Members of the Precision Metalforming Association are expecting continued strong business conditions during the next three months. The monthly survey of 115 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada indicates economic activity will be steady with a slight increase in incoming orders. Average daily shipping levels were improved in February with 38 percent of participants […]
As the month of February comes to a close our SMU Price Momentum Indicator reverted to “Higher” from “Neutral.” However, we should be aware that the vast majority of the month saw our Price Momentum Indicator at “Neutral.” The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continued to show strength both as single data points as well […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The February report made up the January decline and then some, the three month moving average (3MMA) has improved for nine consecutive months and was the strongest […]
The February Chicago Business Barometer reached its highest reading since January 2016. The Barometer rose 7.1 points to 57.4 buoyed by optimism and gains in new orders and production. Four of the five components of the Barometer increased in February. New orders rose 10.1 points after slipping below the 50 neutral mark in January. Production […]
The World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement went into effect on February 22, 2017. The agreement seeks to reduce the “red tape” for traders involved in moving goods across borders. The agreement, as summarized by the WTO, includes “improvements to the availability and publication of information about cross-border procedures and practices, improved appeal rights for […]
Durable goods orders grew 1.8 percent in January, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The increase was due mostly to a jump in orders for commercial and military aircraft, up 70 percent and 60 percent, respectively. Core capital goods (non-military goods excluding aircraft) fell 0.4 percent after a larger than expected gain of […]
This report summarized seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the US. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the same direction but our intention in summarizing them […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated February 17th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.963 on January 3rd which was the […]
Market segments tend to run in cycles and rarely are all segments clicking at the same time. A good example is during the Great Recession, which crushed most steel consuming market segments, we learned through Priefert Manufacturing that farm, ranch and rodeo equipment were quite strong. As the economy improved cycles shifted and over the […]
The Architecture Billings Index slipped into negative territory in January with a score of 49.5, down from 55.6 in December. A score above 50 indicates an increase in billings. The new projects inquiry rose to 60.0 from 57.6. “This small decrease in activity, taking into consideration strong readings in project inquiries and new design contracts, […]
Tenth District manufacturing expanded in February achieving its highest index reading since June 2011, said the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The month over month composite manufacturing index was at 14 in February after registering 9 in January and December. New orders, order backlog and employment indexes were higher in February, while production and […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through December 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, recently released its Economic and Steel Market Outlook report for 2017-2018. The Association is expecting steel demand to continue its recovery in 2017 and 2018 but is concerned about the rise of unfairly traded imports. Apparent steel consumption stabilized in the second half of 2016 after rising 3 percent year […]
Manufacturers in New York State are experiencing steady growth, according to the February 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline index for general business conditions rose 12 points to its highest level in more than two years at a reading of 18.7. Indexes for new orders and shipments saw robust gains in February, rising to […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January employment data on Friday and introduced five years of revisions. In January the preliminary result for net job creation was 227,000. November was revised down by 40,000 and December revised up by 1,000. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result for January was 183,000 up […]
WASHINGTON, D.C., Feb. 6, 2017 – The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Board of Directors has approved a public policy agenda outlining the Institute’s aggressive pro-manufacturing policy strategies to guide advocacy for the upcoming year and highlight importance of the steel industry to the success of the American economy. “The impact public policies have […]
The following article was originally published by Daniel Pearson, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute on January 18, 2017. Mr. Pearson will be one of our speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference: Wilbur Ross has accomplished impressive business turnarounds during his career. His efforts in the steel, textile and automotive parts industries demonstrate […]
The ISM Report on Business indicates expansion of economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector and a 92nd month of growth for the overall economy. The Institute for Supply Management report showed the January manufacturing PMI at 56 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from December. Almost all of the components of the PMI […]
The JP Morgan Global PMI remained steady at 52.7 in January. Global manufacturing production increased for the fifty-first consecutive month according to data collected IHS Markit. Faster expansion was noted in the US, Eurozone and UK. Manufacturing expansion slowed in Japan in January and contraction was registered in South Korea, Brazil, Turkey and Greece. At […]
The Precision Metalforming Association reports members are expecting strong business conditions through the first quarter of 2017. The Business Conditions Report for January sampled 115 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada. The report showed 48 percent of participants expect business activity to improve in the next three months, compared to 43 percent in December’s […]
Today is the last day in the month of January 2017. The following is our monthly review of key data collected by Steel Market Update during the month including a number of our own proprietary indices and indicators. SMU Price Momentum is ending the month pointing toward higher prices ahead. We do admit that there […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The January report indicated a small decline from December but the three month moving average (3MMA) was the strongest since August 2001. Consumer confidence is the driver […]
The Chicago Business Barometer lost 3.6 points in January, registering 50.3 from a revised 53.9 in December. The Barometer was at its lowest level since May 2016, after a strong fourth quarter averaging 54.3, said MNI Indicators. New orders fell by 7.8 points dipping into contraction and dragging down the composite index. Production fell 2.3 […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated January 20th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.9627 on January 3rd which was the […]
The headline report of GDP growth in Q4 came in at 1.88 percent a decline from 3.53 percent in the third quarter. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and in the first estimate of Q4 was $16.805 trillion. The growth calculation is misleading because it takes the quarter over quarter change and […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds, then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last sixteen quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 10,239,000 and the states reported 10,103,000 a difference of only 0.13 percent. Part of this small […]
Durable goods orders had an unexpected drop in December, falling 0.4 percent from November. Economists at Wall Street Journal had anticipated a 2.3 percent increase in overall orders. Defense related goods drove most of the decline with a 64 percent decrease in orders for defense aircraft. Orders minus transportation increased 0.5 percent. Core goods, nondefense […]
Manufacturers in the Fifth and Tenth Districts were optimistic about future manufacturing growth during the next six months. The Tenth District, under the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, was especially optimistic on future growth. Richmond Fed The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported manufacturing activity strengthened in the Fifth District during January. The composite […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) ended 2016 at a score of 55.9, up from 50.6 in November and growing for the third consecutive month, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. The new projects inquiry index stood at 57.2 in December from 59.5 the previous month. The differing growth pace between […]
Manufacturing activity continued to improve in the Philadelphia area during January and is expected to continue to do so for the next six months, according to the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index for current manufacturing index rose from 19.7 in December to 23.6 in January for […]