Most respondents to SMU’s latest survey think that hot-rolled coil prices will be below $1,000 per ton ($50 per cwt) two months from now. That’s a big change from earlier this month, when we did our last full survey and when those who thoughts tags would dip below the $1,000-per-ton threshold this summer were in […]
On July 5th I will celebrate the 45th anniversary of when I first joined the steel industry. I never intended on joining the industry after I left college. It was the love of a woman, and a broken heart that led me to the door of Seymour Waldman and Rolled Steel Corporation in Skokie, Ill., […]
Tariffs on China have been controversial from the beginning. Passions run high, and it’s sometimes hard to find a middle ground on policy matters concerning China. The tariffs at issue are those imposed on Chinese goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended. Over the next few months, the Biden administration […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index fell 11 points to an 18-month low last week, the largest survey-to-survey decline since April 2020. Our Future Sentiment Index also declined significantly last week, following another large decline four weeks prior. SMU surveys steel buyers every other week and asks how they view their chances of success […]
I mentioned in my last Final Thoughts that you should keep your eyes open for potential catalysts for higher prices even amid all the signs that tags probably have nowhere to go but lower. It turned out we found one hiding in plain sight. It’s contract talk season in the US, with labor pacts between […]
Steel Market Update’s latest market check revealed that steel mill lead times continue to inch down for sheet and plate products as they move closer to historical norms. On average, lead times declined by 0.2 weeks compared to our early June figures and are down 0.4 weeks compared to one month ago. Lead times over […]
Approximately 84% of steel buyers report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order, according to executives polled in our latest steel market survey. The rate of willingness to negotiate has remained over 50% in each of our market checks since early May and is now at the highest level since early […]
I’m running out of ways to write about steel prices going down because I’ve been doing it since late April. There are the usual reasons plus a few new ones. There had been hopes that China would come out of Covid lockdowns, that Beijing would roll out stimulus, and that Asian HRC prices would set […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, June 29, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook for steel prices, raw materials costs, […]
The 2022 SMU Steel Summit Conference, which will be held at the Georgia International Convention Center in Atlanta, is just 63 days away. The dates for this year’s conference are Aug. 22-24. We begin with a pre-Summit program at 9 a.m on Aug. 22. The official start of the conference will be at 1 p.m. The […]
The World Trade Organization just concluded its 12th Ministerial Conference since the launch of the ill-fated Doha Development Agenda in 2001. The conference stayed in session past its scheduled end, and it reached agreements that surprised many WTO observers. A lot of credit goes to WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala of Nigeria, who kept the ministers […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is please to share this abbreviated Premium content with our Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. If you are part of a service center company and interested in becoming a data provider, please contact Estelle.Tran@CRUGroup.com. Flat Rolled = 54.7 Shipping Days of Supply […]
There have been some interesting developments in the plate market lately if you’ve been paying close attention. Let’s start with Nucor’s price decrease on cut-to-length (CTL) plate. For starters, let’s be clear that it’s only CTL prices that were dropped. Prices for discrete plate are unchanged. First, a little background. CTL plate refers to material […]
Despite inflation, rising interest rates, and faltering equities markets, the outlook is not all doom and gloom when it comes to the metals markets, says Rick Marabito, CEO of service center group Olympic Steel. In fact, the outlook for demand and consolidation is actually quite good, he told attendees of this week’s Steel Market Update […]
Flat Rolled = 54.7 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 55.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat rolled inventories rose in May as many service centers reported signs of slowing demand. At the end of May, service centers carried 54.7 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, according to SMU […]
Sheet prices are falling at the fastest clip we’ve seen since before the war in Ukraine. Let’s call it the great rewind. But where are we rewinding to – earlier this year or 2019, the last “normal” market we had before the disruptions caused by the pandemic and the war? First come context: SMU’s average […]
Olympic Steel CEO Rick Marabito will be the featured speaker on our SMU Community Chat on Wednesday at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free. A recording of it is free only to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about why the sky is not falling even though carbon prices and futures are softening. […]
A growing number of steel market participants think that hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices will fall below $1,000 per ton ($50 per cwt). An increasing number also think that prices won’t hit bottom until the third quarter at the earliest. Check out the charts below. SMU’s HRC price was at $1,190 per ton ($59.50 per cwt) […]
Steel Market Update just conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market surveys. The data collected consisted of responses from service centers (46% of respondents), manufacturing companies (32%), steel mills (10%), trading companies (8%), suppliers to the steel industry (4%), and toll processors (2%). We intentionally weight the number toward distributors and manufacturing […]
Steel Market Update just conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market surveys. The data collected consisted of responses from service centers (46% of respondents), manufacturing companies (32%), steel mills (10%), trading companies (8%), suppliers to the steel industry (4%), and toll processors (2%). We intentionally weight the number toward distributors and manufacturing […]
Antidumping and countervailing duty (“trade remedy”) cases provide a rare glimpse into tariffs on imported goods that entered the US before they were subject to these burdensome duties. In the opinion of some, retroactively applied tariffs are always unfair to importers and their downstream US customers. Others disagree, believing that they deter imports competing with […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index remained unchanged last week, holding steady at the third-lowest level seen in the past 13 months. Our Future Sentiment Index also remains unchanged compared to our late-May reading (which was the largest survey-to-survey decline since March 2020). SMU surveys steel buyers every other week and asks how they view their chances of success […]
Mills are struggling to fill July order books, and some might still have room in June – that’s the feedback we’re getting from market participants and in our survey. You can check the full details in Brett Linton’s writeup of our latest lead time figures. One consequence of slipping lead times: We’re hearing from more […]
Steel Market Update’s latest market check indicates steel mill lead times continue to decline for sheet products as they move closer to historical norms. Plate lead times have been relatively flat since mid-May. Lead times over the past two weeks have been roughly in line with what we were seeing in the early weeks of […]
Three out of four buyers report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order, according to executives polled in our latest steel market survey. Mills’ willingness to negotiate has remained over 50% in each of our market checks over the last four weeks. Every other week, SMU asks survey respondents: Are you […]
May was a good month for market participants surveyed by SMU, most of whom reported meeting or beating expectations then. Approximately 55% of survey respondents said they met their business forecasts last month, 25% said they exceeded them, and only 20% said they missed forecast. The big question will be June, which has seen steel price […]
The big news of the day is that hot-rolled coil prices slipped below $1,200 per ton ($60 per cwt) for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war. The big question remains how far they’ll fall and how fast. There are no immediate signs of what might stop the declines. The Detroit-area scrap […]
Olympic Steel CEO Rick Marabito will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, June 15, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free. A recording of it is free only to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about why the sky is not falling even though carbon prices and […]
SMU updates its prices every Tuesday evening, and all indications are that prices could be in for a significant adjustment downward this week. This time last year, big orders at times had to pay a premium over small orders because the market was so tight and because prices were shooting up so fast. That’s no longer […]
The Biden administration, picking up where the “America First” Trump administration left off, extols the virtues of increased production here at home. There are many advantages to this approach, the president says. Increased production in the US will diminish reliance on China in critical materials for electric vehicles (rare earth metals and lithium, for example). […]