By CRU Cost Economist Ross Cunningham Six months ago, the U.S. surprised the oil market by making a U-turn on its previous decision to impose sanctions on Iranian crude by providing six-month waivers to the eight biggest buyers. These waivers were one of the key reasons leading to oil prices falling by ~30 percent from […]
When I was in Atlanta, the questions on the minds of the members of the Association of Specialty Cold Rolled Steel Producers were connected to trying to get a better handle on this market. The questions were less about the direction of flat rolled prices, but rather why are steel prices tumbling with Section 232 […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
U.S. steel exports in February totaled 599,430 net tons (543,794 metric tons), down 5.8 percent from January and down 25.6 percent from levels one year ago. The total February export figure is above the three-month moving average (3MMA, average of December 2018, January 2019, and February 2019) but below the 12-month moving average (12MMA, average […]
The vast majority of flat rolled and plate steel buyers are reporting to Steel Market Update that prices on all products will be moving at best sideways, with most believing prices will move lower from here. We are seeing pressure on hot rolled, cold rolled and plate prices right now as indexes on these products […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Finally some follow through lower in both steel and scrap futures prices. Should flattish forward curves be a concern? Steel The latest […]
The recent mining accident in Brazil leading to lost production of iron ore at Vale is “shaping up to be a multi-year shortage of iron ore and pellets,” said Cleveland Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves during earnings remarks on Thursday. “The catastrophic events in Brazil have provoked a radical change in the supply-demand dynamics of iron […]
Final February steel import data was recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, putting the total monthly import level at 2.4 million net tons, down 30.1 percent compared to January’s 3.5 million ton high. The February figure is below both the three-month moving average (3MMA) and the 12-month moving average (12MMA). When removing the […]
Steel buyers continue to express concerns about hot rolled, cold rolled and plate steels. We have seen weakness in those products over the past week to two weeks. Galvanized and Galvalume have had more staying power, however buyers are not rushing to fill their inventories at today’s pricing. There is a wait-and-see attitude regarding future […]
Steel mill utilization has declined by a percentage point in the past two weeks but remains near a healthy 82 percent, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute. U.S. raw steel production for the week ending April 20 decreased by 0.6 percent from the previous week to 1,903,000 net tons, while the mill capability utilization […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Demand for steelmaking raw materials has improved in April. Chinese steel prices have jumped on rising seasonal demand, particularly from the construction sector. Steel production in the country has also picked up, as indicated by the blast furnace (BF) utilization rate displayed in CRU’s Coking Coal and Iron Ore Dashboards. This has […]
Flat rolled steel prices saw a little more weakening this week, and steel buyers are concerned that more erosion in prices could be coming in the next few months. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $640-$700 per ton ($32.00/cwt-$35.00/cwt) with an average of $670 per ton […]
Steel mill utilization around 82 to 83 percent appears to be the norm for 2019. U.S. raw steel production for the week ending April 13 decreased by 0.7 percent from the previous week to 1,915,000 net tons, while the mill capability utilization rate inched down a half percentage point to 82.3 percent. The week’s production […]
Updated steel import license data was released Tuesday evening, reporting new March license data up slightly over last week to 2.79 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. These figures would be above the three-month moving average (3MMA, through final January data), but below the 12-month moving average (12MMA). When removing the semi-finished […]
By CRU Analyst Michelle Liu Turkish prices have continued to fall, down $7 /t w/w for the week ending Friday, April 12, to $305 /t CFR for HMS 80:20. Warmer weather has increased supply in the U.S. and Europe, placing downward pressure on scrap prices there. This was compounded by reduced scrap demand on both […]
The Russians are coming—to Kentucky. Russian aluminum producer United Co. Rusal plans to invest $200 million in a $1.7 billion rolling mill being built by start-up company Braidy Industries in Ashland, Ky. The investment will give Rusal a 40 percent stake in the project and a significant presence in the U.S. automotive and aerospace aluminum […]
Total raw steel production for the month of February fell to 7,667,664 net tons, reports the American Iron and Steel Institute in Washington. This is the lowest monthly production level seen since April 2018 when it was 7,630,135 tons. Broken down by production method, 5,305,123 tons (69.2 percent) were produced by electric arc furnaces (EAFs) […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the key short-term impacts on the European steel market are likely to be increased delays for material crossing the UK-EU border as well as modifications to the EU safeguard system. Beyond short-term behavior such as stockpiling, there are possible longer-term effects, perhaps […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
It took a couple of years, dozens of trade suits, a Section 301 investigation, Changes to the Country of Origin, the Section 232 tariffs and finally a pull-back in domestic pricing to dramatically reduce the amount of foreign steel tonnage coming into the U.S. market. This reduction will not be short-lived. It will continue for […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
We saw weakness in a number of the products we index this week. We are not seeing a collapse of the market, and as we discuss in another article in tonight’s issue, there are regional and product differences. The various products are not working in concert right now. We moved our Price Momentum Indicators on […]
A surprising two out of three respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire last week said they are not concerned about the direction of steel prices, at least in the short term, though some question the staying-power of current demand. Steel Market Update asked: “Foreign steel imports are dropping and the domestic mills are […]
U.S. raw steel production for the week ending April 6 increased by 0.8 percent from the previous week to 1,928,000 net tons, while the mill capability utilization rate inched up by about a half percentage point to 82.8 percent. The week’s production represented a 7.9 percent increase from the same period last year, reported the […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released updated import license data on Tuesday evening, with new March license estimates up slightly to 2.76 million tons. These latest figures would be above the three-month moving average (3MMA, through final January data), but below the 12-month moving average (12MMA). When removing the semi-finished (mostly slabs) licenses from the […]
By CRU North America Analyst Ryan McKinley U.S. long product prices have come under downward pressure, driven primarily by persistently high inventory levels. This inventory build-up has been compounded by an increase in import levels in March relative to the prior month, and consistently wet weather in many regions of the U.S. has delayed any […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released license data for foreign steel coming into the United States. Based on the data received and reported through April 2, March imports are expected to come in slightly higher than February at 2.6-2.7 million net tons. When removing the semi-finished (mostly slabs) licenses from the data, the finished steel […]
January apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,902,993 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. This is the highest level seen since March 2018 when apparent supply was 9,935,479 tons. January apparent […]