World Trade Organization Director-General Roberto Azevêdo announced he will step down from his second term one year early, on Aug. 31. Azevêdo called it a “family decision.” “It is not health-related (thank goodness). Nor am I pursuing any political opportunities,” he added. Stepping down now will avoid creating complications ahead of preparations for the MC12 […]
Bank of America is forecasting a slow recovery from the coronavirus crisis, one that will take years not just months, said Metals and Mining Analyst Timna Tanners, who was the featured guest speaker during Steel Market Update’s Community Chat on Wednesday. Bank of America economists anticipate a global recession in the second and third quarters. […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Many are still discussing what type of recession will ensue following the Covid-19 pandemic. Will it be U-, V- or L-shaped? Different people may refer to the same shape to mean different outcomes. To bring clarity to this issue, this insight sets out […]
Note: SMU produced an in-depth Energy Analysis for our Premium members on Monday, May 4, that covered the U.S. rig count information below, as well as oil and gas prices, drilling rigs by state and crude oil stock levels. If you would like to trial our Premium product, contact Paige Mayhair at Paige.Mayhair@crugroup.com. Active U.S. […]
By CRU Managing Consultant Ben Jones, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Understanding the shape and nature of the Covid-19 cycle will be critical to commercial success, and in some cases, survival of many industry players. Traditional thinking about pathways back to normality (e.g. V, U, W, L shaped recoveries) ignores the potential for […]
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes in energy supply and demand patterns. Because those changes are still evolving, the outlook is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty. What is certain is that crude oil prices have fallen significantly since the beginning of […]
The COVID-19 crisis devastated manufacturing across the globe in April. The pandemic laid low virtually all economies, plunging the J.P. Morgan Global PMI to 39.8 for the steepest contraction since the financial crisis of 2008/2009. China, although still in contraction, fared the best of the nations surveyed and helped to soften the downturn. Excluding China, […]
Having lived through the difficult month of April, steel buyers remain pessimistic about current business conditions, but more hopeful about the future. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their company’s current prospects for success, as well as their chances for success three to six months in the future. The Current Sentiment reading […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Lockdowns continued into April. They resulted in a fall in activity, particularly in the hospitality, entertainment and travel sectors. Using estimates of the loss of output by sector, we find that one month of lockdown lowers the […]
The ISM Report on Business dropped 7.6 percentage points to a PMI reading of 41.5 in April, indicating a sharp contraction of economic activity in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the overall economy contracted for the first time in 131 consecutive months. “Comments from the panel were strongly negative (three negative comments for every one positive […]
Both steel and scrap prices decreased in the month of April, down anywhere from $15 to $75 per ton between each product, as the effects of the coronavirus shutdowns impacted the market. SMU Buyers Sentiment Index readings showed significant declines over March, with Current Sentiment sliding into negative territory and reaching a low of -8, […]
Timna Tanners, metals and mining analyst for Bank of America, will be the guest speaker for the next SMU Community Chat, beginning at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May 6. Tanners raised eyebrows last year with her prediction that the mills’ many planned capacity additions would oversupply the market in the next few years and […]
Timna Tanners, metals and mining analyst for Bank of America, will be the guest speaker for the next SMU Community Chat, beginning at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May 6. Tanners raised eyebrows last year with her prediction that the mills’ many planned capacity additions would oversupply the market in the next few years and […]
Today, Steel Market Update adjusted our flat rolled Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. We are of the opinion, based on intelligence we are gleaning from steel buyers, that steel prices are in transition. We no longer believe prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume will decline over the next 30 days. However, a […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steels declined sharply in April. Lead times ranged from a half-week to a full week shorter at the end of the month than they did at the beginning, depending on the product, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update began canvassing the markets as we conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends suveys. The vast majority of the responses were received early in the week and the results of those responses are presented below. However, SMU continued to speak directly to both […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped to its lowest level since the recession in March 2009. The April PMI plummeted 12.4 points to 35.4, said MNI Indicators. New orders and production recorded the steepest declines, falling 21 points and 19 points, respectively. The order backlogs index eased 7.4 percent after reporting gains in February and March. […]
Steps to contain the spread of COVID-19 have dealt a serious blow to construction, which is the largest market for steel. Construction will be the focus of this week’s SMU Community Chat. Two out of three construction executives responding to an April 20-23 survey by the Associated General Contractors of America reported that they are […]
Durable goods orders plummeted 14.4 percent in March to $213.2 billion, said the U.S. Census Bureau in its latest report. The decrease followed three consecutive months of increase and was the largest monthly decline since August 2014. Transportation equipment led the decrease in March falling 41 percent to $51.2 billion. Commercial aircraft and parts plunged […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Justin Hughes and Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The international oil markets have been under severe pressure since the outbreak of Covid-19 with the rapid destruction of crude oil and oil product demand. Despite attempts for coordinated supply-side action by major oil producing nations, including […]
Companies are being affected to varying degrees by the coronavirus depending on their market and geography, so it’s no surprise their opinions range widely on how long it will take business to return to pre-COVID levels. Some hope for activity to rebound as soon as this summer, while others fear it won’t be until next […]
The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly taken a toll on American lives and the economy. The first case of the disease in the U.S. was reported 88 days ago on Jan. 22. As of April 21, there have been 784,326 reported infections and 42,094 deaths. The toll on the U.S. economy has been devastating. Stay-at-home orders […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment remained in pessimistic territory in mid-April as steel demand was stifled by the government restrictions on commerce to control the spread of COVID-19. Future Buyers Sentiment was notably more optimistic, however, which suggests service center and manufacturing executives anticipate better days ahead. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their […]
Last week, Steel Market Update conducted an analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel markets as we reached out to more than 500 individuals uniquely qualified to provide insights into these markets. What we found is an almost universal picture of a steel economy in a tailspin. Through our steel survey, SMU has seen […]
Last week, Steel Market Update conducted an analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel markets as we reached out to more than 500 individuals uniquely qualified to provide insights into these markets. What we found is an almost universal picture of a steel economy in a tailspin. Through our steel survey, SMU has seen […]
If not for the pandemic, SMU would be calling the service centers as being at a point of capitulation. Our expectation would be for the steel mills to announce price increases in the near future. If not for the pandemic. We have seen both manufacturing companies and service centers reporting spot prices out of the […]
Economic activity contracted “sharply and abruptly” last month, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report. The report, covering activity through April 6, showed leisure and hospitality industries bearing the brunt of the decline. “All Districts reported highly uncertain outlooks among business contacts, with most expecting conditions to worsen in the next several months,” said […]
Active U.S. and Canadian drill rigs continued to decline this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 73 to 529, with oil […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate have continued to shorten despite the mills’ efforts so far to curtail production and match supply with demand. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill. Average lead times for […]
It’s a buyer’s market with many buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for federal and state officials to declare the coast is clear and open up the economy once again. Not surprisingly, steel mills are very willing to negotiate to secure orders in the current low-demand environment. More than nine out of 10 buyers responding […]