Mill lead times, which means the amount of time it takes to receive (or be promised delivery) for a new order placed today, continue to be highly extended. We share our lead time by product graphic every couple of weeks after we conduct our latest market analysis. We also look at lead times from a […]
Foreign or domestic? “More risk buying domestic….” I had some interesting conversations with steel buyers today as I have been trying to gauge the strength of domestic price support, and what will be the catalyst that will turn the tide. One large manufacturing steel buyer with operations around the world told me, “The prices will […]
In Sunday night’s issue of Steel Market Update, I discussed the increase in the days of inventory on order at the service centers. The increase can be attributed to extended lead times, late deliveries and perhaps some double ordering from the distributors’ end-user customers. We saw an increase in the percentage of inventory that is […]
I am going to spend some time discussing Steel Market Update this evening. I started SMU in August 2008 as a one-man show. The company has grown over the years both in size and scope. The sale of the company to CRU has turned out to be a blessing (I think for both companies), and […]
Service centers reported lower shipments during the month of February partially due to the harsh winter weather associated with “Snowmageddon.” Steel Market Update’s proprietary service center inventories and shipments report indicated 42.7 days of flat rolled inventories, which is up from 40 days of supply on hand at the end of January. Plate inventories stood […]
A couple weeks back we were beginning to think the rise in spot prices would soon slow and we were close to a tipping point. We no longer have that opinion due to Snowmageddon, the winter storm that exacerbated the already late deliveries out of multiple steel mills. On top of that, we are seeing […]
Last week, we conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends analyses. Or, to put it another way (that the search engines don’t like), we conducted one of our surveys that we do ever other week. We invited over 500+ market participants, most of whom are steel buyers in the manufacturing and […]
You Can’t See the Forest for the Trees Mill lead times have surged over the past couple of weeks, which I believe is a result of Snowmageddon in Texas and other areas of the Southeast. When you look at our lead time graphics, you need to remember we are gathering data from our flat rolled […]
Tomorrow (Wednesday), we will host one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars with Rick Preckel of Preston Pipe and Michael Cowden of SMU. The two will discuss the energy segment and how higher oil prices will impact oil well drilling, use of line pipe and other OCTG products, and how quickly we may see demand […]
There has been much said about the squeeze on supply of flat rolled and not as much about demand. Demand has been quite good in all sectors except the energy sector, which has been struggling for a couple of years due to prices that went below $40 per barrel. Now we are seeing warning signs […]
Steel prices will likely stay elevated until supplies catch up with demand, say the experts, so is there enough foreign steel on the way here to make a difference? Two out of three respondents to a recent SMU survey said foreign offers are very competitive versus domestic prices. With steel prices in the U.S. at […]
“Snowmageddon” did not help. Steel buyers are telling Steel Market Update that last week’s “Snowmageddon,” as one buyer called it, has caused steel orders into the South and South Central sections of the United States to be pushed out an additional one to two weeks. “We’re seeing some adjustments arising out of last week’s weather with […]
It is my opinion the U.S. is entering a “super cycle” that will be good for the steel industry and could well keep steel prices above the historical $600-$650 per ton average on benchmark hot rolled coils. This does not mean prices won’t scale back once more supply comes into the market. I am of […]
Good news for NLMK USA customers as the mill has worked out a tentative agreement with the union at their Farrell, Pa., facility, which will end the strike that goes back to late August. Once back in production, this will help (slightly) with some of the supply issues we have been seeing in the market. […]
Black Swan Events One of the areas I cover when I am teaching my segment of our Steel 101 workshop is Black Swan Events and how they can impact the steel market – especially steel prices. Most of the United States appear to be having a Black Swan Event in the form of unusually cold […]
Some of you may have noticed that we have adjusted our language when it comes to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. At this moment, the momentum indicators for hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume and plate steels are pointing toward higher prices over the near term (next 30 to possibly as far out as 60 […]
Steel Market Update released the final detailed report on service center inventories and shipments to our data providers on Friday. It will be released to our Premium level members tomorrow. I mentioned in Thursday’s Final Thoughts that watching this data is one of the keys to figuring out when the market may get to a […]
Every other week Steel Market Update conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel markets. We invite close to 600 individuals associated with manufacturing, distribution, steel mills, trading companies and suppliers to those industries. We intentionally weight the invitations toward end users and steel distribution companies since they are the largest buyers […]
Stronger longer than many anticipated…. An interesting comment from a couple of service centers today, one in the South and another in the Midwest. These two companies agree that the last $100 to $150 per ton in price increases are from panicked buyers. Once those panic buyers are removed from the market…then what? I have […]
No steel mill earnings report is complete these days without the CEO touting his company’s environmental credentials. Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves said this week that his company is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2030. “We at Cleveland-Cliffs acknowledge that one of the most important issues impacting our planet is climate change. […]
Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts the current price for hot rolled at a new record high of $1,150 per ton ($57.50/cwt). But with increases of just $10 per ton in the last couple weeks, the upward momentum in pricing appears to be slowing. SMU keeps a close eye on the […]
Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts the benchmark price for hot rolled at $1,180 per net ton. The spot market continues to set new highs for the HR price, which in the second week of January topped the old record of $1,070 per ton reported by SMU in 2008. It has […]
It’s impossible to know what the future holds for the steel market in 2021, but our immediate prospects are less uncertain simply because we have a new president. At least we know who will be calling the shots for the next four years. That should help companies anticipate Biden’s major policy decisions—like them or not—so they […]
As prices soar to historical high levels, we are constantly probing, looking for signs of a crack in flat rolled or plate steel prices. Nucor announced higher plate base prices today with discrete plate being referenced at $51.00/cwt ($1,020 per ton). Here are some of the “interesting” comments we received from steel buyers this week: […]
I received a call from Cleveland-Cliffs in response to an inquiry I had made a couple of weeks back regarding the #6 blast furnace at their Cleveland steel mill. Cliffs wanted to make sure I understand as the #6 blast furnace comes back online that it is not to increase production, only to replace the […]
Earlier this week I received a note from one of our readers regarding the plate price index and the changes we recently made to the index (FOB Mill vs. Delivered pricing). We were asked how we are accomplishing this, and how do our members reconcile the historical data that was based on delivered pricing versus […]
“It’s not how much it cost, it’s do I have steel to make my parts…?” That was one of the comments discussed this morning during our HARDI galvanized steel conference call. Some of the mechanical contractors have jobs to complete, and they need steel to finish. However, others are trying to hold back on buying […]
On Wednesday at noon the Biden administration will take over the Executive Branch of the U.S. government. President Biden is planning on hitting the ground running as he works to control the pandemic, put the U.S. back in the Paris Climate Accord, and (unfortunately) deal with a country fractured by Trump insurrectionists. Biden has made […]
I anticipate next week’s spot hot rolled and other flat rolled steel prices will be higher than what we reported on Tuesday evening (HRC = $1,080 per ton average). We received information from an end user today of hot rolled purchases of $1,140 per ton for end of March/early April production. An order for HR […]
The runup in steel prices continues unabated with benchmark hot rolled prices now averaging $1,080 per ton. The $1,080 number on hot rolled is the highest in our history (we reported $1,070 back in July 2008). Steel buyers should note that even as we bust through our past record high, we believe prices will still […]