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    Hot Rolled Futures – Energetic Markets


    Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management for Feralloy Corporation, Cargill Steel Service Centers and Plateplus Inc. You can learn more about Metal Edge at www.metaledgepartners.com. Bryan can be reached at Bryan@metaledgepartners.com.

    Energy in its broadest definition has seemingly dominated headlines as of late, whether it is the equity markets suggesting a rotation into the beleaguered sector due to underinvestment in exploration because of low crude prices, a shift in investment to green energy, or geopolitical factors acutely affecting supply and demand factors in places from China to Europe. West Texas Intermediate crude prices traded as high as $81.68/bbl today, while natural gas prices here in the U.S. rallied near $6/MMBtu before trailing off to close near $5.70/MMBtu. Most have likely already felt this impact at the gas pump or will likely feel these impacts during the winter months as heating bills rise.

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    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.