Most of my day today was spent communicating with steel buyers and a few steel mills to see where prices are being offered on the spot market by the mills, and where transactions were occurring. As I went through this process, I also collect comments about whether increases are “sticking’ and if the industry believes […]
Steel Market Update has moved our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled products from Neutral to Higher. We continue to reference plate Price Momentum at Lower. This move is being made after the domestic steel mills, led by Nucor, announced two rounds of $40 per ton price increases over the past two weeks. SMU is […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
Lead times for steel delivery have moved out a bit in the past two weeks, lending support to recent mill price increases. The average lead time for hot rolled has moved up to nearly four weeks, cold rolled to nearly six weeks, and coated steels to more than six weeks. Plate lead times are bucking […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
I am carefully watching flat rolled and plate lead times, the ongoing negotiations and tone of the discussions between buyers and sellers of steel, as well as industry sentiment and how service centers are handling their spot pricing into their customers. We are seeing some signs of momentum shifting on some products (especially coated), but […]
Our pricing data was collected on Monday and Tuesday of this week prior to the new Nucor price increase announcement on flat rolled steel. We are seeing the market as stable to slightly higher. This week, especially in light of the second price announcement (combined totaling $80 per ton), we will be able to see […]
Last week, the domestic steel mills raised prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated products (galvanized, Galvalume, etc.) by approximately $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt). Since then, we have seen lead times move on hot rolled by about 1 to 1.5 weeks, according to the steel buyers canvassed yesterday and today. Cold rolled and coated […]
Steel Market Update asked steel buyers this week to respond to the following question: Do you believe a floor has been put on prices and they will rise from here? Here are some of the responses received: “A floor is possible, but I fear that if we see the expected downward move for scrap prices […]
Global manufacturing contracted in June with manufacturing indices falling as trade tensions and tariffs impacted business conditions. At 49.4, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI contracted to its lowest rate in six-and-a-half years. International trade continued to weaken with export orders falling for the tenth consecutive month. The majority of countries in the June survey […]
A note this morning from one of my scrap friends: “Btw, we are not getting too excited just yet, the scrap market is clearly beginning to bottom a bit. Should strengthen a little in August.” I am getting mixed messages on lead times, but I think the consensus is lead times have moved out […]
This week I will be working with steel buyers (and steel mills) to see how the price increase on flat rolled is being received. As is normal when lead times are short and price announcements are made, many mills held pricing through the end of last week for those who had outstanding quotes or needed […]
There seem to be more questions than answers regarding the move by the domestic flat rolled steel mills to increase spot base pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The move was taken as the low end of the benchmark hot rolled steel base pricing was dipping below $500 per ton. The […]
Flat rolled and plate steel prices tumbled again this week. The question now: Is this the last drop we will see as the domestic steel mills have stepped forward and announced price increases to the tune of $40 per ton? Base prices for benchmark hot rolled were beginning to pass through the psychological $500 per […]
As I expected, Nucor came out with a $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) price increase on flat rolled this afternoon. This is the first Nucor price increase since Feb. 20, 2019. Shortly after the Nucor announcement, USS/POSCO followed with an increase letter of their own and then NLMK USA put out a letter identifying the minimum […]
One thing is certain in this crazy steel market, service centers are taking their spot prices lower and lower as each week passes. Manufacturing companies are almost unanimous in their view that flat rolled steel distributors are decreasing their spot offers. We saw 93 percent of the manufacturing companies responding to last week’s SMU flat […]
With steel prices at such surprisingly low levels, it’s only a matter of time before the domestic mills announce a price increase. The only point of debate is when. There’s clearly some disagreement over whether the market has found a bottom yet. Slightly more than half of the service center and OEM executives responding to […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
The construction segment of the market is booming. This is what we heard from the HARDI steel conference call we participated in last week, and it is what we heard from many companies over the two days SMU was in New York City earlier this week. Whenever we travel, one of the things we always […]
The market is keeping a close eye on mill lead times, hoping for some sign they are extending and perhaps signaling a pickup in order activity at the mills. Steel Market Update’s latest numbers, which show little change in lead times, are sure to disappoint. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand […]
Australian steel producer BlueScope lowered its earnings estimate for FY 2019 based on margins and market conditions. BlueScope now expects an increase in underlying EBIT of 6 percent for the year, down from previous guidance of 10 percent. EBIT for FY 2019 is expected to be around $1.35 billion and $500 million for the second […]
After a few weeks of dynamic price drops on all flat rolled and plate products, we saw prices moderate this week. Maybe a better way to put it is prices were flat to down slightly compared to one week ago when we saw major reductions in the spot numbers. Here is how we see prices […]
Last night, Steel Market Update participated in the annual Bank of America Merrill Lynch dinner hosted by metals and mining analyst Timna Tanners. We also spoke at the CRU Steel Briefing a little earlier in the day. Here are some of the key takeaways from those meetings. Mill Lead Times Short Flat rolled steel mill […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
Last week I spoke with Mark Millett, CEO of SDI, and he said to me, “Crazy market, isn’t it?” That is proving to be an understatement. Our price indices took major hits this week as we saw prices drop across the board. We heard the drop was blamed on scrap, on short lead times, on […]
Imported steel prices are no longer competitive with domestic steel mill pricing – even on light gauge galvanized and other specialty products that normally have gone to trading companies. Lead times are short, but as one steel executive put it to me this afternoon, “It’s not that the mills have no business. [For this time […]
Steel Market Update data supports the widespread view that steel demand is unusually sluggish for this time of year. Nine out of 10 steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week characterized demand as flat or declining. Only a small single-digit percentage see improving demand. About 35 percent of the […]
Lead times for spot orders of all types of steel products continued to shorten in the past two weeks with demand falling below the pace of steel production. The average lead time for hot rolled is now below three and a half weeks, cold rolled is nearing five weeks, galvanized is less than six weeks […]
Lead times for spot orders of all types of steel products continued to shorten in the past two weeks with demand falling below the pace of steel production. The average lead time for hot rolled is now below three and a half weeks, cold rolled is nearing five weeks, galvanized is less than six weeks […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]