By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley The rate of decline for U.S. domestic longs product prices is decelerating as steel buyers slowly return to the market and scrap market sentiment firms. Although not low, inventory levels have worked through enough for buyers to re-enter the market and conduct seasonal restocking. Still, domestic prices and demand […]
U.S. steel imports likely totaled around 2.4 million tons in October, near the 12-month average, based on the latest import license data from the Department of Commerce. Imports of semifinished steel approached a million tons as the mills moved to secure slabs in the first month of the fourth quarter. Slab imports, notably from Brazil, […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen We expect world GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year and next; in other words, we expect global growth to be broadly stable at current rates. The story for world industrial production, instead, is one of a mild recovery from 1.4 percent in 2019 to 2.2 percent in […]
The market is just starting to react to the $40 price increase announced by the flat rolled mills late last week, making it a little tricky to settle on the price ranges in this issue of Steel Market Update. Generally speaking, it appears flat rolled prices are leaning upward, though SMU’s Steel Price Momentum Indictor […]
Raw steel output by U.S. mills saw another small increase in the week ending Oct. 26 taking the average mill utilization rate back up over 80 percent of capacity. Production totaled 1,866,000 net tons at a utilization rate of 80.7 percent, up 1.4 percent from the previous week but down 0.6 percent compared with the […]
Steel imports are down significantly this year, the result of trade actions and economic forces, but the import market share is relatively unchanged. Through the first nine months of 2019, the U.S. imported at total of 22.6 million tons of steel, a 13.7 percent decline from the same period in 2018, reports the American Iron […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices have increased slightly overall in the past week despite early gains being met with falling prices at the start of this trading week. On Tuesday, Oct. 29, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $87.0 /t, a $2.0 /t increase w/w. Australian supply has continued […]
Four more mills–Nucor, U.S. Steel, USS-Posco and Algoma Steel–raised prices on their flat rolled products by $40 per ton ($2/cwt) Friday, following on similar announcements by ArcelorMittal and NLMK USA the day before. The mills are hoping to reverse the slide that has taken the benchmark price of hot rolled steel from more than $700 […]
Speculation that steel prices were near the bottom and the mills were contemplating a price increase has proven out as ArcelorMittal and NLMK USA both announced flat rolled price increases today of $40 per ton. Other mills are expected to follow. ArcelorMittal informed its commercial team today that it is raising base prices on light […]
As expected, import licenses for semifinished steel have seen a big jump in October, the first month of the fourth quarter, as domestic mills seek to secure needed slabs ahead of quarterly quota restrictions on imports from Brazil and other nations. Steel Market Update’s forecast of import licenses for the entire month show semifinished imports […]
Weak steel prices and plummeting pellet premiums cut earnings significantly at Cleveland-Cliffs in the third quarter of 2019, but the company still beat analysts’ expectations. Revenues fell to $556 million compared to $742 million a year ago that included a one-time gain of $228 million due to a change in foreign currency translation. Third-quarter net income was […]
Compared to three months ago, all five of the raw materials prices considered in this report declined in October. Compared to September, there was a recovery in the prices of coking coal and zinc. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through Oct. 16 of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month/month, […]
We saw modest movement in hot rolled this week as our survey respondents, both manufacturing and service centers, were consistent in reporting a decrease in the upper end of our range while holding the line at the bottom. As we reviewed the data, the vast majority of buyers were reporting numbers in the $460-$480 range […]
Steel price volatility was persistent in 2019, said CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores at the FMA/ASD Executive Networking Series held in Pittsburgh last week. U.S. economic growth was below the historical trend throughout 2019, but has improved since April, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Activity in two key steel sectors, fabricated metal products and […]
Raw steel output by U.S. mills saw a small increase in the week ending Oct. 19. Production totaled 1,841,000 net tons at a mill utilization rate of 79.6 percent, up 1.1 percent from the previous week but down 1.9 percent compared with the same week last year, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute. Adjusted year-to-date […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain The iron ore price suffered its biggest weekly fall since August as market participants showed caution in the face of bearish signals in China. On Tuesday, Oct. 22, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $85.00 /t, a $6 /t w/w decline. Despite a w/w increase in nationwide BF […]
By CRU Analyst Sam Grant Looking at our North American zinc market forecasts for 2020, there are clear arguments for either a rollover or slight decline in contract premia as we head into negotiations during the final quarter of this year. In this article, we present an overview of the North American refined market fundamentals […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain It is imperative for carbon steel producers to have secure supply of metallurgical coke to ensure stable and efficient operation of their blast furnaces (BF). Steelmakers also benefit from using coke with consistent technical specifications, namely CSR and ash content in their BFs. For these reasons alone it is prudent […]
By John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update The Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been a mirror of the comments made by buyers of flat rolled and plate steel over the past few days. Our Sentiment Index, which measures how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to […]
Flat rolled prices took a steep dive lower this week as benchmark hot rolled dropped below $500 per ton for the first time since early November 2016. The spreads between hot rolled and cold rolled/coated products continue to be close to $200 per ton and even higher for Galvalume. We are collecting a small number […]
Mill capacity utilization by U.S. mills has leveled off in the high 70 percent range. Raw steel production for the week ending Oct. 12 totaled 1,821,000 net tons at a mill utilization rate of 78.7 percent, up 0.9 percent from the previous week but down 3.0 percent compared with the same week last year, reported the […]
August apparent steel supply rose to 9,625,558 net tons, the highest level seen since April of this year, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total […]
February was the first month for the import market share of total steel products, including semifinished, to fall below 20 percent since August 2009. The import share remained below 20 percent through August 2019 when it was 18.4 percent. Our data goes back to January 2003 in which time period the high import share was […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores The North American sheet market has taken a turn for the worse. At a time when sheet demand and prices have already been stunted by a weaker trend of industrial growth and sheet demand, two recent events are only now starting to affect sheet prices: an on-going strike at […]
Preliminary data for the full month of September, based on Commerce Department import licenses, shows that steel imports likely totaled less than 2 million tons last month. This is comparable to the final Census data for August, putting imports for the past two months at well below average. One notable difference in September–estimated finished steel […]
The U.S. exported 650,838 tons of flat rolled steel in August, according to final Census data, a 5 percent rise from July, and up 1 percent from the same month one year ago. This is the highest monthly export figure since July 2018 when 655,937 tons of steel were exported outside of the country. August […]
In September, the licensed import volume of rolled steel products was the lowest since February 2011, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data. Total rolled product imports in September declined by 15.5 percent year over year on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the […]
Prices for all steel products saw further declines this week as price momentum continues to point firmly downward. The benchmark hot rolled price set a new low for the year, below the $520 per ton level reached in June. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $480-$550 […]
Raw steel production by U.S. mills has been stuck in the high 70 percent range for the past seven weeks. The last time the utilization rate was above the desired mark of 80 percent was the week ending Aug. 24. Production for the most recent week ending Oct. 5 totaled 1,804,000 net tons at a […]
U.S. raw steel production in August fell 0.3 percent to 8,152,796 net tons, reports the American Iron and Steel Institute in Washington. August production is in line with the 2019 average of 8,147,242 tons and down 1.1 percent compared to the same month last year. Broken down by production method, 5,752,849 tons (70.6 percent) were […]