]
Durable goods orders took a slight tumble in December, slipping for the first time in three months and suggesting a pause in capital investment as the fourth quarter ended. The decline in December – down 0.9% versus the prior month – reflected a drop in orders for commercial aircraft (transportation) and communications equipment, compounded by […]
Data on U.S. industrial production, capacity utilization, new orders and inventories continued to improve throughout fourth-quarter 2021, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. Note that some of the historical data below has been adjusted by the U.S. Census Bureau […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group It’s that time of year when we start looking ahead as we put the current year in our “rear view mirror.” Here are some of the things that I circulated to the CRU Aluminum Analysis team for consideration among our “top calls for 2022.” These are not officially “blessed,” […]
November was a major letdown for the U.S. labor market, which added just 210,000 jobs, though the unemployment rate ticked slightly lower. The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, in a sign that hiring started to slow even ahead […]
By CRU Advisor Greg Wittbecker LME cash aluminum prices have retreated hard from new 13-year highs, falling from $3,300 last week to reach $2,682 as we completed the week. Supply-side Price Concerns Get a Reality Check but Remain Dangerous Market euphoria over supply-side constraints ran into the effect of China’s “command economy” at work. Power […]
Global steel demand will grow by 4.5% in 2021 and reach 1.855 billion metric tons following a 0.1% growth the year prior, according to World Steel Association’s (worldsteel) October 2021 Short-Range Outlook (SRO). An additional increase of 2.2% to 1.896 billion metric tons in 2022 is forecast for steel demand worldwide. The current forecast assumes […]
September saw the worst monthly performance for the U.S. labor market since January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) job report. The latest data showed the economy created a stingy 194,000 new jobs in September to mark the second disappointing monthly increase in a row. The sharp dive from the 1.091 million positions […]