Category: US

Steel mill lead times for sheet products saw substantial declines over the past two weeks, while production times for plate held steady during the month of January.

Steel buyers said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week on all products SMU surveys, according to our most recent survey data.

Rising geopolitical tensions may threaten stability, while other factors like a climbing stock market and growing government investment point to one thing in the economy: it’s complicated. “It’s an interesting contradiction out there,” said Dr. Walter Kemmsies, managing partner of The Kemmsies Group, at the Tampa Steel Conference this week. In his keynote speech on […]

What a difference a few weeks make…. As this is our first column after the new year, it is quite interesting to observe how different the steel world looks at the end of January vs. the end of December. 

US housing starts moved lower in December, even as single-family production topped the million mark for the second straight month, according to the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.

Metalformers remain positive about business prospects for the first quarter of 2024, boosted by reported growth in January.

The LME three-month price was broadly stable on the morning of Jan. 19 and was last seen trading at $2,170 per metric ton (mt). The $2,200/mt level is now acting as a resistance it seems, but the break of the previous support level has not inspired a sell-off, at least not for now.  

While there was little change in economic activity since its last update, the Federal Reserve reported declines in manufacturing in nearly all districts in its January Beige Book update.

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index jumped this week, while the Future Sentiment Index remained flat, according to our most recent survey data.

Much discussion has centered on HRC futures and option liquidity. The perceived lack of liquidity is often used as a reason for not engaging in risk management, a profound folly in our opinion. Looking back over the last decade, the futures market has seen increased volume. The HRC futures volume in 2023 was 617% of 2013 numbers.

New York state saw manufacturing shrink in January, reaching its lowest reading since the depths of the pandemic in early 2020, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The slipping lead times for flat-rolled steel were not just due to the holiday slowdown, it seems, as production times for four out of five products contracted again this week.

Domestic buyers of steel sheet said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, according to our most recent survey data.

The LME three-month price was moving down again on the morning of Jan. 12 and was last seen trading at $2,215 per metric ton (mt). We expect a test of the $2,200/mt support to be imminent. A break would be bearish as it could mean a complete reversal of the gains seen in December, although we still estimate that as being unlikely.

After a holiday period that saw HR futures volumes somewhat muted in December, the first week of January brought with it increased interest reflected in higher volumes.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) gained traction in December thanks to improved commercial conditions, according to the latest Dodge Construction Network (DCN) data.

SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Indices both fell this week, with current sentiment taking a large dive to begin the new year, according to our most recent survey data.

Trading slowed across the Midwest hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures curve in the final weeks of 2023, with prices drifting mostly sideways through the month of December.

Steel mill lead times pulled back across the board this week but are still said to be at healthy levels, according to SMU's market survey this week.

The percentage of steel buyers saying mills were willing to negotiate spot pricing on the products SMU surveys was mixed this week.

An increase in residential construction brought total construction spending up by 0.4% in November, according to a report from the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). The uptick offsets a slowdown in public spending.

Domestic manufacturing activity receded for the 14th straight month, according to the latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI report.

We started 2023 with HRC spot pricing around $700 per ton and the third-month future (March ‘23) trading at $800/ton. That same future eventually settled at $1,059/ton - a $259/ton swing. Today, spot pricing is just shy of $1,100/ton for HRC, and the third-month future (March ‘24) settled at $1,091/ton. The clear takeaway: a lot can change over three months. And while future contracts are a valuable tool for hedging, they are a terrible predictor of price.

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reading from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek showed a slight uptick in November, but was still in negative territory.

Steel buying lead times remain mixed as we head into the last week of 2023, according to SMU's most recent survey data.

All of the products SMU surveys notched an increase in the percentage of buyers saying mills were willing to negotiate spot pricing, with the exception of cold rolled, according to our most recent survey data.

SMU’s Current Buyers Sentiment Index inched up this week, while the future index edged down, based on our most recent survey data.

US housing starts jumped in November on lower interest rates stimulating home buying, according to the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.

Mexican steel association Canacero has responded to a Dec. 13 letter from US senators, and disputes the claim of a “surge” of Mexican steel imports.

New York state saw a decline in manufacturing in December, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey.