Overseas
January 4, 2024
Written by David Schollaert
US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices moved up again this week and remain significantly more expensive than offshore product. Imported hot bands have also seen repeated price increases, but the gains remain far behind those for domestic material.
All told, US HRC prices are still roughly 25% more expensive than imports, a premium that is down only slightly from our last analysis in late December.
Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts flat steel demand in 2026, as contraction in China and disruption in the Gulf region offset growth in India and other markets, including the US. Global demand is expected to rise slightly in 2027. The Brussels-based association’s Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2026 pegs global steel demand at 1,722 million metric tons (mt), essentially unchanged from 2025. For 2027, worldsteel forecasts 1.7% growth to 1,752 million mt. “The trajectory we set out in April holds, but the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had expected,” commented Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee. “Global steel demand is now forecast to be flat in 2026 rather than to grow modestly, and to grow by 1.7% in 2027 rather than 2.2%. Almost the whole of that revision is a China story,” Calcerrada added.
The Department of Commerce is adjusting the countervailing duties (CVDs) on imports of hot-rolled steel flat products from two South Korean producers. The agency released the final results of its administrative review for calendar year 2023, finding a lower rate for Hyundai but a higher rate for POSCO. Tariff and trade issues have led South Korea to overtake Canada this year as the largest foreign supplier of HR.
President Trump’s senior counsel for trade and manufacturing, Peter Navarro, has criticized South Korea for subsidized and transshipped steel. “South Korea is inundating the U.S. with highly subsidized steel and steel transshipped from China,” Navarro wrote in a post on X. “We are cracking down." In comments to C-SPAN, Navarro pointed to the White House’s recent report, the Great Transshipment Scam.
Steel imports into the US crept higher in August and continued climbing in September, according to the Department of Commerce's latest import license data. August imports rose 3.4% from July to a 15-month high. September license data collected through Oct. 5 shows another 6.2% month-on-month increase. Imports continue to recover from some of the lowest levels since 2020, seen late last year through February this year.