
Wittbecker on Aluminum: Where are Midwest premiums headed?
Let's take a look at different tariff scenarios.
Let's take a look at different tariff scenarios.
Algoma Steel has resumed shipments to the US, effective Friday, March 14. And the Canadian steelmaker sees a potential opportunity with the current tariff situation.
Canada and the European Union are retaliating against what they deem to be unjustified tariffs on steel and aluminum by the United States.
Algoma Steel's net loss narrowed in the fourth quarter vs. a year earlier amid economic uncertainty and tariff-related issues.
Section 232 tariffs are expected to go into effect March 12.
Imposing country-of-origin duties plus the upwardly revised Section 232 duties would create an untenable value for Midwest P1020. Modeling the extreme outcome of 25% country-of-origin tariffs plus 25% Section 232 tariffs could put Midwest physical premiums as high as $0.65 per pound. No, that is not a typo: $0.65 per pound! Primary aluminum supply chains would rotate from importing Canadian aluminum to importing it from India, the Middle East, or other very distant origins. That is worrisome for manufacturers.
"We urge you to resist any requests for exceptions or exclusions and to continue standing strong on behalf of American steel," the companies wrote.
The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.
Facing an uncertain tariff trade war, Algoma Steel took action this week, halting steel shipments to the US, laying off employees, and prepping for an unknown future, according to local media reports.
The latest on the trade war
On 4 March, new 25% blanket tariffs across all products exported to the USA from Canada and Mexico are now in effect. The only exception is Canadian energy products, which will be assessed a 10% tariff.
Remember infrastructure week in Trump 1.0? It became a running joke. Because it was almost always derailed by whatever the scandal of the day was. In Trump 2.0, we've got tariff week. And unlike infrastructure week, tariff week is no joke.
“It is completely shocking for the United States to treat a long-time and fair trading partner in this manner,” the Canadian Steel Producers Association said.
These tariffs would significantly increase costs for American manufacturers that rely on Canadian metals. They would also disrupt supply chains and weaken economic ties that have benefited both nations for decades.
President Trump reaffirmed Monday afternoon that his 25% universal tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico would take effect on Tuesday. “Tomorrow – tariffs 25% on Canada and 25% on Mexico. And that’ll start,” Trump told reporters Monday, according to an Associated Press report. “They’re going to have to have a tariff.”
The main impact of tariffs on scrap prices would be felt in Northern states - and especially among those along the Canadian border. Many steelmakers in this area receive a substantial portion of their monthly scrap charge from Canadian processors. Much of it is prime scrap used by hot-rolled (HR) coil producers.
US rig counts remain just above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity is within earshot of a seven-year high.
That’s not to say Section 232 shouldn’t be tightened up. Or that certain trade practices – even among our traditional allies – weren’t problematic. But when it comes to the reboot of Section 232, I do wonder whether there will be some unintended consequences.
North American auto assemblies recovered in January, surging 33.4% above December and rebounding from a three-year low. However, according to LMC Automotive data, assemblies were still 0.1% lower year on year (y/y). After slumping in December to the lowest total since July 2021, January’s assemblies returned to typical seasonal levels. Sentiment remains tempered as carmakers […]
Tuesday, March 4, marks the end of a 30-day delay in the levies.
MPG Canada is laying off 140 workers across its facilities in Ontario and Quebec.
US primary output is at its lowest level this century
The latest in the new coated steel investigation and the expiry review of steel plate from six countries.
Unions members on both sides of the US-Canada border are speaking out against President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel. They say the tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and subvert decades of economic cooperation. The United Steelworkers (USW) has more than 850,000 total members in North America, with 225,000 in Canada.
The problem is that the situation in Washington is so fluid that no one really knows what to expect
While American steelmakers welcome the revival of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, other nations' steel industries are calling for retaliation against President Trump's unilateral action of upping the levies on trading allies and removing all product exemptions.
December 2024 marks the fourth month in a row that steel exports have declined, now at the lowest monthly rate recorded since December 2022.
Following the one-year low recorded in November, steel imports rose by 3% in December to 2.14 million short tons (st) according to final US Commerce Department data. January could be the highest month for steel imports witnessed in nearly three years.
The company’s plants had been shut since just before Christmas when the company locked out union workers during negotiations.
ArcelorMittal Dofasco is raising spot sheet prices by CA$100 per ton (US$70/ton). The Hamilton, Ontario-based flat rolled steelmaker told customers the increase is effective immediately for all new orders. It did not specify to what level this brings its base prices but noted its right to re-quote previous but unconfirmed orders. “We will continue to […]