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    HRC Futures: Curve Flatter

    Written by Gaurav Chhibbar


    Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in Metal and Freight markets in Singapore before moving to the U.S. You can learn more about Metal Edge a www.metaledgepartners.com. Gaurav can be reached at gaurav@metaledgepartners.com for queries/comments/questions.

    The HRC forward curve came under significant pressure as the market saw a downward print in the benchmark HRC index on Wednesday. Concern over future pricing of HRC and sliding spot levels meant sellers were looking for those bids even if it meant shaving off the price levels considerably. Day-over-day the Q2 price levels came down by $9, while Q3 dropped by $12. Q4 price levels came down by $5, however a surprising positive change in December meant a relatively modest drop in Q4 versus the rest of the curve.

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    Sheet and plate price gains accelerate as 2026 tons dry up

    Sheet and plate prices continue to push higher as mills charge a premium for what little spot tonnage remains for 2026, market participants said. SMU’s price assessment for hot-rolled (HR) coil now stands at $1,290 per short ton (st) on average, up $10/st week over week. HR price gains averaged $5/st w/w throughout July and August, with no changes in prices some weeks and gains of at most $15/st w/w. In September and October to date, in contrast, prices have increased every week—with the average gain at $11.25/st w/w and w/w gains as high as $20/st. Prices for cold-rolled and coated products continued to increase as well. SMU's price assessment for cold-rolled (CR) coil clocked in at...