The official economic statistics out of China show a decline in GDP to a level slightly lower than the depths of the global recession in 2009. China’s share of global steel production was 55.9 percent in August. Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed […]
Crude oil prices have returned to the levels prior to the attack on the Saudi Aramco Abqaiq crude oil processing facility on Sept. 14. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., exceeded $60 per barrel for one day on Sept. 16 when it reached $63.10 before falling back to $52.76 on […]
Based on Steel Market Update’s analysis of 10 indicators, U.S. manufacturing output is now contracting and articles manufactured from iron and steel are down by 6.1 percent year over year. This report summarizes 10 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. In data released in […]
Economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace across most of the U.S. in September and early October. Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts in the South and West were generally more upbeat than the Midwest and Great Plains, according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity edged lower as firms cited persistent […]
Except for a brief uptick this summer, steel prices have been on the decline since March and breached the $500 per ton level in mid-October—a psychological line in the sand that leaves steel buyers wondering: Have prices hit bottom? Is it time to replenish inventories? Flat rolled steel prices took a steep dive last month, […]
The World Steel Association is relatively bullish on steel demand in its October Short Range Outlook despite global economic challenges. Global steel demand will grow by 3.9 percent to 1,775.0 million metric tons in 2019 and will grow by another 1.7 percent in 2020, reaching 1,805.7 million metric tons. Steel demand in China is expected […]
The U.S and Canada active rig count declined again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 5 to 851, with oil […]
Except for a brief uptick this summer, steel prices have been on the decline since March and breached the $500 per ton level this month—a psychological line in the sand that leaves steel buyers wondering how much further prices can slide. Steel Market Update estimates the average price for hot rolled is now down to […]
Steel Market Update has to admit 2019 has been an unusual year as we have seen two “dead cat bounces” already and we may be about to live through a third in the coming weeks. Why do we believe flat rolled prices are about to reverse course? Because of the data we have been gathering […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of September: Flat Rolled = 49.9 Shipping Days of Supply Plate Steels = 52.1 Shipping Days of Supply (48.2 adjusted) Flat Rolled Service center inventories of flat-rolled steel dropped significantly in September, which the decrease in on-order volumes in August […]
Demand for sheet products spiked to over five million tons in August for the first time since August last year, though flat rolled demand remains tepid. Construction expenditures are softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment […]
Business activity in New York State grew slightly in October but was generally sluggish. The October 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index gained two points to register 4.0. The new orders index was unchanged at 3.5, indicating a slight Improvement. Shipments rose 7 points to 13.0 after falling to a three-year low last month. Unfilled […]
Steel Market Update’s Buyers Sentiment Index declined again this week to its lowest levels since 2013. Both Current and Future Sentiment have been trending steadily downward since April. The Current Sentiment reading of +26 is half the +52 recorded just one month ago and more than 40 points below levels at this time last year. […]
Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week reveals that many buyers are leaning pessimistic about their prospects for the fourth quarter. The majority responding to SMU’s questionnaire expect demand to continue weakening, prices to continue declining and growth to remain flat into the fourth quarter and possibly beyond. Demand SMU asked: At […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share the following Premium content with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. When is the U.S. economy likely to see its next recession? Not anytime soon, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of leading economic indicators, which all appear fairly healthy. Steel demand […]
U.S. steel mills shipped 8,472,088 net tons for the month of August, a 4.4 percent increase from the 8,115,103 net tons shipped in the previous month, July 2019, and a 0.4 percent increase from the 8,441,597 net tons shipped in August 2018, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute in Washington. Shipments year-to-date totaled 64,810,436 […]
More than nine out of 10 steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week agree that mills are willing to negotiate spot prices on all types of steel products to secure orders in the current, difficult market environment. In the hot rolled segment, 96 percent of respondents said the mills were […]
Mill lead times for all flat rolled sheet products continued to see slight shortening over the past month. The average lead time for hot rolled is now down to nearly three and a half weeks, cold rolled is less than five and a half weeks and coated steels are less than six and a half […]
Job creation in September continued at a lackluster pace and the details signal a slowdown in steel consumption. In September, 7,000 jobs were created in construction, while manufacturing industries lost 2,000 jobs. About 114,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while government gained 22,000 positions. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and […]
Census Bureau data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) are most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on […]
The rate of job creation in September slowed to 136,000, but the details of job cuts and job openings continue to be historically very positive, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in September declined to 136,000 from an upwardly revised 168,000 in […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, declined last week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 5 to 855, with oil rigs down 3, gas rigs down 2, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Compared to this time last year, the […]
The American Institute of Architect’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted a score of 47.2 for August indicating a decline in planning activity for nonresidential construction. The national score for new design contracts was also below the neutral point of 50 at 47.9, a rare occurrence for the two scores. Having both indexes in contraction means […]
Primetals Technologies, a leading engineering, plant building and lifecycle services partner for the metals industry, will be solely owned by Mitsubishi-Hitachi Metals Machinery by early next year. MHMM and Siemens AG, joint owners of Primetals, have agreed that MHMM will acquire Siemens’ 49 percent stake in the company for an undisclosed sum. Closing of the […]
September saw big downturns on both steel price momentum and steel buyers sentiment that aren’t readily evident in the monthly data (below) from Steel Market Update. SMU’s Price Momentum Index was pointing downward for the entire month of September. The benchmark price for hot rolled steel averaged $565 per ton for the month, down nearly […]
The September Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed further decline of the manufacturing sector. ISM’s PMI edged down 1.3 points to 47.8 from the August reading of 49.1. “This is the lowest reading since June 2009, the last month of the Great Recession, when the index registered 46.3 percent,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of […]
The net situation changed little from August but the Treasury 10/2 yield spread became slightly positive on Sept. 27 and the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index suffered a serious setback on Sept. 15. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. […]
The global manufacturing sector remains in contraction but is beginning to stabilize, says the latest report from J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row reaching 49.7, although still below the 50 neutral point. “The global manufacturing PMI sent a message of stability in […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September. Month on month, the composite value of the index declined from 134.2 to 125.1. Calculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA) to smooth the monthly volatility, the measure of consumer confidence actually increased slightly from 131.4 to 131.7. This is why […]