Much discussion has centered on HRC futures and option liquidity. The perceived lack of liquidity is often used as a reason for not engaging in risk management, a profound folly in our opinion. Looking back over the last decade, the futures market has seen increased volume. The HRC futures volume in 2023 was 617% of 2013 numbers.
What are people in the steel marketplace talking about this week?
The United Steelworkers (USW) union is accusing U.S. Steel of labor contract violations as the steelmaker pursues its potential sale to Nippon Steel.
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects this past week, including purchasing practices, steel sheet prices, scrap, and the future market.
Trading slowed across the Midwest hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures curve in the final weeks of 2023, with prices drifting mostly sideways through the month of December.
After meeting with Nippon Steel, the United Steelworkers (USW) union remains weary of the company’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel.
We started 2023 with HRC spot pricing around $700 per ton and the third-month future (March ‘23) trading at $800/ton. That same future eventually settled at $1,059/ton - a $259/ton swing. Today, spot pricing is just shy of $1,100/ton for HRC, and the third-month future (March ‘24) settled at $1,091/ton. The clear takeaway: a lot can change over three months. And while future contracts are a valuable tool for hedging, they are a terrible predictor of price.
U.S. Steel on Thursday afternoon said it expected lower earnings in the fourth quarter compared to the third. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker predicted fourth-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) of approximately $250 million, or $0.20-$0.25 per diluted share.
United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain outlined the union’s strategy to unionize nonunion auto workers in the US.
The LME Aluminum 3-month price is moving up again on the morning of Dec. 8 and was last seen trading at $2,157 per metric ton. The way the price increased first thing in the morning suggests a support may have finally been found, but resistance could hit quickly at $2,200 /metric ton. SHFE cash was […]
Oct. 26 was my previous Steel Market Update contribution. The night before, Ford and the United Auto Workers (UAW) announced they had reached a tentative agreement for a new labor contract.
Non-union workers from 13 automakers are making moves to join the Detroit-based United Auto Workers (UAW) union.
SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices have both increased, based on our most recent survey data as of Wednesday, Nov. 22.
United Auto Workers (UAW) union members at Ford and Stellantis have joined their compatriots at General Motors in voting to ratify new labor contracts. That’s according to vote tallies posted by the union. The count was lopsided in favor of the new deal at Ford (69% of votes for ratification) and Stellantis (70% of votes […]
United Auto Workers (UAW) union members seem poised to ratify contracts at Ford and Stellantis, according to UAW vote trackers and media reports.
United Auto Workers (UAW) members have ratified a new labor contract with Detroit-based General Motors, the largest US automaker. In other words, the UAW strike that began on Sept. 15 - and that rattled the steel industry in the months leading up to it - is almost in the rear-view mirror.
On SMU's Nov. 15, 2023, Community Chat, the CEO of the Center for Automotive Research discussed steel's role in the automotive industry's transition to EVs.
In the dynamic landscape of the steel futures market, a confluence of factors is shaping the current narrative.
Sheet prices are up again. That shouldn’t come as a surprise on the heels of mill price hikes, scrap settling up and expected to move higher over the next few months, and inventories – as our premium subscribers will learn tomorrow – moving lower for a third month.
United Auto Workers (UAW) members at plants in Louisville, Ky., and Flint, Mich., have voted against ratifying the contracts with two of the “Big Three” Detroit-area automakers.
Center for Automotive Research (CAR) president and CEO Alan Amici will be the featured speaker on Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Nov. 15, at 12 p.m. ET. You can register here.
Lead times for most sheet products were pushed out even further this week as domestic prices continue to rise. Plate lead times, meanwhile, contracted on falling prices and waning demand.
Several past columns in SMU have included comments about the futures forward curve, using terms like contango and backwardation
Algoma Steel said its quarterly earnings were impacted by falling steel prices and lower buying associated with the United Auto Workers (UAW) strikes in the US. But with the strikes wrapping up, it expects a recovery in both pricing and demand moving forward.
Northwest Pipe reported declining third-quarter earnings but remains upbeat about its fourth-quarter performance.
Manufacturing activity in the US contracted once again during the month of October.
Latin American flat-rolled steelmaker Ternium is seeing strong demand in Mexico, its main market. With its new mill in Pesquería, Mexico, up and running, more lines there set to come online, and the company now holding an increased stake in Brazilian mining and steel company Usiminas, Luxembourg-based Ternium is optimistic about the future direction of the company.
The “Big Three” Detroit-area automakers' tentative labor agreements are set to expire on April 30, 2028, six months longer than the normal four-year agreements.
SMU will host a Community Chat on Wednesday Nov. 15 at 12 pm ET with Alan Amici, president and CEO of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR). The webinar is free for all to attend live. A recording will be available to SMU subscribers. You can register here.
Ford and United Auto Workers (UAW) leaders confirmed on Wednesday evening that they had reached a tentative labor agreement. “Ford is proud to assemble the most vehicles in America and employ the most hourly autoworkers,” Ford CEO and President Jim Farley said in a statement sent to SMU. “We are focused on restarting Kentucky Truck […]