The Chicago Business Barometer rose six points in August after two months of contraction. The Index posted a 50.4 last month, compared to 44.4 in July. MNI Indicators still sees an overall softening in business conditions despite the gains in August. The three-month moving average, a better indicator of conditions, fell to 48.2 Supplier deliveries […]
Don’t get too worried about a recession just yet, advised ITR economist Alan Beaulieu at the SMU 2019 Steel Summit in Atlanta this week. The economy is slowing down and consumption will be tepid for the rest of this year and into the first half of 2020. But conditions will improve in the second half […]
U.S. gross domestic product had positive growth in every region of the country in all four quarters of 2018 and in Q1 2019, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data […]
Orders for durable goods increased for a second month, gaining 2.1 percent in July, according the latest data from the Commerce Department. Transportation again led the gain with a surge of 47.8 percent for aircraft and parts. Excluding the volatile transportation category, durable goods orders were down 0.4 percent. Core capital goods, non-defense minus aircraft and […]
Material Sciences Corp. was named as one of five winners of the 2019 Altair Enlightment Award given to honor the greatest achievement in vehicle weight savings. MSC was honored for its MSC Smart Steel, a new multilayer steel laminate engineered as a direct substitute for low carbon steel stamped vehicle body parts. Offering a 20 […]
The labor productivity of nonfarm businesses grew by 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The average of the last six quarters has been 0.40 percent. Unit labor costs increased 2.5 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity […]
Our analysis of 11 manufacturing indicators suggests that growth is slowing and, if trends continue, will become negative in the fourth quarter. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores U.S. Steel recently announced its intent to withdraw from spot market-linked adjustable price contracts in 2020 (i.e. contracts where the price moves with the spot market in some way). The following offers insight on the use of such contracts and what may come about if the intended change is […]
Despite concerns over trade wars and recession, the Empire State Manufacturing Index expanded in August. The index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed modest improvement in August, beating economists’ expectations. The general business index rose for a second month, increasing to 4.8 from 4.3 in July. “New orders increased after declining for […]
Job creation slowed in July but is still healthy and in its 10th year of uninterrupted expansion, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. In July, 16,000 jobs were created in manufacturing industries and 4,000 in construction activities. About 148,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while […]
The rate of job creation in the U.S. in 2019 is slowing, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in July declined to 164,000 from a downwardly revised 193,000 in June. June was revised down by 31,000 and May down by 10,000. Rising […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Of the eight indicators of economic health tracked by Steel Market Update, none is flashing red. Taken as a whole, they signal that the U.S. economy is safe from recession for […]
Rising prime steel prices are bringing some welcome relief to sellers of secondary as well, but higher prices do not necessarily translate into higher margins. Sources tell Steel Market Update that conditions in the nonprime market have improved, but remain challenging. Nonprime or secondary steel includes coils that are rejected because they fail to meet […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Total IP contracted q/q in both Q1 and Q2, but the June report pointed to potential stabilization in manufacturing. YTD through June, total IP is up 2.2 percent y/y, but it is averaging just 1 percent higher than in 2018. Since we expect little expansion during H2, we now […]
In June, China’s share of global steel production exceeded 55 percent for the first time. In May and June, the annual rate of global steel production exceeded 1.9 billion metric tons. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion metric tons and capacity utilization in June was 80.0 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update […]
The government’s first estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 was 2.1 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the first quarter. The current U.S. expansion is now the longest on record at 121 months dating back to June 2009. Last Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of GDP growth […]
Consumer confidence, as reported by The Conference Board, declined sharply in June but recovered in July. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator, therefore we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in July was 135.7, up from […]
The long-awaited rebound in steel prices was the biggest story of the month in July. Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicator was pointing firmly upward by the end of the month following three $40 price increase announcements by flat rolled steel producers. The benchmark price of hot rolled steel hit $580 per ton in July, […]
The Chicago Business Barometer recorded a second month in contraction, falling to 44.4 in July from 49.7 in June and the weakest third-quarter start since 2009. Production was at a 10-year low, falling 22 percent on the month. Further contraction of new orders indicated subdued demand resulting in trimming of workforce. The employment indicator was […]
Manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate around the globe in July as trade disputes and tension took a toll on national economies. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 in July, slipping slightly from 49.4 in June and remaining in contraction for a third month. Nineteen of 30 nations surveyed in July signaled downturns, said […]
A new bipartisan Senate bill on transportation infrastructure is getting the enthusiastic support of industry associations. The America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act of 2019 will authorize $287 billion over five years to improve the nation’s roads and bridges. The legislation includes provisions to improve road safety, accelerate project delivery, improve resiliency to disasters and reduce highway […]
Metalforming firms are concerned about business activity in the second half of this year, according to the July 2019 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Sixty percent of participants expect no change in economic activity during the next three months (up from 59 percent in June), 16 percent predict an improvement in activity (compared […]
Trade actions have imposed new and increased burdens on both U.S. Customs and Border Protection and on importers, reported the American Institute of International Steel in a July 8 blog by AIIS Customs Committee Chairman and attorney Steven W. Baker. “Importers have recently been faced with many seldom used or new and unprecedented trade remedy […]
In second-quarter 2019, all nine regions of the U.S. had positive employment growth. Second-quarter regional employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the strong employment situation that we reported at the national level two weeks ago. In the second quarter, the […]
Durable goods orders rose 2 percent in June after two months of declines, surprising economists who expected a much softer increase. Orders increased to $246 billion from $241 billion in May. The rise was due primarily to commercial aircraft orders, which jumped 75.5 percent after two months of dismal results related to issues with Boeing’s […]
In this report, we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar. In fact, at any given time, some are always moving in the opposite direction. The latest value of […]
Most indicators of manufacturing activity are still positive, but if trends continue, growth will become negative by late summer. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and […]
The Producer Price Index, inclusive of all commodities, has been relatively stable in 2019. In the last 12 months the prices of cold-rolled steel sheet and aluminum have declined in unison, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data performed by Steel market Update. This report is intended to provide subscribers with a […]
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace from mid-May through early July, although manufacturing production was generally flat, reported the Federal Reserve in its July 17 Beige Book. The Fed’s periodic survey of the market found businesses have a generally positive outlook for the coming months, with expectations of continued modest growth despite […]
Manufacturing conditions improved in New York State in July, says the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index rebounded from contraction to gain 13 points and register 4.3. Shipments increased during the month while new orders were essentially flat. Indices for unfilled orders and inventories moved lower […]