The rate of job creation in the U.S. in 2019 is slowing, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in July declined to 164,000 from a downwardly revised 193,000 in June. June was revised down by 31,000 and May down by 10,000. Rising […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Of the eight indicators of economic health tracked by Steel Market Update, none is flashing red. Taken as a whole, they signal that the U.S. economy is safe from recession for […]
Rising prime steel prices are bringing some welcome relief to sellers of secondary as well, but higher prices do not necessarily translate into higher margins. Sources tell Steel Market Update that conditions in the nonprime market have improved, but remain challenging. Nonprime or secondary steel includes coils that are rejected because they fail to meet […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Total IP contracted q/q in both Q1 and Q2, but the June report pointed to potential stabilization in manufacturing. YTD through June, total IP is up 2.2 percent y/y, but it is averaging just 1 percent higher than in 2018. Since we expect little expansion during H2, we now […]
In June, China’s share of global steel production exceeded 55 percent for the first time. In May and June, the annual rate of global steel production exceeded 1.9 billion metric tons. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion metric tons and capacity utilization in June was 80.0 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update […]
The government’s first estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 was 2.1 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the first quarter. The current U.S. expansion is now the longest on record at 121 months dating back to June 2009. Last Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of GDP growth […]
Consumer confidence, as reported by The Conference Board, declined sharply in June but recovered in July. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator, therefore we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in July was 135.7, up from […]
The long-awaited rebound in steel prices was the biggest story of the month in July. Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicator was pointing firmly upward by the end of the month following three $40 price increase announcements by flat rolled steel producers. The benchmark price of hot rolled steel hit $580 per ton in July, […]
The Chicago Business Barometer recorded a second month in contraction, falling to 44.4 in July from 49.7 in June and the weakest third-quarter start since 2009. Production was at a 10-year low, falling 22 percent on the month. Further contraction of new orders indicated subdued demand resulting in trimming of workforce. The employment indicator was […]
Manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate around the globe in July as trade disputes and tension took a toll on national economies. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 in July, slipping slightly from 49.4 in June and remaining in contraction for a third month. Nineteen of 30 nations surveyed in July signaled downturns, said […]
A new bipartisan Senate bill on transportation infrastructure is getting the enthusiastic support of industry associations. The America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act of 2019 will authorize $287 billion over five years to improve the nation’s roads and bridges. The legislation includes provisions to improve road safety, accelerate project delivery, improve resiliency to disasters and reduce highway […]
Metalforming firms are concerned about business activity in the second half of this year, according to the July 2019 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Sixty percent of participants expect no change in economic activity during the next three months (up from 59 percent in June), 16 percent predict an improvement in activity (compared […]
Trade actions have imposed new and increased burdens on both U.S. Customs and Border Protection and on importers, reported the American Institute of International Steel in a July 8 blog by AIIS Customs Committee Chairman and attorney Steven W. Baker. “Importers have recently been faced with many seldom used or new and unprecedented trade remedy […]
In second-quarter 2019, all nine regions of the U.S. had positive employment growth. Second-quarter regional employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the strong employment situation that we reported at the national level two weeks ago. In the second quarter, the […]
Durable goods orders rose 2 percent in June after two months of declines, surprising economists who expected a much softer increase. Orders increased to $246 billion from $241 billion in May. The rise was due primarily to commercial aircraft orders, which jumped 75.5 percent after two months of dismal results related to issues with Boeing’s […]
In this report, we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar. In fact, at any given time, some are always moving in the opposite direction. The latest value of […]
Most indicators of manufacturing activity are still positive, but if trends continue, growth will become negative by late summer. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and […]
The Producer Price Index, inclusive of all commodities, has been relatively stable in 2019. In the last 12 months the prices of cold-rolled steel sheet and aluminum have declined in unison, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data performed by Steel market Update. This report is intended to provide subscribers with a […]
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace from mid-May through early July, although manufacturing production was generally flat, reported the Federal Reserve in its July 17 Beige Book. The Fed’s periodic survey of the market found businesses have a generally positive outlook for the coming months, with expectations of continued modest growth despite […]
Manufacturing conditions improved in New York State in July, says the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index rebounded from contraction to gain 13 points and register 4.3. Shipments increased during the month while new orders were essentially flat. Indices for unfilled orders and inventories moved lower […]
The United Steelworkers have a new leader as of today. Thomas M. Conway was installed as the eighth international president, replacing Leo Gerard, who has retired. “I’ve known Tom for 25 years. He’s earned my admiration, demonstrating a special toughness and a willingness to take on the most difficult jobs and negotiations,” Gerard said. “He […]
The rate of job creation in the U.S. in 2019 is slowing, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The recent employment reports provide mixed signals. Job openings are high, unemployment is low, but the rate of job creation is slowing. This is probably due to […]
In the last 12 months the rate of job creation in the primary metals industries has been slower than in manufacturing as a whole, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In June, 191,000 jobs were created in the private sector and government gained 33,000 positions. Table 1 breaks […]
Demand for long products is very strong, driven by the construction industry. Demand for sheet products is declining. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and imports/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply […]
Commerce Department data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the AISI and MSCI is most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on manufacturing inventories, shipments and new orders for total U.S. manufacturing […]
Manufacturing technology orders in May rose 7.3 percent from April to $378.4 million. The Association for Manufacturing Technology reported orders for metal cutting technologies increased 4.5 percent from the previous month while orders for forming and fabricating jumped 64.8 percent. Total orders fell almost 22 percent from May 2018. Orders for the first five months […]
It has been some time since we shared comments from one of our trading friends located in China. There have been significant changes in the Chinese steel industry, and the U.S. tariffs on China are having an impact, according to our source. Here is what he had to say: “The Chinese market has not flexed […]
Steel prices dominated the industry headlines in June, falling between $60 and $85 per ton depending on the product, or roughly 10 percent. Steel Market Update received reports of deals on hot rolled steel below $500 per ton. The mills also made headlines late in the month with their announcement of a $40 per ton […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 51.7 percent in June from 52.1 percent in May, its lowest reading since October 2016. The headline PMI has been softening since September 2018, noted Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Softening this month was primarily due to demand and inputs […]
Global manufacturing contracted in June with manufacturing indices falling as trade tensions and tariffs impacted business conditions. At 49.4, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI contracted to its lowest rate in six-and-a-half years. International trade continued to weaken with export orders falling for the tenth consecutive month. The majority of countries in the June survey […]