I want to give a shoutout to the North American Steel Alliance (NASA) for giving me the opportunity to provide a keynote address at their Forecast Conference in Chicago earlier this week. And I want to take a minute to dive deeper into SMU’s lead time figures, one of the indicators I highlighted at the event as […]
Don’t look now but sheet price erosion continues, with tags across all flat-rolled products inching lower this week, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. For some time now we’ve been trying to gauge SMU survey respondents’ sentiment and their sense of market direction by asking when they think HRC prices will bottom out […]
The news about AD/CVD orders being removed from Brazil on Friday was notable in that it bucked, in a small way, the trend toward regionalism and protectionism that we’ve seen growing since at least 2014. I noted in my initial writeup – as did Lewis Leibowitz in his deeper dive – that the market impact […]
Well, earnings season is now well underway. We’ve seen the early reporters like steel processor Worthington Steel (who announced it will be splitting off its steel segment and creating two separate, publicly traded businesses), as well as tube producer Webco, and steel and metal manufacturer Commercial Metals Co. all report strong results in their latest earnings. […]
What a difference a week can make. The lack of clarity in the short-to-medium-term direction presently in steel seems to be stumping maybe even the best and the brightest of flat-rolled buyers. And perhaps as Michael Cowden indicated in SMU’s prior Final Thoughts, the steel market might be somewhere in the middle — in-between bearish […]
I made a contrarian case for optimism in my last Final Thoughts. Our latest survey results indicate I was more contrarian than I realized. For starters, there has been speculation in both the physical and futures markets that a strike or lockout at US Steel could catch buyers off guard and send prices spiraling upward. […]
Time for a contrarian, optimistic thought experiment. First the bad news: Sentiment is increasingly bearish on months of falling steel and scrap prices, nearly all respondents to our latest survey report that mills are willing to negotiate lower still, and flattish lead times provide paltry evidence for a rebound. A quick check of the headlines […]
On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report card on the US economy’s performance with its September jobs report. The results, though surprisingly upbeat, point to potentially more troublesome days ahead, both personally and collectively for the steel industry. So here are just a few thoughts to ponder as October nears […]
We’ve spilled a lot of ink over labor contract talks between US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union. That issue is no doubt important. But here are two more that are just as important, if not more so. And you should have both on your radar as you start this week. First is the […]
Sheet pricing continues to grind lower and contract negotiations drag on. Let’s first look at why prices have been slipping and think about a few theories as to who or what the culprit might be. Spot Market Dynamics I’ve heard from buyers in the Midwest that discounts for large-volume orders negotiated by an integrated producer […]
The ongoing trend for steel sheet prices has remained mostly flat over the past several weeks, and this week was really no exception. We’ve seen a tightening of spreads between hot-rolled coil prices and those for cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume. And the trend of narrowing spreads is even more pronounced when it comes to plate. […]
Our latest survey results are decidedly mixed. Lead times (like prices) continue to move modestly lower. You can find reasons to support your case in the latest data whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist. Let’s take the case for optimism first. Most survey respondents expect lead times to flatten out soon. Some even expect […]
Our most recent lead time data is flashing a clear warning signal when it comes to plate prices, and so too are plate prices abroad – which in theory offer massive discounts to domestic numbers. Let’s start with plate lead times, which we released today along with lead time figures for sheet products. Plate lead […]
Sheet prices are flattish, with hot-rolled coil averaging approximately $750-800 per ton ($37.50-40 per cwt) for the last month. Should we start talking about mini-cycles within a new, higher normal? Or should we assume that prices will continue to resume their downward trek until we see the typical rebound in Q1 of the New Year? […]
We’ve seen a wave of mill idlings and outages this fall. But steel buyer reaction to date has been subdued. The yawn now in response to all those tons coming out of the market stands in stark contrast to the almost hysterical reaction to downtime at even the smallest producers in early 2021. Remember the […]
Well, I guess it’s the official outage and idling season. In the month of September alone we’ve confirmed a half dozen or more maintenance outages (some pulled forward) and temporary idlings. Why? It sure looks like some steelmakers are trying to deal with declining demand and uncertain market conditions. The hope? Somewhat of a stopgap measure […]
It’s contract negotiation season, and let’s just say that this year is a lot different than the last two years. Mills had pricing power in contract talks in 2020 and in 2021. This year, buyers feel like they have more leverage—and they’re not being shy about pressing mills for lower prices. On the one hand, […]
Has the US steel market reached another downward inflection point? I ask because our survey data has turned a little bearish following an upsurge in sentiment that, in retrospect, might have crested not long after Steel Summit. It wouldn’t be the first time that we saw post-conference euphoria in late August fizzle out in September. Last […]
Since this is my first time officially tackling Final Thoughts, I figured what better time than now to take a few moments and formally introduce myself. Even though you’ve been reading Premium and Executive content that I’ve authored here for SMU for a little over two years, my experience in the metals and mining industry—primarily […]
The long, hot summer of labor unrest that I’d feared early this year didn’t materialize. But that doesn’t mean we’re out the woods yet. The United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. have agreed to a new labor pact. In Canada, meanwhile, the USW has ratified agreements with both Algoma and Stelco. But the union and […]
It looks like domestic mills are trying to establish a floor at around $800 per ton ($40 per cwt). They’ve arrived there by different means. And whether they’ll be successful remains to be seen. Suffice it to say that some mills that were very, very aggressive in July and August in the spot market aren’t […]
It’s time to forecast 2023, and I’d like to throw out one radical possibility – or at least one worth thinking about. What if there are no black swans? I know, that possibility is so remote that it’s almost laughable. We haven’t had many normal years since 2018. That year gave us the shock of […]
Will flat-rolled steel prices bounce around roughly where they’ve been for the past few weeks or inflect downward? Our hot-rolled coil price was down a modest $5 per ton today. And HRC prices have been holding roughly between $770-800 per ton since mid-August. How did things stand this time last year? Steel prices popped above […]
I want to end by sharing a story of a ‘C’ high school student. The son of a factory worker and his Welcome Wagon hostess mom. Their home was modest at best. From the time he could remember, his parents encouraged him and his brothers to be the first in their family to go to […]
I was communicating with the head of commercial for one of the domestic steel mills about the recent spate of price announcements and what they have managed to accomplish to date. I was told, “Just another effort to get the momentum back to the other side. Partially successful if you ask me. Stops the erosion. […]
There have been a couple of attempts to move steel prices higher over the past couple of weeks. At the same time, there have been some very large orders taken well below current levels as published by SMU and our CRU parent. The question is are they repeatable? During a conversation on the sidelines of […]
We hosted the greatest conference we have ever held over the past few days. This year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference smashed attendance records with 1,291 registered attendees. This does not include the dozens who networked in the lobbies of the four hotels surrounding the Georgia International Convention Center. It was a wonderful and emotional experience […]
We’ve concluded the second day of our Steel Summit conference in Atlanta, and I thought I’d leave you with five things I learned today. So here they are in no particular order: Say Hello to ADI, Say Goodbye to Section 232 (as we know it) It’s not official yet. But Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) president […]
This is bittersweet. With the 2022 SMU Steel Summit Conference to begin on Monday morning at 9 a.m. and our “official” opening slated for 1 p.m. Monday afternoon, it is time for me to reflect on the conference, and for that matter, my history within the steel industry. For those who are unaware, this will be […]
We’ll kick off our Steel Summit conference in Atlanta in just a few short days. I’m looking forward to learning from executives across the supply chain – from steel mills and service centers to automakers and trucking companies. I’m also looking forward to getting the mood of the room when we do our annual poll […]