As we enter the New Year (goodbye 2020, welcome 2021), you will notice changes to Steel Market Update. One of the very first things you will notice is that our newsletters will have more relevant content in them. This is due to the addition of Michael Cowden who joins us after spending 13 years with […]
2021: A New Year and New Opportunities and Adventures The coming New Year is going to be one for the ages. This year (2020) has been one where our personal, political, and professional lives got mixed together as never before. I am ready for the mundane (politics), for the pandemic to end (personal), and to […]
I received a call earlier today from one of our readers who is also a consultant to companies who purchase flat rolled steel. He mentioned to me that there is some confusion with companies who think our index is the same as CRU, since we are owned by CRU. That belief is ill-advised and flat […]
Tomorrow (Monday, Dec. 21) will be the winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, the shortest day of the year (darkest day of the year). With the pandemic raging, and the government breaking out two vaccines to treat COVID-19, the hope is that as the daylight gets longer the pandemic will begin to fade away. For […]
With hot rolled steel fast approaching $1,000 a ton, it’s only a matter of time before prices begin to cut into demand. Some SMU sources already report early signs of a demand shift. Others are less concerned about the volume of orders than about where they will get the steel to fill them if supplies […]
We are quickly moving to the end of 2020, and I am sure many of you cannot wait to put this year in the rearview mirror. I think we all want our lives back. I was texting with someone in the steel industry who had a different perspective, and maybe now is a good time […]
Let’s play “fun facts.” Last week Steel Market Update published our average hot rolled spot price as $885 per ton ($44.25/cwt). With the domestic steel mills asking $900-$960 per ton for new orders of spot (if they are offering at all, which is a separate issue all by itself) SMU expects HRC spot prices to […]
Steel supplies are so tight these days that $1,000 hot rolled is not out of the question. Which makes predictions of a coming “Steelmageddon” seem that much harder to believe. In fact, 60 percent of the service center and manufacturing executives who responded to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week do not view Steelmageddon as […]
On Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, I will be an instructor at our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making and Market Fundamentals Workshop. We have a full class with a mixture of steel service centers, manufacturing companies, steel mills, traders, analysts, and suppliers to the industry. I am looking forwarding to discussing supply, demand, […]
Yesterday (Wednesday, Dec. 2) we hosted one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars. The guest speaker was Josh Spoores, Principal Analyst and editor of the Sheet Monitor for CRU. I thought it was one of the best presentations and discussions we have ever had at one of our webinars. You can see a recording and […]
It is Tuesday, Dec, 1, 2020, and the U.S. has just returned from Thanksgiving. I hope everyone enjoyed their long weekend and did what was necessary to remain safe as we wait for the COVID-19 vaccines to be distributed around the world. There is a light at the end of this long journey we have […]
“Market’s great if you have supply.” I was speaking with a service center this afternoon who told me on Monday of this week they were selling spot hot rolled out of inventory at $840 per ton. Then Nucor raised their spot HRC number for February to $840 per ton. Today, all items through this service […]
The thought of a possible steel shortage gained new ground this past week as news of spreading coronavirus infections at ArcelorMittal Burns Harbor, the breakout at the No. 2 caster at Dofasco, the slow return of production at Stelco due to a hack of their computer systems, and the continued strike at the NLMK USA […]
I am hearing the U.S. Steel Gary Works #4 blast furnace will be coming back up by the end of this year. According to AIST, the #4 furnace is rated at 1,390,000 tons of pig iron annually. So, this means we will have more supply added from USS and from Big River Steel as they […]
The Perfect Storm: Long lead times, late deliveries, low service center inventories, strong demand, higher prices, lack of foreign steel imports, mill outages both planned and unplanned, maximum capacity utilization rates at a number of mills, NLMK USA strike, higher ferrous scrap prices that are expected to go much higher in the coming months, restrictions […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are feeling a little skittish. Based on the results of last week’s flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis conducted by Steel Market Update, the threat of higher prices, late mill deliveries and fear of a possible steel shortage situation are making steel buyers nervous (see article above with survey […]
The SMU Steel Price Momentum Indicators on all flat rolled and plate steel products are currently pointing toward higher prices over the next 30 days. We expect hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume and steel plate pricing to increase during the coming weeks. The two major reasons for our position are the limitations of supply […]
I am hearing negotiations on 2021 flat rolled contracts are quite contentious. OEM buyers are telling me the domestic mills are so aggressive with their pricing offers that buyers are having to look for alternative suppliers. As one manufacturing buyer put it to me yesterday, “[The steel mills are] effectively asking us to review other […]
My “final thoughts” provide me an opportunity to give my opinions on a wide range of topics. Some are directly steel related and some are not. The question we are all asking ourselves today is what will a Biden administration mean for business? Here are some thoughts I picked up from my reading over the […]
Growing up I was a bit of a history nerd and my original intention was to be a political science major when I entered Hamline University where I went to college. Over time I morphed into a bit of a political nerd, so elections are exciting times for me. They may not be for many […]
For those of us who live in the United States, today should be one where we recognize we have expressed our opinions about politics and politicians with our vote. We recognize the strength of our democracy is rooted in the belief that we are all Americans no matter our political ilk. To believe otherwise only […]
When I look at the results of our flat rolled survey, sometimes I have to scratch my head. In the survey we just completed last week, we asked at what point hot rolled prices would peak. Sixty-two percent of our respondents believe prices will peak at $700 or lower. To them I ask, what is […]
Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Election Day – Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020. If you have a mail-in ballot, it is now too late to put in the mail. You will need to personally drop the ballot off at a collection box. If you can vote early, I would highly recommend it (I voted last week in […]
We had a good conference call with HARDI wholesalers this morning. The dealers who service the mechanical contractors with galvanized sheet and coils continue to be busy. They are surprised at the steepness of the cost curve, and they are beginning to be wary of paying too high a price. One reason they are wary is […]
Nine days to go… I don’t know about you but my cell phone is being lit up with political calls/texts from both parties – including states I don’t live in. November 4th can’t get here fast enough… Steel Dynamics reported that their mills (all products) operated at 85 percent and their sheet mills achieved a […]
COVID-19 cases appear to be surging again, and we asked steel buyers to advise if they were seeing any changes to their business due to the new cases. Most reported no impact from the virus, but there were concerns about what government might do if cases continue to rise. No one wants another shutdown of […]
I made a boo-boo when disclosing the date for Dr. Schultz doing one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars. The webinar will be on OCTOBER 28TH, not this Wednesday as was originally advertised. My apologies to those who were looking forward to listening to Dr. Schultz this week. I have information about the webinar a […]
Steel Market Update’s service center inventories data for September shows supplies on hand at very low levels. At the same time, the percentage of inventory on order is at very high levels. That suggests, say some observers, that some service centers may have waited too long to replenish their inventories, then did some panic buying […]
Have you ever attended a wedding and thought to yourself as you looked at the lovely young bride and her much older groom: “How is this going to work?” The marriage of U.S. Steel and Big River Steel is raising some of the same doubts. U.S. Steel announced today that is has exercised its option […]
Welcome to the year that never ends…and the worst part is just beginning. First, the good news. According to the manufacturing and service center executives who made up 82 percent of the respondents to this week’s survey, the steel economy is going to be much improved in 2021 versus what we have seen this year. About […]