I am about to embark on a two-week trip which includes stops in Memphis (and Big River Steel in Arkansas), Las Vegas (FabTech and ASD annual meeting), San Diego and then on to Los Angeles to have Thanksgiving with my daughter and the rest of our family. I will be in the office early tomorrow […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the 17th consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
On Wednesday of this week I participated in the monthly HARDI conference call (see article in tonight’s newsletter). During the call one of the executives from an east coast HVAC wholesaler told the group that he didn’t believe prices could or would move much higher from here. I disagreed with him. One of the justifications […]
On Monday the U.S. Department of Commerce initiated an investigation against China for trying to circumvent antidumping and countervailing duty orders. The DOC was responding to petitions filed by the domestic steel industry on cold rolled. The DOC also initiated an investigation on CORE (corrosion resistant) which SMU will cover in a separate article. There […]
On Monday the U.S. Department of Commerce, responding to petitions from ArcelorMittal, Nucor, US Steel, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics and California Steel, initiated an inquiry of circumvention of the antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) orders against China. The probe will be for hot rolled and cold rolled substrate supplied by China to Vietnam for […]
The Department of Commerce announced on Monday its affirmative preliminary determinations in the antidumping investigations of imports of certain carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length plate (CTL plate) from Austria, Belgium, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. CTL plate is a flat-rolled carbon and alloy steel product that is 4.75 mm or more in […]
We are setting up this issue of Steel Market Update to be published at 11 PM Eastern Time. By then the polls will be closed in most, if not all, of the lower 48 states of the union. We may well know who will be the new President of the United States. Either way, whether […]
Two more days and we will all (I hope) be able to breathe once again. This is the last Sunday before the election here in the United States when we will decide who will be President and, just as important, who will control the House and Senate. The world is watching so I hope that […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the 16th consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
I have had a number of conversations with steel mills and steel buyers regarding when the next flat rolled steel price increase would be announced by the domestic mills? My opinion is the mills will use the new ferrous scrap settlement prices combined with stronger order books as the reasons for going out after perhaps […]
AISI, Washington, D.C. (Oct. 27, 2016) – The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) today submitted comments to the Trade Policy Staff Committee (TPSC) on USTR’s 2017 National Trade Estimate Report (NTE) on Foreign Trade Barriers. This submission marks the fifth year in a row that AISI has documented the foreign trade barriers that distort […]
I want to spend a few moments to discuss an issue that I know is a sore point to the CEO’s at the steel mills. Lourenco Goncalves brought it up in a discussion we had this morning and that is why service centers (and others) do not sign or allow comments made to Steel Market […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is adjusting our Price Momentum Indicator to “Higher” from Neutral. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices in the United States and Canada will move higher over the next 30 to 60 days. There are a number of reasons why we have chosen to make this move now, here […]
The Brazilian Steel Association has requested that the World Trade Organization initiate a “bilateral consultation” with the United States regarding the countervailing duties applied against imports of Brazilian hot and cold-rolled steel. The Association claims that the U.S. Department of Commerce did not take into consideration in their determination of “actionable subsidies” the explanations by […]
The World Trade Organization requires members to inform the organization of any domestic subsidy programs they are providing to industries. The WTO said compliance with the obligation to notify “remains discouraging low.” “As of today, a total of 89 members have not yet made their 2015 new and full subsidy notification, for which the deadline […]
Our next flat rolled steel market trends analysis will not begin until next Monday, November 7th. We will begin our November surveys on the 7th and the 21st of the month. If you would like to be added to our invitee list please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. We currently have about 575 people on […]
With all of the domestic steel mills announcing $30 per ton price increases either late last week or early this week, the industry is waiting to see if there was a surge of orders and how those orders have impacted lead times. Everyone knows if lead times begin to extend then buyers will have no […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the 15th consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
We continue to watch flat rolled steel prices as anytime the mills announce a price increase it takes time to develop the “target” price. You have to remember that there is a range of prices – not everyone was paying $470 per ton for hot rolled coil before the price increase announcements were made. Some […]
Steel Market Update has been reporting flat rolled steel service centers had reached the point of “capitulation” earlier this month. History has shown that when the service centers reach the point of capitulation they tend to support flat rolled steel price increases being made by the domestic steel industry. Essentially, the steel distributors are attempting […]
Last week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported September shipments and inventories for the U.S. flat rolled steel distributors. We have already produced a couple of articles for our Executive and Premium level members regarding the overall numbers. Today we are analyzing the MSCI data using our Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model and […]
On Monday, the U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) announced its affirmative final determinations in the antidumping investigations of imports of circular welded carbon-quality steel pipe from Pakistan, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam, and the countervailing investigation of imports of the same merchandise from Pakistan. The investigations cover welded carbon-quality steel pipe and tube, […]
We have an article about this in tonight’s newsletter as well but I want to make sure that everyone is aware that our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop is being held in Huntsville, Alabama on January 24 & 25, 2017. As part of this workshop we will tour the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) made two market adjustments on Friday afternoon (Friday, October 21st). We have adjusted the range on our hot rolled index to $440 per ton on the low end up to $500 per ton on the high side. Our average is now $470 per ton ($23.50.cwt). This is $10 per ton lower […]
On Friday I got a number of messages from people wanting to know how they can get information about a price increase announcement being made as soon as it comes out (or shortly thereafter). Right now what I try to do when announcements come out is to put it out on my Twitter account (@SMUSteel) […]
We saw a single data point “bounce” this week in both the Current and Future SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes. Does it mean anything significant? In our opinion it is too early to tell. Current Sentiment, which measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in […]
Since Monday of this week Steel Market Update has been conducting a survey of the flat rolled steel market place. During the process SMU probes about a number of key topics of importance to buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel. One of the areas we deem to be very important is the status of […]
The domestic steel mills in North America continue to be willing to negotiate spot steel prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products according to those responding to this week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends survey. It has now been a number of months since the mills were last in a […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the 14th consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
One of my habits when writing this newsletter is to hold my Final Thoughts until after the vast majority if not the entire newsletter is complete. At that point I try to absorb what has transpired through the day and many times that day flows well into the evening. I think this is one of […]