Hot-rolled coil prices fell modestly this week for the first time in more than a year, lead times slipped below nine weeks for the first time since mid-April, and inventories continue to inch upward. Everyone is tired of hearing about a “tipping point” to this “unprecedented” market. But how else do you interpret this? Imports, […]
Flat Rolled = 51.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 54 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories continued to grow in August, while shipments rose from the lower levels seen in July. At the end of August, service centers carried 51.6 shipping days of flat rolled supply on an […]
By CRU Senior Editor Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Steel sheet prices were either little changed or fell w/w across most of the globe, with the U.S. market now joining in the global cooldown. Prices in the U.S. fell w/w for the first time in over year, albeit the decline was only […]
Tonnage moved across the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway has risen significantly thanks to a strong showing from vessels carrying iron ore and steel. Total cargo stood at 22.8 million tons (20.7 million metric tonnes) through the end of August – the midpoint of the Great Lakes shipping season – up more than 5% from 21.7 […]
Sheet prices continue to wobble with hot-rolled coiled prices actually declining, albeit modestly, for the first time in more than a year. The concern: that the market is at a peak – and perhaps heading down the other side. Hot rolled coil prices have been flat in prior weeks, but they have not declined since […]
July apparent steel supply increased 312,000 tons over June to 9.70 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is now the highest supply level seen since January 2019, a 30-month record. July supply is up 2.73 million tons compared to the same month […]
Container ships are stacking up all around the U.S. as the ports are overwhelmed by surging imports of all types of goods. Delays at the ports may further extend the already-long lead times for the growing orders of foreign steel. Imports of all types of products from Asia, for example, increased 32.4% in the first […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Market fundamentals in the North American sheet market continue to evolve and clearly suggest that supply tightness is easing. From a broad point of view, these fundamentals include rising supply, service center inventories that are balanced with outbound shipments, and demand growth that […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker Steel and aluminum are vigorous competitors, but share a common plight, supply chain woes. Just-in-time manufacturing, lean manufacturing, vendor-managed inventory…we all know the buzzwords that have shaped the way both the aluminum and steel supply chains have operated for several decades. Since the Global Financial Crisis, the primary aluminum market […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker China has been wrestling with inflationary tendencies in its aluminum market for some time: Spot Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) high aluminum is at $3,516 per ton; that compares to $2,139 a year ago and $1,849 five years ago. The Chinese State Reserve Board (SRB) is releasing part of its […]
The end of summer marks a return to normal in Washington. Congress is back, and so are the president’s cabinet and advisors. This is the time of year for officials to float new ideas. In the international trade arena, American business groups grew increasingly impatient with the lack of ideas on resetting the economic relationship […]
The first rule of predicting steel prices in 2021 is you don’t predict steel prices. I broke that rule last month when I called a peak. I still think I was right about that. But timing is everything. And when exactly we hit that peak remains a matter of debate. Some market participants think we’re […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. David has over 20 years of trading experience in financial markets and has been active in the ferrous futures space for over eight years. You can learn more at www.thefeldstein.com or add him on twitter @TheFeldstein and on Instragram at #thefeldstein. Since Aug. […]
There’s a good chance the Section 232 tariffs on steel imports from the European Union could be replaced by a tariff rate quota (TRQ) as soon as November as a result of trade talks now under way between officials from the U.S. and EU. The EU is strongly opposed to the Trump-era “national security” tariffs […]
Lobbying groups for U.S. steel mills and the United Steelworkers (USW) union want trade restraints placed on the EU to prevent potential “import surges” from the region. The call – from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) and the United Steelworkers union (USW) – comes even as the U.S. and the […]
Market momentum suggests that flat rolled steel prices are likely to continue moving up, at least in the short term, as hot rolled hit a new record high once again this week at an average of $1,955 per ton, up $20 over last week, according to SMU’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. […]
Final Census data shows that total foreign steel imports increased 5% from June to July, reaching 3.08 million tons. As stated in our preliminary import analysis, this is now the highest monthly import level of 2021, surpassing the previous month. The last time monthly import levels exceeded this rate was January 2020 when 3.16 million tons […]
Phil Bell, president of the Steel Manufacturers Association, puts the chances of the U.S. steel industry facing a carbon tax at roughly 50-50, “though it is trending that way,” he said in remarks during Steel Market Update’s Steel Summit last month in Atlanta. “SMA is opposed to any taxes that aren’t necessary and is opposed […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Richard Lu, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor In a recent Insight titled “Iron ore at $140 /dmt – what’s driving the fall?”, we explained that weak demand in China has caused a sharp iron ore price fall and we expect the downtrend to persist for the rest of the year. […]
Steel prices continued to climb through the month of August, marking one full year of increasing prices. Hot rolled steel prices increased $45 per ton ($2.25 per cwt) throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,935 per ton ($96.75 per cwt) as of Tuesday. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator remains unchanged since the August 2020 adjustment to higher, indicating prices […]
As domestic hot rolled steel prices surpass $1,900 per ton, foreign steel imports continue to tempt U.S. buyers, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. While domestic prices rise week after week, foreign prices have remained steady or declined, holding potential discounts of 16% to 44% after taking freight […]
New orders, production and prices grew in August, while employment contracted and supply backlogs expanded, said the Institute for Supply Management in its August 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The Manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 percentage point in August to 59.9%, edging higher and indicating expansion in the overall economy for the 15th consecutive month […]
Flat-rolled steel prices are again mixed. Hot rolled is up $20 per ton, cold rolled is unchanged, and coated products are down $20-25 per ton. (Plate – following mill price hike announcements – is up a sharp $105 per ton.) The mixed signals are not a sure sign of the market inflecting. And Hurricane Ida […]
Preliminary Census data shows that total foreign steel imports increased 3% from June to July, reaching 3.01 million tons. This is now the highest monthly import level of 2021, surpassing the previous month. The last time monthly import levels exceeded this rate was January 2020 when 3.16 million tons of steel entered the country. August import licenses are currently […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker The fundamentals in the aluminum market are continuing to tighten as we complete the third quarter. Growing Deficit in 2021 Driven by Chinese and Canadian Production Excursions CRU has substantially increased the size of the global deficit for 2021, moving it from a 240,000-ton surplus to a deficit of 1,180,000 […]
We often talk a lot about hot-rolled coil prices in Final Thoughts. I’d like to take a deeper dive into coated prices today. It’s been an almost straight line up for an entire year for flat-rolled steel prices. And galvanized is no exception. Galvanized base prices are at $2,070 per ton ($103.50 per cwt). That’s […]
In the near term, ferrous scrap prices are heading down. But in the long term – with the proliferation of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking around the globe putting added pressure on scrap supplies – the price trend for scrap is definitely pointing upward. The cost of scrap and other metallics is of high interest […]
I was pleased to see many of you this past week in Atlanta at the SMU Steel Summit. It is certainly one of the largest (and most significant) steel conferences in the United States. This year was a first – a hybrid conference, with about 800 in-person attendees and 300 virtual. I doubt it will […]
Total steel imports into the United States jumped by more than 20% in the first seven months of the year, versus the same period in 2020, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute, based on preliminary Census data. Foreign steel, including billet and slabs, totaled 17.7 million net tons for a 20.6% year-over-year increase. Finished […]
Two of the steel industry’s most respected analysts delivered a reality check to the market on Monday during SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta. Record-high steel prices enjoyed by steelmakers and distributors for the past year “can’t last,” they declared. Simply put, supply-demand fundamentals indicate that prices are due – indeed overdue – to drop significantly in the next […]