The U.S. Department of Commerce will announce their final determination on the hot rolled antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) trade suits against Brazil, Australia, Turkey, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. We will publish an article on our website as soon as we get the results which normally come […]
Auto sale volume for July was mixed, with the largest manufacturers slipping in volume year-over-year and most of the smaller ones gaining by single digit percent but still below analyst estimates. FCA US picked up just 0.3 percent over July 2015, while GM sales dipped 1.9 percent, Ford dropped 3 percent, and Toyota sales decreased […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. It is important to understand the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. The total […]
Scrap trading has been slow to develop in all but the Detroit area mills. The domestic steel mills are trying to reduce the spread between shredded scrap and prime grades of scrap (busheling and bundles) which in some cases has expanded to $70 per gross ton. Scrap guru Michael Marley reported this afternoon that the […]
A note to those of you who are registered for our 6th Steel Summit Conference but have yet to make room reservations. The room block at the Marriott Gateway Hotel (our host hotel) is sold out. The hotel may have a few rooms left but they will most likely be at the full rack rate. […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the second week in a row, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
I have been receiving a large number of calls asking my opinion about steel prices and specifically can steel prices remain at the current levels for an extended period of time. The financial community is convinced that the numbers will come down over the next month to two months and that we will see mid […]
Light vehicle (LV) sales in June were 16.7 million units, down from 17.4 million in May and from 17.0 million in June last year. All sales numbers in this analysis are at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Figure 1 shows the auto and light truck components since January 2004. In June auto sales were 6.8 […]
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes jumped 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 from a revised May total of 572,000, said the Commerce Department on Tuesday. The increase exceeded analyst expectations for a rate of 560,000. Sales for the first half of 2016 were 10.1 percent higher than the same period […]
Home prices continued to rise in May but at a slower pace. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for May shows the 20-city Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 5.2 percent in April, down from 5.4 percent in April. “Home prices continue to appreciate across the country,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and […]
What we like to hear for our member companies: One of the largest service centers in the U.S. told us earlier this week after registering for our Steel Summit Conference, “Our guys tell me your conference is very good, I’m looking forward to attending. Also, several mills tell me that your conference is turning into […]
We pointed out a couple of weeks back that lead times have been slowly shrinking but are still longer than year ago levels. Lead times refer to the amount of time it takes to get an order placed today produced at one of the domestic steel mills. The steel mill lead times we are discussing […]
As lead times begin to come back in (shorten), we are seeing an increase in the percentage of our flat rolled steel survey respondents who are reporting the steel mills as willing to negotiate steel prices. Hot rolled continues to be the weakest product. It has the shortest lead time and we have heard from […]
I don’t know if I have ever seen a market quite like the one we are living through right now. Supply is being constrained through the use of the trade suits coupled with US Steel taking down two blast furnaces at Granite City and AK Steel taking down their lone blast furnace at Ashland. There […]
Since 2008, Steel Market Update has been measuring how steel buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment (which we call “Current Sentiment”). We also probe the same group of manufacturers, steel service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors on how they feel about their […]
The Architecture Billings Index remained positive in June but slipped to 52.6 to 53.1, according to the latest survey by the American institute of Architects. The new projects inquiry index dropped to 58.6 from 60.1 the previous month. Any reading above 50 indicates a growth in design services. “Demand for residential projects has surged this […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States turned negative this week, following a 28 week positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a percentage. A positive […]
The spread between hot rolled and cold rolled/coated steels continues to be at dangerous (my opinion) levels. The U.S. steel industry has been systematically “building a dam” (Lewis Leibowitz words) around this country in order to prevent what they call unfairly subsidized and unfairly traded plate, hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The […]
Housing starts rose 4.8 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,189,000, exceeding analyst expectations for the month. On a year-over-year basis, starts were 2.0 percent lower than the rate of 1,334,000 in June 2015. May’s estimate was revised downward to 1.14 million unit rate from the previously reported 1.16 million units. […]
I want to take a moment to thank my Steel Market Update team that has been working almost 24 hours a day in order to stay on top of the Steel Summit Conference for this year. I am not positive but, I think we will be the second largest steel conference in the U.S. by […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through May 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for May 2016 decreased 13.6 percent […]
We knew it would happen and it has, we learned late on Friday that our room block has been sold out. We are trying to see if there is anything we can do to expand the block and we will be working on that over the next couple of days. However, there is another option […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 28th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a […]
We released our SMU Events App on Tuesday morning. On Wednesday I received a text from one of our registered attendees, “Hey, your app is pretty good John. Is there a quantity discount on additional sign ups?” First, thank you for the vote of confidence. I thought our App went over pretty well last year […]
The Dodge Momentum Index leapt 11.2 percent in June for a reading of 134.4 from the revised May reading of 120.8. Dodge Data & Analytics attributes the jump to a 14.6 percent increase in institutional construction planning and a 7.7 percent increase in commercial planning. Writes Dodge: “The gain in commercial planning reports is a […]
We discovered earlier today that our office phones (including our 800 number) are down and calls are not being transferred or going to voicemail. We are in touch with Comcast to get the issue resolved. Although we understand it is a system wide failure not just our phones. In the meantime, if you need to […]
Flat rolled steel industry participants continue to be optimistic about the markets, according to the recent flat rolled market trends analysis conducted by Steel Market Update. However, we are seeing a slightly less optimistic trend for this time of year compared to what we were reporting at the same point in time in 2014 and […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are not believers that the next move will be for higher flat rolled steel prices over the next couple of months. At least that is what the respondents to our most recent flat rolled steel questionnaire believe. Based on the analysis of last week’s survey, 60 percent of […]
Many of those associated with the steel mills believe this week will be the one where buyers come back to the market after having taken a couple of weeks off for holiday. We will see if the buyers return or if the erosion of scrap prices (at least obsolete grades) will be enough to start […]
Since 2008, Steel Market Update has been measuring how steel buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment (which we call “Current Sentiment”). We also probe the same group of manufacturers, steel service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors on how they feel about their […]