We had begun to think that our projection for total housing starts to reach 1.6 million units annualized by the end of 2018 was optimistic but the June report put that projection back on track. Total starts in June were at an annual rate of 1,174,000 with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 1,144,000. […]
On Friday, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Now why did we go and do that? We have been stuck in a very tight trading range on most flat rolled steels since late April of this year. Benchmark hot rolled, which is used by most in the […]
NLMK USA second quarter crude steel production rose to 130,000 tonnes (143,298 tons), a 39 percent increase from the previous quarter. Finished steel output totaled 490,000 tonnes (540,123 tons), up 20 percent q/q. USA sales in Q2 grew 12 percent q/q to 480,000 tonnes (529,100 tons). Hot rolled steel production was up 20 percent to […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. This month the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been measuring “Sentiment” or, how buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful both in the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. We concluded our analysis earlier today and have determined that those involved in the flat rolled steel industry […]
Chevy is taking on the aluminum Ford F-150 with a series of ads sure to tickle consumers and annoy Ford marketers. The new ads for the Chevy Silverado poke fun at the F-150 while lauding the benefits of steel construction. The ads which are currently running in social media, point out the disadvantages of aluminum. […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 223,000 jobs were added in June which was in line with expectations. April and May were revised down by a total of 60,000. Monthly job gains have averaged 221,000 over the past three months. In the 12 months prior to June, employment growth […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put In Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. May data was released on Wednesday July 1st and historical data was revised back to January 2013. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for […]
The Department of Commerce said Wednesday that it will proceed on AD/CVD investigations of imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from China, India, Italy, Korea, and Taiwan. A petition to investigate the products was filed on June 3, 2015 by US Steel, Nucor, ArcelorMittal USA, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics, and California Steel Industries. The products covered […]
The Architecture Billings Index rose to 51.9 in May from 47.8 in April. The Index, which reflects the approximate nine to 12 month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, showed an increase in demand for new schools, hospitals, cultural facilities and municipal buildings last month. The ABI, published monthly by the American Institute […]
Worthington Industries closed fourth quarter FY 2015 with net sales of $846 million and net earnings of $28.9 million. Quarter earnings were negatively impacted by pre-tax impairment, restructuring and other charges, totaling $6.5 million. Earnings in Q4 2014 were $33.2 million. Steel processing net sales dropped 4 percent y/y to $540 million due to lower […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Wednesday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate was -0.17 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and […]
This piece, written by Peter Wright, combines our own data analysis with recently published opinions about the iron ore, metallurgical coal and zinc markets that we find credible. Iron Ore: The Platts IODEX of 62 percent Fe delivered North China recovered to $61.25 on March 22nd, continued its upward trend in June then on June […]
New home sales were at a seven year high in May, climbing 2.2 percent from April to an a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales outpaced the Bloomberg forecast of 523,000 and were 19.5 percent above […]
Steel Dynamics reported adjusted second quarter earnings guidance in the range of $0.20 to $0.24 per share, an improvement over $0.17 per share in first quarter. Not included in the earnings guidance is $29 million of expenses associated with the idling of the Minnesota operations and $9 million in reduced earnings due to a planned […]
SMU Sentiment Index Jumps Since our last flat rolled steel market analysis and evaluation of how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful both three to six months from now (Future) as well as in today’s economic environment (Current), we have had a second price increase and a dumping […]
Nucor’s second quarter guidance indicates earnings in the range of $0.20 to $0.25 per diluted share, below analyst consensus of $0.30 per share for the quarter. Earnings decreased from Q2 2014 at $0.46 per share and are comparable to $0.21 in Q1 2015. Overall operating performance is down from Q1. Prices are beginning to stabilize, […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.102 for May, down by 0.18 from April and down from the all-time high of 106.309 in November last year. The three month moving average, (3MMA) in May was 105.40, down by 0.23 from April. January […]
The surprisingly strong housing starts result for April was not repeated in May but the three month moving average did increase. Total starts were 1,036,000 down from 1,165,000 in April. This is an example of why we always focus on three month moving averages (3MMA) at SMU and don’t get too excited or depressed by […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Friday reported results through May. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
The $1.3 billion Big River Steel mill, in Osceola, Ark., is beginning to take shape. The site excavation, totaling 1,178,000 cubic yard, is nearly 100 percent complete, said Mark Bula, Chief Commercial Office in a progress report to Steel Market Update. About 26 percent of the 235,000 cubic yards of concrete that will be needed […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 280,000 jobs were added in May and the March and April result was revised up by a total of 32,000. Economists had expected U.S. employers to add 220,000 jobs last month. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of gains through May was 207,000 […]
According to Investopedia, a subsidy is “a benefit given by the government to groups or individuals usually in the form of a cash payment or tax reduction. The subsidy is usually given to remove some type of burden and is often considered to be in the interest of the public.” The example accompanying the definition […]
The Dodge Momentum Index was unchanged in May at 122.3. The Index, a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, has been flat so far in 2015 after growing in 2014. Although, May activity was at a standstill, the Index was still 6.1 percent higher compared to a year ago. […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our flat rolled steel analysis over the past four days. Based on the responses collected from those taking our survey we found a continuation of the optimistic trend that we have seen for a number of years now but, when compared to 2nd Quarter 2014 our index has been disappointing […]
The “not if but when” question has been settled as the long awaited trade case filing on galvanized steel finally occurred on Wednesday. Six domestic steel mills submitted a petition to the Department of Commerce asking for the imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on certain corrosion-resistant steel products from China, the Republic of Korea, […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. April data was released on Monday this week. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Construction of Essar Steel’s Minnesota taconite operation is accelerating now that the project is fully financed. The $1.9 billion project near Nashwauk involves the construction of a taconite plant with a total annual production capacity of 7.0 million tons of iron ore pellets. The pellets will be initially sent to Essar Steel Algoma and to […]